Forex

U.S. dollar’s struggles continue as markets brace for post-Thanksgiving buzz

Published

1 year ago

November 27, 2023

U.S. dollar's struggles continue as markets brace for post-Thanksgiving buzz

By Samuel Indyk and Rae Wee

LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar began the last week of November on the back foot and was on track for its biggest monthly drop in a year as traders eyed fresh economic cues in the week ahead to determine the future path of policy rates.

A postponed OPEC+ meeting, the release of the Federal Reserve’s tracked measure of inflation alongside consumer prices data in the euro zone and Australia fill this week’s calendar, which will also see a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Chinese PMI data.

The , which measures the currency against six major peers, slipped as much as 0.2% to 103.21 and was headed for a monthly loss of more than 3%, its worst performance in a year.

“Expectations are that U.S. rates have peaked which suggests it’s time to get out of the dollar,” said Colin Asher, senior economist at Mizuho Bank.

“U.S. equities have now completed four weeks in a row of gains and that’s also weighing on safe-haven demand for the dollar,” Asher said.

Traders, returning from the Thanksgiving lull late last week, continued to eye a peak in U.S. rates and turned their attention to when the first rate cuts could come, with this week’s release of U.S. core PCE prices likely to offer more clues on the Fed’s next steps.

“Insofar as CPI inflation rates across much of the G10 are still above central bank targets, there is a strong incentive for policymakers to support the ‘higher for longer’ theme since higher market rates will help in the battle against inflation,” said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.

“Investors, however, are looking through this policy and appear increasingly pre-occupied about betting on the timing and pace of rate cuts next year.”

Market pricing shows a roughly 25% chance that the Fed may begin easing monetary policy as early as March, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Elsewhere, the British pound rose against the weaker dollar to a more than two-month high of $1.2644, extending its gains from last week following data showing that British companies unexpectedly reported a marginal return to growth in November after three months of contraction.

“The most recent PMI data were good in the UK, implying that things are not as quite bleak as they seemed,” Mizuho’s Asher said.

The pound was up over 3.9% for the month, on track for its largest monthly gain since a more than 5% rise in November last year.

The dollar fell 0.4% to 148.885 yen, while the euro gained 0.2% to $1.0954.

The Australian dollar climbed to a more than three-month high of $0.6608, while the edged 0.3% higher to $0.6098 before the RBNZ interest rate decision on Wednesday, where the central bank is seen keeping rates unchanged at 5.5%, as they have been since the last adjustment in May.

In China, the yuan slipped after the official midpoint snapped five straight sessions of strengthening, with the last at 7.1523 per dollar.

Its offshore counterpart fell 0.1% to 7.1582 per dollar.

Prior to market opening, the People’s Bank of China set the midpoint rate, around which the yuan is allowed to trade in a 2% band, at 7.1159 per dollar, 8 pips weaker than the previous fix of 7.1151.

Forex

Dollar retains strength; euro near two-year low

Published

26 mins ago

December 26, 2024

Investing.com – The US dollar rose in thin holiday-impacted trade Tuesday, retaining recent strength as traders prepared for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.

At 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 107.905, near the recently hit two-year high.

Dollar remains in demand

The dollar has been in demand since the Federal Reserve outlined a hawkish outlook for its interest rates after its last policy meeting of the year last week, projecting just two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025.

In fact, markets are now pricing in just about 35 basis points of easing for 2025, which has in turn sent US Treasury yields surging, boosting the dollar.

The two-year Treasury yield last stood at 4.34%, while the benchmark 10-year yield steadied near a seven-month high at 4.59%.

“We think this hawkish re-tuning of the Fed’s communication will lay the foundation for sustained dollar strengthening into the new year,” said analysts at ING,in a note.

Trading volumes are likely to thin out as the year-end approaches, with this trading week shortened by the festive period.

Euro near to two-year low

In Europe, fell 0.1% to 1.0396, near a two-year low, with the set to cut interest rates more rapidly than its US rival as the eurozone struggles to record any growth.

The ECB lowered its key rate earlier this month for the fourth time this year, and President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that the eurozone was getting “very close” to reaching the central bank’s medium-term inflation goal.

“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further,” Lagarde said in a speech in Vilnius.

Inflation in the eurozone was 2.3% last month and the ECB expects it to settle at its 2% target next year.

traded largely flat at 1.2531, with sterling showing signs of weakness after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter, and with Bank of England policymakers voting 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold last week, a more dovish split than expected.

Bank of Japan stance in focus

In Asia, fell 0.1% to 157.03, after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.

edged 0.1% higher to 7.3021, remaining close to a one-year high as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.

Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.

Forex

Asia FX muted, dollar recovers as markets look to slower rate cuts

Published

26 mins ago

December 26, 2024

Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a tight range on Tuesday, while the dollar extended overnight gains as traders positioned for a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the coming year.

Trading volumes were muted before the Christmas break, while most regional currencies were nursing steep losses against the greenback for the year.

Asian currencies weakened sharply last week after the Federal Reserve effectively halved its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, citing concerns over sticky U.S. inflation.

Dollar near 2-year high on hawkish rate outlook

The and both rose about 0.1% in Asian trade, extending overnight gains and coming back in sight of a two-year high hit last week.

While the greenback did see some weakness after data read lower than expected for November, this was largely offset by traders dialing back expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025.

The Fed signaled only two rate cuts in the coming year, less than prior forecasts of four.

Higher U.S. rates diminish the appeal of risk-driven Asian markets, limiting the amount of capital flowing into the region and pressuring regional markets.

Asia FX pressured by sticky US rate outlook

Most Asian currencies weakened in recent sessions on the prospect of slower rate cuts in the U.S., while uncertainty over local monetary policy and slowing economic growth also weighed.

The Japanese yen’s pair fell 0.1% on Tuesday after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the Bank of Japan signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.

The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% after the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s December meeting showed policymakers saw an eventual easing in monetary policy, citing some progress in bringing down inflation. But they still flagged potential upside risks for inflation.

The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1% and remained close to a one-year high, as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.

Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.

The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1%, while the Indian rupee’s pair rose 0.1% after hitting record highs above 85 rupees.

Forex

Dollar breaks free, poised for more gains amid US economic outperformance

Published

26 mins ago

December 26, 2024

Investing.com — The dollar has surged past its post-2022 range, buoyed by U.S. economic exceptionalism, a widening interest rate gap, and elevated tariffs, setting the stage for further gains next year.

“Our base case is that the dollar will make some further headway next year as the US continues to outperform, the interest rate gap between the US and other G10 economies widens a little further, and the Trump administration brings in higher US tariffs,” Capital Economics said in a recent note.

The bullish outlook on the greenback comes in the wake of the dollar breaking above its post-2022 trading range, reflecting renewed confidence among investors driven by robust U.S. economic data and policy expectations.

A key risk to the upside call on the dollar is a potential economic rebound in the rest of the world, similar to what occurred in 2016, Capital Economics noted.

Following the 2016 U.S. election, economic activity in the rest of the world rebounded, while Trump’s tax cuts didn’t materialize until the end of 2017, and the Fed took a more dovish path than discounted, resulting in a 10% drop in the DXY on the year, which was its “worst calendar year performance in the past two decades,” it added.

While expectations for a recovery in Europe and Asia seem far off, a positive surprise for global growth “should be ruled out”, Capital Economics said.