Forex
More weakness ahead for Canadian dollar – Jefferies
Investing.com – The Canadian dollar has suffered against the US dollar in the wake of the US presidential election, and Jefferies sees this weakness as likely to continue for some time.
At 09:00 ET (14:00 GMT), traded 0.2% lower at 1.3992, but the pair is around 1.4% higher over the course of the last month, with the Canadian dollar falling to a four-year low against its US counterpart in the wake of the US election.
“The market has spoken following the outcome of the US election and a weak Canadian dollar is likely here to stay,” said analysts at Jefferies, in a note dated Nov. 19.
Although details of proposed policies are still to be ironed out, the initial read-through implies a less-than-helpful macro backdrop for the Canadian economy–the US is Canada’s largest trading partner–following the victory of Donald Trump at the start of the month.
”Tariffs on imports, lower taxes, and proposed financial regulatory changes all spell relative headwinds, the impact of which is compounded by an already weak Canadian economy (GDP growth persistently below expectations, weak labour market, etc.),” analysts at Jefferies added.
In combination with inflation now within the Bank of Canada’s target range, the US bank expects to see further central bank rate cuts.
The combination of strong rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the expectations that a Trump presidency would be positive for the U.S. economy (and potentially generate inflation, reducing the likelihood of strong rate cuts) has weakened the Canadian dollar.
“Further, it does not look like the situation will reverse itself any time soon. Consequently, we do not see the CAD gaining ground on the USD, and as the Bank of Canada continues to cut rates, we could see additional weakness in the CAD,” Jefferies added.
Forex
British pound slides amidst rising gilt yields and fiscal concerns
Investing.com — The British pound continued its recent decline against the dollar and the euro on Monday, driven by rising investor worries about the fiscal sustainability of Britain as gilt yields increased for the sixth consecutive day.
Sterling depreciated as much as 0.7% against the dollar, reaching $1.2103, its lowest since November 2023. It later settled with a 0.6% drop at $1.2125. In comparison to the euro, the pound was down 0.2% at 84.10 pence.
The pound has become a focus of global currency traders due to the impact of soaring global bond yields, primarily originating from the United States, on British markets. These rising yields stem from concerns about increasing inflation and a reduced likelihood of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Strong U.S. labor market data released on Friday added fuel to the global bond yields, leading money markets to stop fully pricing in any rate cut from the Fed this year. Although higher yields often bolster the currency, analysts in Britain anticipate that the government may need to cut spending or increase taxes to adhere to its fiscal rules, which could potentially affect future growth.
On Monday, Britain’s 10-year gilt yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.879%, slightly below last week’s 2008 high of 4.925%. It had increased by over 24 basis points last week, marking its largest weekly rise in a year. Bond yields and prices have an inverse relationship. The 30-year yield in Britain reached its highest level in 27 years on Monday, hitting 5.472%.
This week, attention is also likely to center on British inflation data set to be released on Wednesday, which could influence the Bank of England’s monetary policy in the near term. Consumer prices are projected to have increased by 2.6% annually in December, matching November’s rate, while core CPI is expected to have eased to 3.4% from 3.5%.
Futures markets are currently pricing in around 16 basis points of easing at the BoE’s February meeting, which suggests approximately a 65% chance of a quarter-point rate cut.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Forex
China boosts support for yuan, increases overseas borrowing limits
Investing.com — In a bid to bolster its weakening currency, China has unveiled plans to store more dollars in Hong Kong and improve capital flows. The measures, announced on Monday, include allowing companies to increase their overseas borrowing.
The yuan has been struggling, hovering near 16-month lows amid a dominant dollar, falling Chinese bond yields, and the looming threat of higher trade barriers as Donald Trump’s U.S. presidency begins next week.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has been taking steps to halt the yuan’s decline since late last year, including issuing warnings against speculative moves and taking measures to support yields. On Monday, authorities reiterated their warnings against speculating against the yuan and increased the limits for offshore borrowings by companies, a move aimed at allowing more foreign exchange to flow into the country.
PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng addressed the Asia Financial Forum in Hong Kong, stating that the central bank plans to considerably increase the proportion of China’s foreign exchange reserves in Hong Kong. However, he did not provide further details. China’s foreign reserves were around $3.2 trillion at the end of December, but little is known about where these reserves are invested.
The currency has lost more than 3% to the dollar since the U.S. election in early November, due to concerns that Trump’s proposed new trade tariffs could put additional pressure on the struggling Chinese economy.
The PBOC has been setting its official midpoint guidance on the stronger side of market projections since mid-November, which analysts interpret as a sign of concern over the yuan’s decline.
The central bank also announced other measures in recent days, including suspending treasury bond purchases and planning to issue large amounts of bills in Hong Kong. These steps aim to prevent yields from falling too much and to control the circulation of yuan offshore.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Forex
Rising dollar pressures peers as further Fed rate cuts questioned
By Samuel Indyk and Rae Wee
LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar rose on Monday, driving its peers to multi-year lows, after Friday’s blowout U.S. jobs report underscored the strength of the economy and muddied the outlook for further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
The , which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of currencies, surged to its highest in more than two years on Monday to peak at 110.17, extending the recent rally.
Friday’s data showed U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, leaving traders heavily scaling back bets of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
Markets were now no longer fully pricing in even one rate cut from the Fed in 2025, down from roughly two quarter-point cuts priced at the start of the year.
With Wednesday’s reading on U.S. inflation up next, any upside surprise could further close the door on future easing. A slew of Fed officials are also due to speak this week.
“If you look back at the last year there were worries and signs that there were cracks in the labour market emerging, but they seem to have been fully plastered, not just papered over,” said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura.
“The U.S. economy is resilient enough to justify a strong dollar and justify relatively higher rates.”
Adding to expectations of a less aggressive easing cycle is the view that President-elect Donald Trump’s plans for hefty import tariffs, tax cuts and immigration restrictions could stoke inflation. He returns to the White House in a week.
The euro hit its weakest level against the dollar since November 2022 at $1.0177, while sterling was one of the biggest losers, sliding as much as 0.7% to a 14-month low of $1.21.
The pound has been under pressure from concerns over rising borrowing costs and growing unease over Britain’s finances. It tumbled 1.8% last week.
“The overriding view remains that the UK government will probably be forced to announce spending cuts on 26 March,” said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.
“This will feed into a tighter fiscal/looser monetary/weaker sterling narrative.”
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar sank to its weakest since April 2020 at $0.6131. The New Zealand dollar last traded at $0.5544, languishing near a more than two-year low.
BEIJING STEPS IN
The yuan meanwhile bucked the global trend and rose slightly on Monday after Beijing stepped up efforts to defend the weakening currency by relaxing rules to allow more offshore borrowing and sending verbal warnings.
The rose 0.1% to 7.3576 per dollar.
Monday’s moves by the People’s Bank of China follow its suspension on Friday of treasury bond purchases, which briefly lifted yields and spurred speculation it is stepping up defence of the yuan.
“The PBOC is doing whatever it takes to maintain RMB stability,” said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC.
The Chinese currency has come under renewed pressure in part due to investors’ disappointment over the lack of further stimulus from Beijing to shore up its struggling economy.
Elsewhere, the yen similarly rose 0.2% to 157.37. The yen’s decline was mitigated by news that Bank of Japan policymakers could raise their inflation forecast at a policy meeting this month as a prelude to hiking rates again.
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