Is the American dollar going down? The dollar accelerated its fall against major currencies Thursday as traders lowered bets on an aggressive Fed borrowing cost increase following softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data a day earlier.
The dollar index to a basket of six major currencies, DXY fell 0.19% to 104.993. A day earlier, the greenback recorded its biggest daily drop of 1% over the previous day.
Why is the dollar going down against the euro? The dollar fell after the release of the US inflation data, with consumer prices unchanged in July compared to a 1.3% month-on-month increase in June. The July statistics came in lower than expected due to a sharp drop in gasoline prices, leading markets to believe again that the inflation ceiling is near.
The Fed is still “very, very far from declaring victory” over inflation, Minneapolis Fed Chairman Neel Kashkari said after the CPI release. He said the need to raise the Fed’s key rate to 3.9 percent by the end of this year and to 4.4 percent by the end of 2023 has not changed since the data release.
“Yesterday’s statistics clearly signaled a reduced likelihood of a further aggressive move by the Fed (+75 basis points) and hence helps reduce demand for the dollar, but equally, we believe that this data alone is not enough for a subsequent sell-off in the currency,” MUFG currency analysts said.
Earlier we reported that FX rate EUR/USD depends on US CPI.
History low for the pound British
Today we can observe history low for the British pound. The British pound has fallen in the international forex market by almost 5% against the dollar – to a record low of $1.0384. The pound fell 0.85% against the U.S. dollar to $1.0762.
The British currency depreciated after the Ministry of Finance of the country promised to continue cutting taxes, raising fears that the new policy will lead to a sharp rise in inflation and the national debt, Bloomberg wrote. The pound’s collapse was the biggest intraday drop since March 2020, when markets were panicked by the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the publication estimated.
The sell-off in the currency began on Friday, after the government announced a plan for a massive tax cut in the U.K., which will affect individuals and businesses and increase the budget deficit.
“History low for the British pound shows that markets do not trust the UK,” said Saxo Capital Markets strategist Jessica Amir. – The pound is one step away from parity with the dollar, and things will only get worse from here.”
The British currency has already fallen 20% against the dollar this year. According to Bloomberg, the fall in the British pound sterling in 2022 surpassed the collapse seen after the vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) in 2016. At that time, the U.K. currency depreciated by about 16% in one year.
Earlier we reported that the dollar is getting cheaper against most currencies after rising the day before.
The dollar is getting cheaper against most currencies after rising the day before. Global money is getting cheaper
The dollar is getting cheaper against the euro, the yen and the pound sterling today after a solid rise in the previous session on the background of the fact that all the world’s money’s getting cheaper.
The dollar is correcting because investors are trying to fix profits after its significant strengthening, said Trading Economics. Experts believe that the U.S. currency will continue to strengthen on the background of a rapid tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (FRS). Also, the dollar is supported by reducing the appetite for risk in world markets.
Further growth in volatility in the financial markets will strengthen the dollar because of its status as a “safe haven” currency, said an analyst on the currency market, CBA Carol Kong.
The euro rose 0.53% to $0.9660 against the dollar, up from $0.9609 at the close of the previous session. The day before, European currencies were cheaper against the dollar by 0.8%.
The pound rose by 1.07% to $1.0803 during the trading session, compared to $1.0689 the day before. The exchange rate of the dollar against yen decreased by 0.30% – down to 144.31 yen against 144.75 yen by the end of the previous session. On Monday the American currency grew by 1.5% against the pound and by 1% against the yen.
The index, calculated by ICE, which shows the dollar trend against six currencies (euro, Swiss franc, yen, Canadian dollar, pound sterling and the Swedish krone), was losing 0.5% during trading. The day before, the indicator had updated its 20-year high.
Earlier we reported that the Nasdaq is on the plus side amid signs that growth stocks are recovering.
Nasdaq index rises again amid signs growth stocks are recovering
The Nasdaq index rises again early in Monday’s session as growth stocks try to recover from a sharp sell-off sparked by fears that Fed action will lead to a recession.
The S&P 500 also showed signs of stabilizing after briefly falling below its mid-June closing low of 3.666 on Friday, nearly wiping out the sharp rebound it had achieved over the summer.
The Fed’s announcement that high interest rates could hold out until late 2023 sent the three major U.S. stock indexes down 4-5% last week, with the Dow Jones index near bear market territory on Friday.
Growth was led by sectors that included securities of mega-capitalization companies, including technology S5INFT, communications services S5TELS, and consumer discretionary S5COND.
Shares of Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, amazon.com Inc, and Tesla Inc, rose 0.9 percent to 2.0 percent, supporting the current Nasdaq index.
“We’re just seeing gains driven by a sense of relief after a very tough period for the Nasdaq and growth stocks,” said Jeffrey Schulze of ClearBridge Investments.
“Obviously, the last month has been very tough for growth stocks as investors re-evaluate higher Fed rates and, ultimately, the ultimate rate of this cycle of monetary policy tightening.”
Earlier we reported that Wall Street closed in the negative; the Dow confirmed a bear market.
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