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Forex

Major Russian lenders say yuan coffers empty, urge central bank action

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By Elena Fabrichnaya

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Major Russian banks have called on the central bank to take action to counter a yuan liquidity deficit, which has led to the rouble tumbling to its lowest level since April against the Chinese currency and driven yuan swap rates into triple digits.

The rouble fell by almost 5% against the yuan on Sept. 4 on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) after the finance ministry’s plans for forex interventions implied that the central bank’s daily yuan sales would plunge in the coming month to the equivalent of $200 million.

The central bank had been selling $7.3 billion worth of yuan per day during the past month. The plunge coincided with oil giant Rosneft’s 15 billion yuan bond placement, which also sapped liquidity from the market.

“We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” said Sberbank CEO German Gref, stressing that the central bank needed to participate more actively in the market.

The yuan has become the most traded foreign currency on MOEX after Western sanctions halted exchange trade in dollars and euros, with many banks developing yuan-denominated products for their clients.

Yuan liquidity is mainly provided by the central bank through daily sales and one-day yuan swaps, as well as through currency sales by exporting companies.

Chinese banks in Russia, meanwhile, are avoiding currency trading for fear of secondary Western sanctions.

At the start of September, banks raised a record 35 billion yuan from the central bank through its one-day swaps.

“I think the central bank can do something. They hopefully understand the need to increase the liquidity offer through swaps,” said Andrei Kostin, CEO of second-largest lender VTB, stressing that exporters should sell more yuan as well.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Chinese Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo

The acute yuan shortage also follows months of delays in payments for trade with Russia by Chinese banks, which have grown wary of dealing with Russia after U.S. threats of secondary Western sanctions. These problems culminated in August in billions of yuan being stuck in limbo.

Russia and China have been discussing a joint system for bilateral payments, but no breakthrough is in sight. VTB’s Kostin said that since Russia’s trade with China was balanced, establishing a clearing mechanism for payments in national currencies should not be a problem.

Forex

British pound slides amidst rising gilt yields and fiscal concerns

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Investing.com — The British pound continued its recent decline against the dollar and the euro on Monday, driven by rising investor worries about the fiscal sustainability of Britain as gilt yields increased for the sixth consecutive day.

Sterling depreciated as much as 0.7% against the dollar, reaching $1.2103, its lowest since November 2023. It later settled with a 0.6% drop at $1.2125. In comparison to the euro, the pound was down 0.2% at 84.10 pence.

The pound has become a focus of global currency traders due to the impact of soaring global bond yields, primarily originating from the United States, on British markets. These rising yields stem from concerns about increasing inflation and a reduced likelihood of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Strong U.S. labor market data released on Friday added fuel to the global bond yields, leading money markets to stop fully pricing in any rate cut from the Fed this year. Although higher yields often bolster the currency, analysts in Britain anticipate that the government may need to cut spending or increase taxes to adhere to its fiscal rules, which could potentially affect future growth.

On Monday, Britain’s 10-year gilt yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.879%, slightly below last week’s 2008 high of 4.925%. It had increased by over 24 basis points last week, marking its largest weekly rise in a year. Bond yields and prices have an inverse relationship. The 30-year yield in Britain reached its highest level in 27 years on Monday, hitting 5.472%.

This week, attention is also likely to center on British inflation data set to be released on Wednesday, which could influence the Bank of England’s monetary policy in the near term. Consumer prices are projected to have increased by 2.6% annually in December, matching November’s rate, while core CPI is expected to have eased to 3.4% from 3.5%.

Futures markets are currently pricing in around 16 basis points of easing at the BoE’s February meeting, which suggests approximately a 65% chance of a quarter-point rate cut.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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China boosts support for yuan, increases overseas borrowing limits

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Investing.com — In a bid to bolster its weakening currency, China has unveiled plans to store more dollars in Hong Kong and improve capital flows. The measures, announced on Monday, include allowing companies to increase their overseas borrowing.

The yuan has been struggling, hovering near 16-month lows amid a dominant dollar, falling Chinese bond yields, and the looming threat of higher trade barriers as Donald Trump’s U.S. presidency begins next week.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has been taking steps to halt the yuan’s decline since late last year, including issuing warnings against speculative moves and taking measures to support yields. On Monday, authorities reiterated their warnings against speculating against the yuan and increased the limits for offshore borrowings by companies, a move aimed at allowing more foreign exchange to flow into the country.

PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng addressed the Asia Financial Forum in Hong Kong, stating that the central bank plans to considerably increase the proportion of China’s foreign exchange reserves in Hong Kong. However, he did not provide further details. China’s foreign reserves were around $3.2 trillion at the end of December, but little is known about where these reserves are invested.

The currency has lost more than 3% to the dollar since the U.S. election in early November, due to concerns that Trump’s proposed new trade tariffs could put additional pressure on the struggling Chinese economy.

The PBOC has been setting its official midpoint guidance on the stronger side of market projections since mid-November, which analysts interpret as a sign of concern over the yuan’s decline.

The central bank also announced other measures in recent days, including suspending treasury bond purchases and planning to issue large amounts of bills in Hong Kong. These steps aim to prevent yields from falling too much and to control the circulation of yuan offshore.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Rising dollar pressures peers as further Fed rate cuts questioned

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By Samuel Indyk and Rae Wee

LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar rose on Monday, driving its peers to multi-year lows, after Friday’s blowout U.S. jobs report underscored the strength of the economy and muddied the outlook for further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

The , which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of currencies, surged to its highest in more than two years on Monday to peak at 110.17, extending the recent rally.

Friday’s data showed U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, leaving traders heavily scaling back bets of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Markets were now no longer fully pricing in even one rate cut from the Fed in 2025, down from roughly two quarter-point cuts priced at the start of the year.

With Wednesday’s reading on U.S. inflation up next, any upside surprise could further close the door on future easing. A slew of Fed officials are also due to speak this week.

“If you look back at the last year there were worries and signs that there were cracks in the labour market emerging, but they seem to have been fully plastered, not just papered over,” said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura.

“The U.S. economy is resilient enough to justify a strong dollar and justify relatively higher rates.”

Adding to expectations of a less aggressive easing cycle is the view that President-elect Donald Trump’s plans for hefty import tariffs, tax cuts and immigration restrictions could stoke inflation. He returns to the White House in a week.

The euro hit its weakest level against the dollar since November 2022 at $1.0177, while sterling was one of the biggest losers, sliding as much as 0.7% to a 14-month low of $1.21.

The pound has been under pressure from concerns over rising borrowing costs and growing unease over Britain’s finances. It tumbled 1.8% last week.

“The overriding view remains that the UK government will probably be forced to announce spending cuts on 26 March,” said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.

“This will feed into a tighter fiscal/looser monetary/weaker sterling narrative.”

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar sank to its weakest since April 2020 at $0.6131. The New Zealand dollar last traded at $0.5544, languishing near a more than two-year low.

BEIJING STEPS IN

The yuan meanwhile bucked the global trend and rose slightly on Monday after Beijing stepped up efforts to defend the weakening currency by relaxing rules to allow more offshore borrowing and sending verbal warnings.

The rose 0.1% to 7.3576 per dollar.

Monday’s moves by the People’s Bank of China follow its suspension on Friday of treasury bond purchases, which briefly lifted yields and spurred speculation it is stepping up defence of the yuan.

“The PBOC is doing whatever it takes to maintain RMB stability,” said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A money exchange vendor holds U.S. dollar banknotes at his shop in Beirut, Lebanon December 21, 2022. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir/File Photo

The Chinese currency has come under renewed pressure in part due to investors’ disappointment over the lack of further stimulus from Beijing to shore up its struggling economy.

Elsewhere, the yen similarly rose 0.2% to 157.37. The yen’s decline was mitigated by news that Bank of Japan policymakers could raise their inflation forecast at a policy meeting this month as a prelude to hiking rates again.

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