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Marketmind: Dollar flexes into Fed week, calm returns

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Marketmind: Dollar flexes into Fed week, calm returns
© Reuters. U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

As markets blew the froth off this year’s extraordinary rally in Big Tech stocks on Thursday, the dollar clocked its best day – and likely its best week – for more than two months.

After the first real edgy day on financial markets in weeks, returning calm on Friday suggests that sudden burst of activity – a stock and bond market recoil and loud dollar pop higher – was more a re-set than a rethink.

Many put the moves down to traders jockeying for position ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting – which may well deliver the last interest rate hike of the cycle. Another unexpectedly tight weekly reading from the U.S. labour market sowed some lingering doubts that we’re on the cusp of ‘peak Fed’ just yet.

Grouch-like disappointment at forecast-beating profits at Tesla (NASDAQ:) and Netflix (NASDAQ:) saw the supercharged FANG-plus index of the 10 leading tech and digital mega cap stocks record its worst day of an otherwise spectacular year so far – losing more than 4% as Netflix and Tesla shares were almost decimated.

And yet, that index remains up 76% for the year to date.

The tech wobble saw the Nasdaq recoil 2% in its biggest drop since March. But the lost a more modest 0.6% and the Dow Jones industrials ploughed on regardless to notch its ninth straight daily gain, aided by upbeat Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:).

What’s more, Nasdaq and S&P500 futures are up again ahead of the bell on Friday. A quieter earnings schedule is topped by American Express (NYSE:) – but nearly all the other banks have been impressive over the past week.

The optimists suggest a combination of ongoing jobs market strength and some rotation of sectoral stock holdings underlines ‘soft landing’ hopes and marks a healthy broadening of what has been a very narrow-led market gain so far this year.

Pessimists think the Fed is not done tightening yet and any further rate hikes after next week will just hasten a downturn in 2024. That has sobered up the Treasury market a touch after a couple of weeks of disinflation relief.

Futures are fully priced for a quarter-point rate rise next week, but indicated less than a 50-50 chance of another hike by November and 75 basis points of cuts from the peak by this time next year. Two-year Treasury yields nudged 12 bps higher to 4.88% on Thursday, but have settled back to 4.85% since.

The backup in yields saw the dollar put in its best showing since early May – helped additionally by growing doubts about the willingness of other major central banks to keep tightening their policy rates once the Fed stops.

The Bank of Japan is leaning toward keeping its yield control policy unchanged at its policy meeting next week, according to Reuters sources, as policymakers prefer to scrutinise more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising.

With inflation having exceeded the BOJ’s target for more than a year, markets had been simmering with speculation the BOJ could tweak yield curve control as early as this month.

Dollar/yen surged above 141 on Friday for the first time in 10 days.

China’s markets remained in a funk, meantime, with anxiety growing over the lack of a major fresh stimulus for the struggling economic recovery as geopolitical tensions bite.

Authorities on Friday announced measures to boost consumption of auto and electronic items as part of a broader drive to shore up the country’s faltering economy.

But all eyes are now on the annual Politburo meeting, which is expected to take place before the end of July and where China’s leaders chart a policy course for the rest of the year.

Events to watch for on Friday:

* U.S. corporate earnings: American Express, Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ:), Schlumberger (NYSE:), Comerica (NYSE:), Regions Financial (NYSE:), Roper Technologies (NYSE:), Interpublic,

* Canada June house prices, May retail sales

* US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks in Hanoi

 

(By Mike Dolan, editing by Angus MacSwan; mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com. Twitter: @reutersMikeD)

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Dollar now priced for perfection – BoA Securities

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Investing.com – The US dollar has rallied strongly since the US Presidential election, from an already high level, and Bank of America Securities sees the currency now priced to perfection.

In real effective terms, BoA estimated that the dollar ended 2024 at a 55-year high, following the longest uptrend in recent decades, which started in mid-2011.

“The USD has also reached extreme levels in nominal terms. Using the BIS NEER broad index (nominal effective exchange rate), the USD is the strongest it has been in the last 30 years, which is when the time series started,” said analysts at BoA Securities, in a note dated Jan. 8.

The dollar appears overvalued by 18.5%, the most in the last 30 years except when it was overvalued by 19% during the energy shocks from the war in Ukraine in 2022, the bank said. 

Its overvaluation increased by about 6.4% since the end of Q3 last year, to a large extent because of the US election. By comparison, it was overvalued only by 9.4% at the end of 2016, after Trump won his first US election.

Looking at G10 equilibrium estimates, the USD clearly stands out as the most overvalued – followed by CHF, with JPY and the Scandies being the most undervalued.

“We expect the USD to remain strong in the short term on the back of US inflationary policies, and particularly tariffs, but to weaken later in the year, as these policies take a toll on the US economy while the rest of the world responds. Policy uncertainty makes our baseline subject to substantial risks,” said BoA Securities.

 

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Dollar boosted by rising Treasury yields; euro slips on weak data

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Investing.com – The US dollar rose Wednesday, benefiting from rising bond yields after the release of healthy US economic data, while weak German industrial orders weighed on the euro.

At 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% higher to 108.690.

Dollar gains as Treasury yields soar

The dollar has continued to push ahead Wednesday, following on from the prior session’s positive tone after data showed US unexpectedly rose in November, layoffs were low, while services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of prices paid for inputs hit a two-year high.

This resulted in 10-year Treasury yields climbing to an eight-month high, while the benchmark 30-year yield came close to the 5% level. 

“Yesterday’s US data releases were hawkish for the Fed, and the implied probability of a March rate cut has now dropped below 40%,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“The most remarkable print was the ISM prices paid subcomponent, which spiked to the highest level since January 2023. If a generally resilient economy was already accounted for when the Fed met in December, a resurgence in inflation concerns could drive an even further hawkish tuning in the policy message.”

The Federal Reserve cut the number of rate cuts it sees this year to two at its December meeting, but traders are now only pricing in around 37 bps of easing through this year, according to LSEG data.

There is more data to digest Wednesday, in the form of the monthly and weekly , ahead of Friday’s release of the closely watched US for further clarity on the health of the world’s largest economy.

German economic weakness weighs on euro

In Europe, fell 0.2% to 1.0326, adding to the losses of around 0.5% overnight after the release of more disappointing economic data from the region’s largest economy – Germany.

fell 5.4% in November, sapped by a decline in large orders, while the country’s fell 0.6%, bursting hopes for a boost from pre-Christmas promotions like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Investors are currently looking for the to ease interest rates by around 100 basis points in the first half of 2025.

“There is only a speech by French central bank governor Villeroy to watch in the eurozone calendar today. EUR/USD may find decent support at 1.0300 for now,” said ING.

traded 0.2% lower to 1.2447, with little in the way of economic data due for release Wednesday, and only a speech from Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods to digest.

The held interest rates unchanged last month, and is expected to proceed cautiously with further rate cuts this year with inflation still above target.

Yuan sentiment remains weak

In Asia, rose 0.1% to 7.3511, with the Chinese currency hitting its weakest level in 17 years earlier in the week.

Sentiment remains weak surrounding China ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, with Trump having vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on China. 

gained 0.1% to 158.19, after recovering marginally from its weakest level in nearly six months.

The yen stemmed its recent losses after government officials offered a verbal warning on potential currency market intervention, which saw traders adopt more caution in shorting the Japanese currency. 

 

 

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Dollar strengthens on elevated US bond yields, tariff talks

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By Tom Westbrook and Greta Rosen Fondahn

SINGAPORE/GDANSK (Reuters) -The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher U.S. bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.

The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.

The was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week.

Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain’s pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.

Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed U.S. services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high – a possible inflation warning.

Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.

“We’re getting very strong U.S. numbers… which has rates going up,” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street (NYSE:), pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.

“There’s even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly.”

Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.

U.S. private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of U.S. rates.

Traders are jittery ahead of key U.S. labour data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second U.S. presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.

The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008. [GB/]

Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.

“With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news – and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the U.S., and Treasuries are selling off – the correlation inverts,” said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.

“That doesn’t happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there’s still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures.”

Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain’s new Labour government late last year.

Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A money exchange vendor holds U.S. dollar banknotes at his shop in Beirut, Lebanon December 21, 2022. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir/File Photo

Japan’s consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank’s view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.

hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.

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