Forex
Japanese yen surges, ringing intervention alarm bells
LONDON (Reuters) -The Japanese yen surged nearly 3% on Thursday in its biggest daily rise since late 2022, a move that local media attributed to a round of official buying to prop up a currency that has languished at 38-year lows.
The dollar dropped to as low as 157.40, straight after data showed U.S.consumer inflation cooled more than expected in June.
Yet the scale and speed of the move put traders on alert to the possibility of Japanese intervention. Authorities stepped in as recently as early May to bolster the yen.
Local Japanese television station Asahi, citing government sources, said officials intervened in the currency market.
Domestic news service Jiji cited top currency diplomat Masato Kanda as saying he could not comment on whether or not there was an intervention, but that recent moves in the yen were “not in line with fundamentals”.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance, which has made it standard practice not to comment on activity in the FX market, and the New York Federal Reserve were not immediately available to requests for comment from Reuters.
Several currency analysts and traders initially said they thought the yen surge was probably triggered by options-related activity following the consumer price report that bolstered the Federal Reserve’s case to cut rates as early as September.
However, as the yen strengthened, others said the move bore the hallmarks of official buying.
“The MOF won’t confirm this for some time but the extent of the move gives a strong impression that it has been active and taken advantage of the post U.S. CPI data to take action,” said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets in London.
Investors have relentlessly sold the yen for months, given how much lower interest rates are in Japan than anywhere else, which has created a build-up of bearish positions in the Japanese currency that some will have been forced to unwind.
The dollar was last trading at 158.70 yen, down 1.8% on the day, its lowest since mid-June.
The gap between U.S. and Japanese rates has created a highly lucrative trading opportunity, in which traders borrow the yen at low rates to invest in dollar-priced assets for a higher return, known a carry trade.
ROLLERCOASTER MARKETS
Thursday’s U.S. inflation data raised the chances of that gap shrinking more quickly.
The futures market shows traders now fully expect a September rate cut from the Fed and roughly 60 basis points of easing by year-end, compared with around 45 bps earlier this week, which undermines the dollar.
“The thing is the market position is so extended that it can feed on itself very, very easily,” James Malcolm, head of FX strategy at UBS and veteran Japan watcher, said.
“Regardless of whether you think it should be stabilising, if dollar-yen is dropping and you’re long, you have to get out… that’s the definition of a classic carry unwind.”
The yen strengthened across the board, leaving the euro down 2% at 171.60 yen, while sterling fell 1.4% to 204.72 yen. The Australian dollar, which fell to 107.50 yen.
The most recent weekly data from the U.S. regulator showed speculators are sitting on bets against the yen worth $14.26 billion, not far from April’s 6-1/2 year high, according to LSEG data.
Theoretically, the larger a bearish position, the greater the scope for investors to reverse course, which in this case, would boost the yen against the dollar.
Investing.com – The US dollar has gained more ground as the US presidential election draws near, UBS noted, with the market seeing rising odds of a win for Republican candidate Donald Trump.
A new USD-positive over the past week has been media reports of somewhat better outlook for Donald Trump in the latest polls, as outcomes that allow for policies such as more aggressive tariffs are viewed as more USD positive.
“Higher odds of a Trump presidency are likely to be associated with a stronger USD near term,” said analysts at UBS, in a note dated Oct. 16.
Where does this leave us now with our USD views?
Our expected ranges between Sep–Dec 2024 incorporated the possibility of a material USD rebound between now and year end, even if our year-end forecasts see a modestly lower USD from current levels.
Last week, with an eye to our year end forecast, we entered a long call reverse knockout, but we are not willing to implement a similar trade yet for and .
The spot is still far enough from our range extremes and high JPY implied volatility and negative carry make long JPY positions unattractive so close to US elections.
Turning to this week’s ECB meeting, the market is very confident that another 25bp rate cut will be delivered and we do not have a strong reason to disagree.
Market expectations are very muted for any form of surprise, and risk reversal skews bid again for EUR puts point to a market that is already primed for the risk of EUR softness.
With market pricing in line with our economists’ terminal rate expectations, we see EUR/USD as more exposed to US developments near-term, leaving us reluctant to fade recent softness on ECB reasons alone.
At 06:30 ET (10:30 GMT), EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.0894, USD/JPY gained 0.1% to 149.34 and AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.6685.
Investing.com – The European Central Bank holds its latest policy-setting meeting later this week, and Citigroup advises selling any rallies in the euro around this key event.
Markets are pricing in around 49 basis points of easing over the remaining two ECB meetings this year, which could limit dovish repricing around Thursday’s event, according to analysts at Citi, in a note dated Oct. 15.
“We see scope for a tactical bounce in EUR around this Thursday’s ECB meeting, which we like fading into November as US election risk premium materializes,” Citi said.
That said, “we like fading any subsequent rallies in EUR as we approach November and US election risk premium gets better priced.”
There is some evidence of this unfolding, the bank added, as EUR looks undervalued on its short-term fair value model and as Citi’s FX Positioning data suggests adding to EUR shorts.
“But our broader FX election basket still screens as undervalued relative to Trump betting markets, and we remain short EURUSD in both spot and options,” says Citi. “We would look to sell any retest of the 1.10 double top neckline — any break above there risks a move towards our adjusted stop of 1.1050, but if that resistance holds, we have higher conviction of a move towards our (and the double top) target of 1.08, with potential overshoot towards 1.07.”
At 05:25 ET (09:25 GMT), traded largely flat at 1.0892, almost 2% lower over the last month.
Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged higher Wednesday, trading near two-month peaks on expectations of modest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, while sterling slumped after benign inflation data.
At 04:15 ET (08:15 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 103.180, remaining close to Monday’s two-month peak.
Dollar helped by trimmed rate cut expectations
Recent data indicating a resilient economy coupled with slightly hotter-than-expected inflation in September have led market participants to trim bets for an aggressive U.S. rate reduction.
Adding to these expectations were comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve President on Tuesday, who said he had penciled in just one more interest rate reduction of 25 basis points this year when he updated his projections for last month’s U.S. central bank meeting.
Most market participants see two more cuts this year, totaling 50 bps, and traders currently lay 92% odds for a 25-basis-point cut when the Fed next decides policy on Nov. 7, with an 8% probability of no change, according to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool.
Sterling slumps after inflation release
In Europe, slumped 0.5% to 1.3003, after data showed British inflation fell more than expected in September, paving the way for a rate cut next month.
The UK’s fell to 1.7% on an annual basis, below the forecast 1.9% and the 2.2% recorded a month earlier.
This was the first time it had fallen below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021, and added to data seen earlier in the week that showed British pay grew at its slowest pace in more than two years.
“The data is unequivocally dovish for the Bank of England and paves the way for rate cuts at the two remaining meetings this year (November and December),” said analysts at ING, in a note.
“Given the comments by Governor Andrew Bailey earlier this month suggesting the BoE could increase the pace of easing, markets may be tempted to price in some chance of a 50bp rate cut in November.”
traded 0.1% lower to 1.0882, ahead of Thursday’s policy-setting meeting by the European Central Bank.
The has already lowered rates twice this year and a cut to the 3.5% deposit rate this week is almost fully priced in by financial markets.
“EUR/USD is predominantly driven by external factors. The substantial drop in oil prices has narrowed the scope for a further drop based on market factors, but we continue to suspect that pre-US election positioning should favor a weaker EUR/USD,” said ING.
Yuan nurses weekly losses
fell slightly to 7.1179, with the yuan nursing losses this week as sentiment soured over the country’s plans for more stimulus.
China’s Ministry of Finance said it will enact a slew of fiscal measures to boost growth, but did not specify the timing or size of the planned measures, spurring uncertainty over its effectiveness.
rose 0.2% to 149.43, with the pair climbing closer to the 150 resistance level.
data due later this week is expected to offer more cues on the Bank of Japan’s plans to hike rates further.
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