Forex
Sell an October election year seasonal bounce in US dollar: BofA
Investing.com — Bank of America said in a note Friday that investors should consider selling the US dollar during a potential bounce this October, driven by historical seasonal patterns and current technical indicators.
According to BofA, while there may be an initial uptick in the dollar, the broader trend suggests a bearish outlook for the currency.
The analysts point to a bearish triangle pattern in the (DXY), which indicates potential declines to around 98.98 and possibly into the mid-96s.
However, they anticipate a temporary “snapback” rally, similar to previous occurrences in December 2023, July 2023, and February 2023.
This rally, if it materializes, is expected to be corrective and may test former support levels now acting as resistance in the mid-102s.
“Unless the daily chart forms a technical bottom,” BofA notes, “our bias is to sell an October election year seasonal bounce in DXY for YE24 downside.”
The note emphasizes that technical indicators and oscillators support a bearish stance on the dollar, suggesting that any gains in October should be viewed as an opportunity to sell rather than a signal of long-term strength.
The recommendation is based on BofA’s broader view of the FX market, including their technical expectations for various currencies.
In addition, BofA’s broader analysis includes a cautious stance on gold, advising against chasing it due to stretched positioning and momentum, while suggesting potential upside in silver.
For the euro, the outlook remains positive, while the pound is expected to face corrections despite a bullish trend. The and other currency pairs are also positioned for movements that align with BofA’s bearish dollar outlook.
Forex
Sterling squashed by dollar steamroller, traders watch out for Reeves’ speech
LONDON (Reuters) – The pound dropped to its lowest against the dollar since early July on Thursday, brushed aside by the U.S. currency’s relentless rise following Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory.
Those developments are swamping British news for investors, although they will be keeping an eye on finance minister Rachel Reeves’ first Mansion House speech to leaders of the City, as well as remarks from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey.
Reeves said in advance that she wants Britain to build a slew of “megafunds” with up to 80 billion pounds ($102 billion) in fresh investment firepower, under plans for the biggest shake-up in British pensions seen in decades.
Sterling was last down 0.6% on the dollar at 1.2632, its lowest since July 2, falling through its early August low in mid-morning London trading.
The move was largely in line with peers. The euro was down 0.6%, at a one year low, and the dollar was around 0.5% higher on the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. [FRX/]
“Cable (pound/dollar) is a dollar story at the moment,” said Nick Rees, currency analyst at Monex Europe.
Higher trade tariffs and tighter immigration under the incoming Trump administration are projected to fuel inflation, potentially slowing the Federal Reserve’s rate cutting cycle longer term.
These, alongside expectations for deeper deficit spending and higher short term economic growth are lifting Treasury yields, providing the dollar with additional support.
The benchmark hit 4.483% on Thursday, its highest since July. [US/]
The pound was steady on the euro at 83.12 pence to the common currency. It has been gradually strengthening in recent months, “a reflection of European political risk which should be negative for the euro,” said Rees, pointing to the situation in France and Germany.
The collapse of Germany’s ruling coalition last week forced the country into a snap election that will is likely to take place in February, while the French government is trying to push its draft budget for next year over the line, despite lacking a majority in parliament.
Forex
Asia FX fragile; dollar set for stellar week on rate uncertainty, Trump trade
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved little on Friday and were nursing losses for the week, while the dollar steadied at a one-year peak and was set for a strong week as markets dialed back bets on lower U.S. interest rates.
The dollar was headed for a sixth straight week of gains as it extended its rally on Donald Trump’s election victory from last week. Less dovish statements from the Federal Reserve and strong U.S. inflation readings added to the greenback’s strength.
This trend weighed heavily on most Asian units, with middling economic readings from China and Japan adding to the negative sentiment on Friday.
Dollar strong as rate cut bets recede on inflation, Powell comments
The and both rose 0.1% on Friday and were close to a one-year peak hit earlier in the week.
The greenback was up between 1.6% and 2% this week, its best week since end-September.
Gains in the dollar were initially driven by Trump’s election victory, with expansionary policies under his administration expected to drive up inflation in the long term.
In the near-term, sticky and inflation readings spurred doubts over future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, especially as Chair Jerome Powell said resilience in the U.S. economy gave the central bank more time to consider cutting rates.
His comments saw traders sharply dial back expectations for a 25 basis point cut in December.
Japanese yen fragile, USDJPY crosses 156 after weak GDP
The Japanese yen weakened further on Friday, with the pair trading above 156 yen and at its highest level in over three months.
data for the third quarter showed Japanese economic growth slowed sharply from the prior quarter. While remained strong, weakness in other sectors of the economy, especially in exports and investment, weighed on growth.
The also grew less than expected in Q3, indicating that inflation growth slowed during the quarter.
Friday’s data drove up hopes that weakness in the economy will keep the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates further- a scenario that bodes poorly for the yen.
Broader Asian currencies were fragile and headed for weekly losses. The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1% and was set for a seventh straight week of gains.
Chinese missed expectations, while grew more than expected in October on the Golden Week holiday. But overall economic conditions in the country still remained week, with recent stimulus measures largely underwhelming markets.
Focus is now on a potential cut by the People’s Bank next week.
Concerns over China saw the Australian dollar weaken, with the pair hovering around a three-month low.
The Singapore dollar’s pair fell 0.1%, while the South Korean won’s pair fell 0.2%. Both currencies were headed for losses this week.
The Indian rupee’s pair steadied after hitting record highs this week.
Forex
Dollar retains strength against peers on Trump trade
By Chibuike Oguh and Alun John
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar strengthened against major peers on Thursday, trading at a one-year high and headed for a fifth straight session of gains, propelled by market expectations since Donald Trump clinched a dramatic return to the White House.
Markets anticipate that the incoming Trump administration will impose trade tariffs and tighten immigration as well as deepen the deficit, measures deemed to be inflationary.
The president-elect’s Republican Party will control both houses of Congress when he takes office in January, Edison Research projected on Wednesday, giving him wide powers to push his agenda.
The greenback climbed above 156 yen for the first time since July and was last up 0.56% to 156.38 per dollar. The euro slumped to its weakest since November 2023 and was down 0.45% at $1.05165 in choppy trading. Sterling hit its lowest on the dollar in four months and was last down 0.44% to $1.2651.
Following his election, the market has been looking at Trump’s appointment and seeing that he is not going to compromise on his campaign goals, whether it’s tariffs or China, said Steven Englander, head of G10 FX strategy at Standard Chartered (OTC:) in New York. “The market is assuming that he’s going to go ahead and implement all the things that he’s promised to do,” he said.
U.S. producer prices picked up in October, the Labor Department reported on Thursday, a day after data showed that consumer inflation had barely budged last month. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting labor market strength, according to the Labor Department.
The data did not change views that the Federal Reserve would deliver a third interest rate cut next month.
Fed chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday there was no need to rush rate cuts given the strong U.S. economy. His speech echoed earlier comments on Thursday by Federal Reserve governor Adriana Kugler and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin.
The , which measures the currency against six top counterparts including the euro and the yen, rose 0.17% to 106.64, after reaching as high as 107.07, its highest since early November 2023. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 3.7 basis points to 4.414%.
pulled back from a record high of $93,480 overnight and was last up 0.96% to $89,489. Trump has vowed to make the United States “the crypto capital of the planet.” declined 0.27% to $3,144.
The Swiss franc remained under pressure against the dollar, which was up 0.3% to 0.889 franc. The Australian dollar fell to a three-month low after marginally weaker jobs data, weakening to as low as $0.6453.
“The price action that we’ve had is expected given the election outcome and the logic behind it is built on expectations rather than actualities: expectations of fiscal stimulus, tariffs and deregulation,” said Daragh Maher, head of FX strategy, Americas, at HSBC in New York.
“We’ve been in the dollar-bullish camp, so this seats neatly with our narrative, but clearly there’s been a big repricing.”
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