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‘The boom is over’: Venezuelans lament end of brief dollarization boost

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'The boom is over': Venezuelans lament end of brief dollarization boost
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A worker receives a dollar cash payment in a store in a market in Caracas, Venezuela, August 12, 2021. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo

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By Mayela Armas

CARACAS (Reuters) – When Venezuela’s economy was showing tentative signs of recovery in 2020, Enrique Perrella thought it was time to open a cafe in eastern Caracas serving coffee, desserts and breakfasts.

But by January of this year, faced with rising rent, increased taxes and financing constraints, he closed it down.

“The boom is over,” said Perrella. “There is no protection for investment.”

After a brief recovery on the back of de-facto dollarization, Venezuela’s economy is once again falling victim to high inflation, lagging salaries, and decreases in purchases and production of goods, say business owners and analysts.

The government of Nicolas Maduro relaxed currency controls in 2019, allowing more transactions in dollars despite U.S. sanctions. The move led to a slight recovery in 2021 and 2022 after eight years of economic collapse and the migration of some 7.3 million Venezuelans.

Maduro hailed economic growth of 15% last year and said in August that expansion was continuing.

But merchants and analysts said the dollarization boost has proven insufficient in the face of limited credit, a depreciating local currency, higher taxes, straitened public spending amid lower oil income, and rising utility bills.

Economic activity decreased 7% in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period the year before, according to the non-governmental Venezuelan Finance Observatory, while inflation reached 398% year-on-year in July, according to the central bank.

Last month, Yaner Fung shuttered the small supermarket he had owned in western Barquisimeto for 15 years.

“I had to close because in the last two months sales were falling due to less purchasing power … and more than anything because of increases in taxes and utilities,” he said.

Fung now works for a similar business.

“I went from owner to employee.”

‘NO BUYING CAPACITY’

Other businesses which have survived said they were slashing prices, salaries and profit margins to stay afloat.

“To keep up operations we had to cut salaries and work fewer days a week,” said the owner of a small food factory in the industrial central city of Valencia who asked not to be identified. “There is no buying capacity.”

Industrial production was down 7.6% in the first half of the year, compared with the same period in 2022, according to manufacturing guild Conindustria. Commercial sales were down 9% in the same period, local analyst firm Ecoanalitica said.

The central bank, which has not released gross domestic product figures since 2019, did not respond to requests for comment.

“In the first half of 2022 we saw growth facilitated by a decrease in controls and greater use of the dollar, but then that decelerated,” said Jesus Palacios of Ecoanalitica. “Structural economic problems like scarce credit, an absence of recovery in public utilities, among others, were not resolved.”

Retailers in capital Caracas are offering discounts to drum up custom, but merchants said many people still cannot afford to shop because of low salaries.

“Years ago I felt like a millionaire, today my salary isn’t enough,” said Migdalia Uviedo, 58, a retired teacher who now works as a tutor and seamstress. “To survive I look for cheaper food.”

Uviedo’s pension is equivalent to $9 a month. With her other work, she makes a total of about $20.

A dozen eggs costs about $4, while a kilo of chicken goes for $3 and a liter of milk $1.80.

Over half of Venezuelans earn less than $100 a month, says Ecoanalitica, and even those families who receive some income in dollars can struggle to afford food and medicine.

Restaurants, cafes and bakeries like Perrella’s blossomed with dollarization. But 25 have closed in Caracas already this year, said Ivan Puerta, head of the Chamber of Restaurants.

Those remaining have been discounting heavily to lure customers, with lunches which cost $20 at the start of 2023 now going for $10. But sales are down, restaurateurs said, while input costs have quadrupled in the last year.

“We have to keep reinventing,” said Giulio Gallucci, a partner in a Mexican restaurant.

Forex

Dollar now priced for perfection – BoA Securities

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Investing.com – The US dollar has rallied strongly since the US Presidential election, from an already high level, and Bank of America Securities sees the currency now priced to perfection.

In real effective terms, BoA estimated that the dollar ended 2024 at a 55-year high, following the longest uptrend in recent decades, which started in mid-2011.

“The USD has also reached extreme levels in nominal terms. Using the BIS NEER broad index (nominal effective exchange rate), the USD is the strongest it has been in the last 30 years, which is when the time series started,” said analysts at BoA Securities, in a note dated Jan. 8.

The dollar appears overvalued by 18.5%, the most in the last 30 years except when it was overvalued by 19% during the energy shocks from the war in Ukraine in 2022, the bank said. 

Its overvaluation increased by about 6.4% since the end of Q3 last year, to a large extent because of the US election. By comparison, it was overvalued only by 9.4% at the end of 2016, after Trump won his first US election.

Looking at G10 equilibrium estimates, the USD clearly stands out as the most overvalued – followed by CHF, with JPY and the Scandies being the most undervalued.

“We expect the USD to remain strong in the short term on the back of US inflationary policies, and particularly tariffs, but to weaken later in the year, as these policies take a toll on the US economy while the rest of the world responds. Policy uncertainty makes our baseline subject to substantial risks,” said BoA Securities.

 

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Dollar boosted by rising Treasury yields; euro slips on weak data

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Investing.com – The US dollar rose Wednesday, benefiting from rising bond yields after the release of healthy US economic data, while weak German industrial orders weighed on the euro.

At 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% higher to 108.690.

Dollar gains as Treasury yields soar

The dollar has continued to push ahead Wednesday, following on from the prior session’s positive tone after data showed US unexpectedly rose in November, layoffs were low, while services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of prices paid for inputs hit a two-year high.

This resulted in 10-year Treasury yields climbing to an eight-month high, while the benchmark 30-year yield came close to the 5% level. 

“Yesterday’s US data releases were hawkish for the Fed, and the implied probability of a March rate cut has now dropped below 40%,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“The most remarkable print was the ISM prices paid subcomponent, which spiked to the highest level since January 2023. If a generally resilient economy was already accounted for when the Fed met in December, a resurgence in inflation concerns could drive an even further hawkish tuning in the policy message.”

The Federal Reserve cut the number of rate cuts it sees this year to two at its December meeting, but traders are now only pricing in around 37 bps of easing through this year, according to LSEG data.

There is more data to digest Wednesday, in the form of the monthly and weekly , ahead of Friday’s release of the closely watched US for further clarity on the health of the world’s largest economy.

German economic weakness weighs on euro

In Europe, fell 0.2% to 1.0326, adding to the losses of around 0.5% overnight after the release of more disappointing economic data from the region’s largest economy – Germany.

fell 5.4% in November, sapped by a decline in large orders, while the country’s fell 0.6%, bursting hopes for a boost from pre-Christmas promotions like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Investors are currently looking for the to ease interest rates by around 100 basis points in the first half of 2025.

“There is only a speech by French central bank governor Villeroy to watch in the eurozone calendar today. EUR/USD may find decent support at 1.0300 for now,” said ING.

traded 0.2% lower to 1.2447, with little in the way of economic data due for release Wednesday, and only a speech from Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods to digest.

The held interest rates unchanged last month, and is expected to proceed cautiously with further rate cuts this year with inflation still above target.

Yuan sentiment remains weak

In Asia, rose 0.1% to 7.3511, with the Chinese currency hitting its weakest level in 17 years earlier in the week.

Sentiment remains weak surrounding China ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, with Trump having vowed to impose steep trade tariffs on China. 

gained 0.1% to 158.19, after recovering marginally from its weakest level in nearly six months.

The yen stemmed its recent losses after government officials offered a verbal warning on potential currency market intervention, which saw traders adopt more caution in shorting the Japanese currency. 

 

 

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Dollar strengthens on elevated US bond yields, tariff talks

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By Tom Westbrook and Greta Rosen Fondahn

SINGAPORE/GDANSK (Reuters) -The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher U.S. bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.

The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.

The was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week.

Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain’s pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.

Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed U.S. services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high – a possible inflation warning.

Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.

“We’re getting very strong U.S. numbers… which has rates going up,” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street (NYSE:), pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.

“There’s even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly.”

Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.

U.S. private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of U.S. rates.

Traders are jittery ahead of key U.S. labour data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second U.S. presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.

The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008. [GB/]

Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.

“With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news – and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the U.S., and Treasuries are selling off – the correlation inverts,” said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.

“That doesn’t happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there’s still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures.”

Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain’s new Labour government late last year.

Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A money exchange vendor holds U.S. dollar banknotes at his shop in Beirut, Lebanon December 21, 2022. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir/File Photo

Japan’s consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank’s view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.

hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.

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