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The US market today maintains growth. Inflation Ahead

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us market today

The main U.S. index closed the week near the highs of recent months, the highest prices since early May. The US market today has rallied for four straight weeks as the S&P500-index closed above its 50- and 100-day averages.

At the end of last week, the July jobs report came out: more than +500K new jobs — almost double the estimate. The unemployment rate of 3.6% is a long-term low. Technically, the U.S. is in a recession — GDP decline in Q1 and Q2, but employment remains strong, although there are reports that the labor market has begun to cool noticeably.

Energy. Oil is up for the week opening, +1%, but oil is below $100; Brent is $95. Oil is under pressure on expectations of slowing demand in China and the U.S.

Europe faces a difficult winter in the economy and a difficult 2023 — said the president of Finland. The reasons are the sharp rise in energy prices and the difficulty in quickly restructuring the energy sector, especially in gas suppliers.

Grain crisis — signs of improvement, several grain carriers left the port of Odessa over the weekend.

U.S.-China trade increased in 7 months, +11.8%, to $452 bln.

The Palestinian-Israeli crisis appears to have been resolved by the beginning of the week — after intense mutual shelling, the sides stopped shelling under an agreement brokered by Egypt. Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system is doing very well — it has shot down as many as 97% of the missiles the Palestinians have launched at Israel.

Warren Buffett’s Bershire Hathaway posted a very large loss, of $43 billion for Q2, compared to a profit a year earlier. The reason was the stock’s decline in Q2. Nevertheless, the company is in good shape and has significant assets in the money.

Tesla reported the release of its 3 millionth car.

The EU adopted by a majority a plan in case of an emergency gas supply shortfall — limiting gas demand. Hungary and Poland opposed it, but the decision was passed by a qualified majority.

The U.S. market remains up despite expectations of a +0.5% Fed rate hike in September, despite a slowing economy. The US market is buyable — but we have to wait for a strong pullback down to the 50-day average.



Forex

The dollar is down again against major world currencies

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the dollar is down again

The dollar is down again against the euro, the pound, and the yen, according to trading data.

The euro rose to $0.9913 from the previous close of $0.9882, the pound to dollar rose to $1.1357 from $1.1326;, and the dollar to yen fell to 144.56 yen from 144.63 yen. The dollar index (the exchange rate against a basket of currencies from six U.S. trading partners) was up 0.77 percent, to 110.92 points.

Why is the value of the dollar going down?

Investors will look forward to macrostatistical data on the U.S. labor market on Thursday and Friday. Later in trading will be the nation’s initial jobless claims for the week through October 1. Experts predict the index will increase by 10 thousand up to 203 thousand compared to the previous week.

Friday will release important statistics on unemployment in the USA. Analysts believe the rate in September remained at the August level of 3.7%, while the number of those employed in non-farm industries increased by 250,000.

Unemployment data is an important indicator for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in making rate decisions. The regulator has repeatedly stated its willingness to fight high inflation, since the beginning of the year, the key rate has been raised five times; in November, the markets expect another increase. According to the CME Group, 66% of analysts are predicting another 75 basis point increase to 3.75-4%, while the remaining 34% are predicting a 50 basis point increase.

Earlier we talked about Copper and Zinc rising in price after new LME restrictions; and Aluminum exceeding $2,400 a ton.

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Base metals prices today rising after new LME restrictions, aluminum exceeds $2,400 a ton

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base metals prices today

Base metals prices are rising today. Copper and zinc prices rose sharply after the London Metal Exchange announced on Thursday new restrictions on shipments from UMMC facilities. Aluminum prices have climbed by 2.5% to above $2,400 per ton for the first time since August 30, according to market data.

Base metals market

December futures on copper on the Comex exchange rose 0.95% to $3.5767 a pound (about 0.45 kilograms) at 10.20 am, while the maximum price was $3.5922. Zinc futures rose 3.7% to $3,156.5 per ton, compared with a daily high of $3,192.5.

Aluminum futures were up 1.68% to $2,391.5 per ton by this time and were already up to $2,419. Aluminum has been rising in price since late last week after reports surfaced that the LME is considering possible bans on new shipments of Russian metal to its warehouses.

At the end of Wednesday’s trading on the LME, the price per ton of copper with delivery in three months was down 0.5% to $7,679.5. Aluminum was up 0.17% to $2,352 and zinc was down 0.1% to $3,044.

Earlier we talked about gold prices surpassing $1,700 an ounce.

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Current gold prices combined above $1,700 an ounce

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current gold prices

Current gold prices rose on Tuesday morning; the price was above $1,700 dollars per troy ounce, according to trading data.

The price of December gold futures on the New York Comex Exchange rose by $6.85, or 0.4%, to $1,708.85 per troy ounce. December silver futures rose 1.53% to $20,905 per ounce.

Daily gold prices were supported by a decline in yields on U.S. government bonds. Thus, the yield on ten-year government bonds (U.S. Treasuries) fell to 3.615% from the previous close of 3.651%, while at the beginning of Monday’s trading the indicator exceeded 3.8%.

U.S. Treasuries are an alternative investment to gold, which is why their quotes tend to move in different directions. As a result, gold gained 2.3% on Monday, from $1,670 to $1,710.

Earlier, we reported that oil rises in anticipation of possible OPEC+ production cuts.

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