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Forex

Japan issues fresh warning on yen drops, signals readiness to intervene

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By Leika Kihara

STRESA, Italy (Reuters) -Japan stands ready to take appropriate action in the market “any time” to counter excessive moves in the yen, its top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Friday, issuing a fresh warning on the chance of renewed exchange-rate intervention.

Kanda also said he was in frequent and close contact with overseas counterparts, particularly in the U.S., on issues including financial markets.

“Under a flexible exchange-rate regime, we won’t need to intervene if currency moves are stable. But if there are excessively volatile moves that have an adverse effect on the economy, we need to take action, and doing so would be justified,” Kanda told reporters.

“We are ready to act any time as needed against currency moves,” he said after accompanying Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki for the first-day session of the G7 finance leaders’ meeting in the northern Italian city of Stresa.

Kanda made his remarks a day after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said currency interventions should be used only rarely and in a well-communicated way.

At the Group of Seven meeting, Japan told its counterparts that vigilance was needed against excessive volatility in the currency market that was driven by speculative moves, Kanda said.

Japan also told the meeting it was important to “respond appropriately” to excessive, disorderly moves in the currency market that would hurt the economy, he added.

Japan will push for the G7 finance leaders’ communique to include language reaffirming the group’s stance that excessive and volatile currency moves were undesirable, he said.

Kanda, who oversees Japan’s currency policy as vice finance minister for international affairs, declined to comment when asked about the yen’s recent declines.

The yen has lost 11% against the dollar this year on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will be in no rush to cut interest rates, which would keep the divergence between U.S. rates and Japan’s ultra-low rates large.

SUSPECTED INTERVENTION

A weak yen has become a headache for Japanese policymakers as it hurts consumption by inflating the cost of raw material imports.

Japan is suspected to have intervened in the currency market to prop up the yen on April 29 and May 2 to arrest what authorities described as excessive, speculative currency moves.

While the suspected intervention has kept the yen from falling below the psychologically important 160-to-the-dollar line, the Japanese currency has yet to stage a clear rebound. It stood at 156.98 to the dollar on Friday, not far from the more than three-week low of 157.19 touched on Thursday.

Markets see the 160-to-the-dollar level as a line in the sand for authorities that heightens the chance of yen-buying intervention. Tokyo stepped into the market when the Japanese currency slid below that level.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Japan's vice minister of finance for international affairs, Masato Kanda, poses for a photograph during an interview with Reuters at the Finance Ministry in Tokyo, Japan January 31, 2022. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

The G7 group of advanced nations share a common understanding that stable currency moves are desirable and that countries have authority to take action in the market when exchange-rate moves become too volatile.

Tokyo has argued this G7 agreement gives it freedom to intervene in the currency market to counter excessive yen moves.

Forex

PBoC adjusts policy amid rising USD demand

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The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) responded to increasing demand for the US dollar by adjusting its cross-border macroprudential parameter.

The central bank’s decision to raise the parameter from 1.50 to 1.75 allows domestic corporations and financial institutions to engage in more cross-border borrowing.

The adjustment came as the foreign exchange settlement balance for banks’ clients showed a deficit of $10.5 billion, marking the first negative reading since July 2024. This deficit contrasts with the previous month’s figures. The rise in demand for the US dollar was particularly noticeable in service trade transactions.

Recent weeks have seen domestic importers actively purchasing US dollars through foreign exchange forwards. This move is a strategy to hedge against potential risks associated with tariffs, which has contributed to an upward push on forward points.

The PBoC’s policy change on January 13 reflects efforts to manage market expectations regarding foreign exchange rates.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Macquarie sees stable USD/CAD trend, eyes 1.35 mid-year target

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On Wednesday, Macquarie analysts provided insights into the potential future movements of the Canadian dollar (CAD) against the US dollar (USD).

They indicated that the fears of heavy-handed US import tariffs are unlikely to materialize immediately after the inauguration, suggesting that the USD’s rally against the EUR, CAD, and other currencies might not extend beyond the first quarter of the year.

The analysts highlighted that despite the initial threats of tariffs, Canada is expected to grow even closer to the United States in the coming years. This projection is based on several factors including Canada’s domestic politics, foreign policy, border and immigration policies, as well as trade and capital account flows, all of which demonstrate aligned interests with the US. The anticipated renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is expected to cement this relationship further.

According to Macquarie, this closer relationship between Canada and the US will lead to a much more stable exchange rate in the future. They predict that as a result of these developments, the USD/CAD pair will experience a downward drift, potentially reaching a mid-year target of 1.35.

The stability in the USD/CAD exchange rate is seen as a reflection of the ‘merger trend’ context, where the two economies continue to integrate and align, leading to less exchange rate fluctuation. Macquarie’s analysis projects a calmer period ahead for the currency pair, which has historically been influenced by trade policies and geopolitical factors.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Dollar edges higher; Trump’s speech at Davos in spotlight

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Investing.com – The US dollar lifted slightly Thursday, but remained in a tight trading range ahead of a speech by President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum.

At 04:15 ET (09:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher to 108.150, after starting the week with a drop of over 1%.

Dollar treads water 

The dollar has largely treaded water over the last couple of days as traders await more clarity over President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs, following the sharp fall on Monday as his first day in office brought a barrage of executive orders, but none on tariffs.

He has subsequently talked about levies of around 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China from Feb. 1, as well as mentioning duties on European imports, but without concrete action.

Trump speaks later in the session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and traders are eagerly awaiting any comments on this topic as well as for his position on major geopolitical and economic issues such as the Ukraine-Russia war and the economic rivalry with China.

“This week’s dollar correction has not gone too far. Despite the heavy one-way positioning of the dollar, investors lack clarity on the timing of Trump’s tariff threats, preventing them from reducing dollar holdings,” said analysts at ING, in a note.  

Also causing traders to pause for breath is the spate of central bank policy decisions due over the next week, including the on Friday, ahead of the and the next week.

Euro lower ahead of ECB meeting

In Europe, slipped 0.1% lower to 1.0404, with the single currency weak ahead of next week’s ECB meeting, with an interest rate cut largely seen as a done deal.

“This week’s EUR/USD bounce has been pretty muted so far,” said ING. “There is no way investors can expect to hear an ‘all-clear’ signal on tariffs. And keeping trading partners off balance/guessing is a tactic that kept the dollar reasonably well bid during Trump’s last tariff regime in 2018-19.”

traded 0.1% lower to 1.2304, while rose 0.2% to 11.3035 ahead of a policy-setting meeting by the later in the session.

“Norges Bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold today,” ING said. “On the whole, the key variables monitored by NB have not clearly argued a rate cut should be pushed beyond March. Also, the risks to global growth related to Trump’s protectionism plans should encourage policymakers to allow some breathing room with a rate cut before the end of the first quarter.”

BOJ meeting to conclude Friday

In Asia, traded largely unchanged at 156.47, ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting, which concludes on Friday.

The BoJ is widely expected to raise interest rates as recent inflation and wage data have been encouraging, and the central bank is likely to signal further interest rate hikes if the economy maintains its recovery

traded 0.2% higher to 7.2877, with the Chinese currency weaker on fears Trump will confirm US tariffs on Chinese imports, hitting the second largest economy in the world.

 

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