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Latam FX set to close fourth week in green as dollar slides

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Latin American currencies were on track for their fourth straight week of gains on Friday as the dollar headed for its biggest weekly slide since January after an intense week of central bank actions.

MSCI’s Latin American currencies index (.MILA00000CUS) rose 0.4% and was set to post weekly gains of 1.4%, benefiting from attractive yields, weaker dollar and hopes of more policy stimulus from China.

“What’s different about Latam is that central banks in general have moved much ahead of the Fed and ECB (European Central Bank) and most other developing countries. And right now you have had for a while very high interest rates that are bringing inflation down,” said Pablo Riveroll, head of Latam equities for Schroders.

“That’s making real rates very attractive for foreign investors.”

The U.S. dollar recovered 0.1% on Friday but was still set for its worst week in over five months following a slew of central bank decisions, including the Bank of Japan maintaining its ultra-easy monetary policy, the Fed keeping rates unchanged but signaling more hikes, and ECB hiking by a quarter percentage point.

The Brazilian real, (BRBY) eased 0.1% even after data showed economic activity kicked off the second quarter with stronger momentum than expected, following positive surprises in the first three months that were largely driven by the farm sector.

“The headlines are relatively positive, but if you check the details you will probably see that economic activity in key sectors is slowing,” said Andres Abadia, Latam Chief Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“These numbers are showing that high interest rates are starting to bite.”

The data comes amid heightened speculation about looming rate cuts in Brazil, with analysts saying risks to the economy remained later in the year.

The Mexican peso climbed 0.5% against the greenback with the currency of the oil exporter supported by a rise in crude prices.

Mexico and the European Union agreed to quickly finalize an updated free trade deal, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Thursday.

Colombia’s peso and Chile’s peso slipped 0.2% each against the dollar.

The Peruvian sol advanced 0.6% and was at its highest in over a year.

Peru’s central bank on Friday said that it forecasts mining investment in the Andean country to fall 18.9% this year.

Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos said in a note there are headwinds to economic activity beyond the first quarter including “the fading impulse from economic reopening, tight domestic monetary and financial conditions, high levels of household indebtedness.”

The Latam equities index (.MILA00000PUS) was flat, while Argentina’s Merval jumped 4.3%.

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