Forex
Strong jobs report propels dollar to best week since 2022
By Karen Brettell
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar jumped to a seven-week high on Friday and was on track to post its best week since September 2022 after a surprisingly strong jobs report for September led traders to cut bets that the Federal Reserve will make further 50-basis-point rate cuts.
The greenback was also set for its best weekly percentage performance against the Japanese yen since 2009 as traders adjusting for a less dovish Fed and a more dovish Bank of Japan sparked a rapid repricing in the currency pair.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month, beating the 140,000 new jobs that economists polled by Reuters had anticipated.
The unemployment rate also unexpectedly slipped, to 4.1% from 4.2% in August.
It is a “blockbuster payrolls report by any measure. I think a no-landing scenario for the U.S. economy has suddenly become far more plausible,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.
“The expectation now would be for a Federal Reserve that treads far more cautiously in easing policy,” Schamotta said.
Improving economic data and more hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday, when he pushed back against expectations of continuing hefty rate cuts, led traders to reduce bets on a 50-basis-point reduction at the Fed’s next meeting, on Nov. 6-7.
Those odds were completely wiped out after Friday’s data. Traders are now pricing in no chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut, down from around 31% earlier on Friday and 53% a week ago, the CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool shows. A 25-basis-point reduction is seen as almost certain, with traders also seeing a small chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged.
Bank of America expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points per meeting through March 2025, followed by reductions of 25 basis points each quarter until the end of 2025, BofA US economist Aditya Bhave said in a report on Friday.
“The data flow since the Fed’s decision to cut by 50bp in September has been remarkably positive,” he said, calling Friday’s report “A-plus.”
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the data “superb” and said more labor market data along those lines would boost his confidence the economy is at full employment with low inflation.
The reached 102.69, the highest level since Aug. 16, and was on track for its best weekly percentage gain since September 2022.
The euro slipped to $1.09515, the lowest since Aug. 15.
The dollar gained to 149.02 yen, the highest since Aug. 16.
New Japanese premier Shigeru Ishiba stunned markets this week when he said the economy was not ready for further rate hikes, an apparent about-face from his previous support for the Bank of Japan’s unwinding decades of extreme monetary stimulus.
The dollar has also been boosted this week by safe-haven demand on concerns about widening conflict in the Middle East.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Friday that Iran and its regional allies will not back down. Iran raised the stakes when it fired missiles at Israel on Tuesday, partly in retaliation for Israel’s killing of Hezbollah secretary general Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
Sterling fell as low as $1.3070, the lowest level since Sept. 12.
Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill said on Friday the British central bank should move only gradually with cutting interest rates, a day after the pound slumped 1% after Governor Andrew Bailey said the BoE could move more aggressively to lower rates.
In cryptocurrencies bitcoin rose 1.95% to $61,958.
Forex
Asia FX fragile with dollar upbeat ahead of PCE data; yen hits 5-mth low
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies weakened on Friday with the Japanese yen recovering marginally from a five-month low as strong inflation data only partially offset a dovish outlook for the Bank of Japan.
Regional currencies were pressured by a broad push into the dollar, which hit an over one-year high after the Federal Reserve flagged a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. The greenback remained well-bid even as markets positioned for a potential U.S. government shutdown.
The and rose marginally in Asian trade, and were at their strongest levels since November 2023. Focus is now on key data due later on Friday for more cues on interest rates.
The Chinese yuan weakened to a more-than one-year low after Beijing left a key lending rate unchanged.
Yen rises from 5-mth low on strong CPI; BOJ outlook dovish
The Japanese yen was among the better performers on Friday, with the pair falling 0.2% as inflation data for November read slightly stronger than expected.
But the yen was nursing a tumble to its weakest level in five months on Thursday, with USDJPY having surged to 157.93 yen- its highest level since late-July.
While strong CPI data did further the case for an eventual rate hike by the Bank of Japan, comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday suggested that a hike will come later rather than sooner in 2025.
The central bank and signaled that inflation will continue to rise. But Ueda’s comments on watching springtime labor wage negotiations suggested that a hike may not come until at least March.
Recent weakness in the yen also spurred renewed speculation over government intervention, after ministers made a verbal warning on yen weakness.
Chinese yuan at 1-yr low; PBOC leaves loan prime rate unchanged
The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.2%, hitting its highest level since November 2023.
The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark unchanged on Friday, as widely expected, with the central bank seen having limited headroom to cut rates further amid sustained yuan weakness.
Looser monetary policy has also provided limited support to the Chinese economy over the past year, with Beijing expected to ramp up fiscal spending in the coming year to boost growth.
Broader Asian currencies mostly weakened on Friday, and were nursing steep declines this week as traders remained biased towards the dollar. The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% and remained at a two-year low, while the South Korean won’s pair rose 0.4% and was close to its highest point in nearly 15 years.
The Singapore dollar’s pair was flat, while the Indian rupee’s pair steadied after hitting a record high above 85 rupees earlier this week.
Forex
Dollar strengthens as market digests Fed’s hawkish cut
By Chibuike Oguh, Harry Robertson and Rae Wee
NEW YORK/LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The dollar hovered near its two-year high on Thursday after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and signaled a much slower monetary policy easing trajectory in 2025, while the yen weakened against the greenback after the Bank of Japan held rates steady.
The dollar edged higher from losses early in the session after a stronger-than-expected reading on U.S. third quarter GDP showed the economy grew at a 3.3% annual rate.
The number validated the Federal Reserve’s cautious new take-it-slow approach to easing, as did a bigger-than-expected fall in the number of applications for unemployment insurance to 220,000 last week.
Currencies around the world tumbled on Wednesday after the Fed decision sent yields higher and boosted the dollar, although many rebounded on Thursday in choppy trading conditions with thin volumes ahead of the holiday period.
The , which measures the greenback against six rival currencies, reached as high as 108.480 on the session, topping the 108.180 it reached in the prior session, which is its highest level since November 2022. It was last up 0.08% to 108.360.
The week has been chock-a-block with the last central bank policy meetings of 2024. The BOJ kept interest rates steady as expected, but the yen fell sharply as Governor Kazuo Ueda gave little away in a post-meeting press conference.
The dollar rose 1.63% against the yen to 157.55, trading at its highest levels since July.
“The main focus has been on the central bank decisions, which were very dollar supportive overall. The Fed had a hawkish cut and the Bank of Japan delivered a dovish hold, and those were probably the main two drivers,” said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS in New York.
Investors had been looking out for hints of imminent BOJ tightening, particularly after the Fed struck a hawkish tone at its meeting a day earlier.
But the governor reiterated that policymakers would need more time to assess incoming economic data and the implications of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies.
The fallout from the Fed continued to ripple across financial markets after traders heavily dialed back on easing expectations next year.
The euro, which tumbled 1.34% on Wednesday, managed to claw back some losses and was last 0.16% higher at $1.036650.
“Since the election interest rate expectations in the U.S. have gone up, but outside the U.S. they’ve gone down whether you look at ECB or you know most other central banks,” said Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard (NYSE:) in New York.
“And that leads to dollar strengthening as those interest rate differentials widen in favor of the U.S. So I think you should expect more dollar strengthening because I don’t believe the interest rate markets or the currency markets have fully priced in the implications of tariffs.”
The Bank of England held interest rates at 4.75% as expected on Thursday. Sterling dipped, weakening 0.58% to $1.25.
The Canadian dollar sank to its lowest in more than four years at 1.44 per U.S. dollar. The South Korean won tumbled to its weakest level in 15 years.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said more reductions in borrowing costs now hinge on further progress in lowering stubbornly high inflation, sending global stocks plunging and bond yields spiking. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 7.2 basis points to 4.57%.
The Swedish and Norwegian crowns both rebounded against the dollar on Thursday, after Sweden’s Riksbank cut rates but Norway’s Norges Bank held them steady.
The Swedish crown strengthened 1% versus the dollar to 11.026, while the Norwegian krone pared earlier gains and was down 0.58% to 11.45.
The dropped to a two-year low before also ticking up. Data on Thursday showed that New Zealand’s economy sank into a recession in the third quarter. The currency was last up 0.16% versus the greenback to $0.5632.
Australia’s dollar bottomed at $0.6199, a two-year low, but was last up around 0.37%.
Currency bid prices at 19 December 09:21 p.m. GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Previous Session Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Dollar index 108.4 108.26 0.13% 6.93% 108.48 107.81
Euro/Dollar 1.0362 1.0351 0.1% -6.12% $1.0422 $1.0348
Dollar/Yen 157.34 154.75 1.67% 11.55% 157.77 154.5
Euro/Yen 163.04 160.26 1.73% 4.76% 163.8 159.87
Dollar/Swiss 0.8984 0.901 -0.32% 6.72% 0.9022 0.895
Sterling/Dollar 1.2496 1.2574 -0.6% -1.79% $1.2665 $1.2497
Dollar/Canadian 1.4389 1.4449 -0.4% 8.55% 1.4466 1.4346
Aussie/Dollar 0.6238 0.6218 0.33% -8.49% $0.6265 $0.6199
Euro/Swiss 0.9308 0.9328 -0.21% 0.24% 0.9355 0.9307
Euro/Sterling 0.8289 0.823 0.72% -4.36% 0.8293 0.8223
NZ Dollar/Dollar 0.563 0.5624 0.18% -10.84% $0.5662 0.5608
Dollar/Norway 11.448 11.3836 0.56% 12.95% 11.4594 11.2839
Euro/Norway 11.8616 11.7879 0.63% 5.68% 11.877 11.754
Dollar/Sweden 11.0294 11.1267 -0.87% 9.56% 11.1366 10.9966
Euro/Sweden 11.4289 11.5226 -0.81% 2.73% 11.5355 11.4276
Forex
Dollar set for weekly gains ahead of key inflation release
Investing.com – The US dollar slipped slightly Friday, pausing for breath after strong gains this week as traders await the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
At 04:40 ET (09:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 107.960, after earlier this week climbing to a two-year high.
Dollar on course for weekly gains
The has slipped slightly Friday, but is still on course of weekly gains of around 1%, bolstered by a relatively hawkish US rate outlook after the last Federal Reserve policy meeting of the year earlier this week.
The US central bank policymakers now only sees an additional 50 basis points of easing in 2025, a likely two cuts of 25 basis points, instead of the four reductions indicated in the previous forecasts in September.
The November is expected to rise 2.9% on an annual basis, up from 2.8% the prior month, while the monthly figure is seen climbing 0.2%, a slip from 0.3% in October.
A stronger-than-expected rise in the core PCE index could have an outsized impact on markets, as the hawkish nature of the Fed’s comments has shifted the likelihood towards fewer or potentially no further reductions next year.
“Market pricing moved hawkishly and towards our view of just one further 25 bps cut outlined in our team’s 2025 outlook,” analysts from Macquarie said in a note.
Sterling near one-month low after weak retail sales
In Europe, traded largely flat at 1.2500, after falling on Thursday to a one-month low after Bank of England policymakers voted 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, a bigger split than expected, amid worries over a slowing economy.
Data released earlier Friday showed that British rose by a weaker-than-expected 0.2% in November, below the expected jump of 0.5%.
rose 0.2% higher to 1.0385, just off a one-month low, and still on track for a weekly drop of over 1% on the back of the dollar’s strength.
rose unexpectedly in November, increasing by 0.1% on the year, instead of the 0.3% decline predicted, while the business climate index in Germany’s retail sector fell slightly, the Ifo Institute said on Friday.
This year was very challenging for the retail sector and the overall economic environment is likely to remain difficult in 2025, “even though many retailers are hoping for an improvement in consumer sentiment,” said Ifo expert Patrick Hoeppner.
The lowered its key rate last week for the fourth time this year, and is likely to cut interest rates further in 2025 if inflation worries fade.
Yen helped by CPI data
In Asia, fell 0.4% to 156.74, as for November read slightly stronger than expected, strengthening the case for an eventual rate hike by the .
But the yen was nursing a tumble to its weakest level in five months on Thursday, after comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested that a hike will come later rather than sooner in 2025.
edged 0.1% higher to 7.3050, hitting its highest level since November 2023.
The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark unchanged on Friday, as widely expected, with the central bank seen having limited headroom to cut rates further amid sustained yuan weakness.
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