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U.S. stock indices data: up 1-1.2%



u.s. stock market indices

The U.S. stock market ended the trading on the positive side. The major U.S. stock indexes are highly correlated. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed at their highest levels in nearly seven weeks. Traders evaluated a new batch of corporate reports and fresh U.S. stock indices data.

U.S. stock indices are changing daily. The U.S. economy shrank 0.9 percent year on year in the second quarter, preliminary data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed. Analysts polled by Trading Economics had expected growth of 0.5%; the Bloomberg consensus forecast was for a rise of 0.4%.

Investors think the data on U.S. stock market indices may force the Federal Reserve to stop the cycle of aggressive tightening of rates soon.

At the end of this week’s meeting, the Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, to 2.25-2.5%, and confirmed that it expects further tightening of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell by 5,000 last week to 256,000, according to a report from the U.S. Labor Department. According to revised data, a week earlier, the index was 261 thousand, not 251 thousand, as it was informed earlier. Experts interviewed by Bloomberg agency, on average, expected to reduce the number of applications to 250 thousand.

Current U.S. stock exchange index

The value of Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.03% to 32529.63 points by closing of trading.

Standard & Poor’s 500 rose by 1.21 per cent to 4,072.43 points.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.08% to 12162.59 points.

Hershey Co. rose 2.8%. The U.S. chocolate maker reported net income rose 5 percent in its fiscal second quarter and improved its full-year guidance.

The market value of Etsy Inc. jumped 9.9%. The online trading platform operator reported better-than-forecast earnings in the second quarter, with revenues matching analysts’ forecasts.

Ford Motor Co. shares were up 6.1%. The U.S. automaker posted a 19% increase in net income in the second quarter of 2022, and adjusted earnings and revenue were better than market expectations. The company reaffirmed its outlook for the year.

Shares of Harley-Davidson Inc. are up 7.8%. The largest U.S. motorcycle maker boosted net income and lowered revenue in the second quarter of 2022, with results significantly better than analysts’ expectations.

Shares of Qualcomm Inc. fell 4.5%. One of the world’s largest semiconductor makers increased net profit 1.8 times in the third quarter of fiscal 2022, but gave a weak outlook amid falling consumer demand due to high inflation.

Comcast Corp. ‘s stock price was down 9.1%, though the largest U.S. Internet and cable TV provider posted adjusted earnings and revenue better than market forecasts for the second quarter of fiscal 2022.

Meta Platforms shares were down 5.2%. The company recorded a decline in revenue in the second quarter amid a decline in advertising revenue.

Altria Group’s stock declined by 0.2%. One of the largest tobacco companies in the world cut net income 2.4 times in the second quarter of 2022, while revenues fell by 5.7%.

Pfizer Inc. shares lost 1.6%, although the company reported better than market forecasts adjusted profit and revenue in the second quarter of 2022 due to increased sales of drugs to fight COVID-19.

JetBlue Airways Corp. ‘s stock price was down 0.4%. The U.S. airline entered into an agreement to buy Spirit Airlines (SPB: SAVE) Inc. for $3.8 billion. Spirit Airlines shares rose 5.6%.


Positive news from the U.S. labor market has raised fears of further FED rate hikes this year



fed rate hikes this year

FED rate hikes and inflation this year are at record highs. The U.S. jobs data released on Friday were truly unexpected by market participants, which had andwill still have consequences.

According to the July report on new jobs and total unemployment, the U.S. economy gained 528,000 jobs against a forecast of 250,000, and more importantly, the June numbers were also revised upward to 398,000. 

The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6%, which was also a surprise since it had been expected to remain at 3.6%. Another positive piece of news was the average hourly earnings up 0.5% month-over-month and 5.2% year-over-year. Also, upward revisions were made to this indicator for the previous period under review.

Why did the overall previously positive sentiment in the markets change so drastically? It is connected with the fact that earlier the data showing the slowdown of the number of new jobs in the USA might have become the reason for the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause in raising interest rates in August, and in September to continue the cycle with a noticeably lower growth rate, for example at 0.25% per month. 

Here the main reason for such a scenario was the situation in the labor market. The Fed has an opportunity to continue the sharp FED rate hikes this year, not just to limit the growth of inflation, but to make it go backwards.

Such a change in sentiment could put pressure on demand for stocks of companies, which always have trouble growing if the Central Bank conducts aggressive interest rate hikes. But in this case, the dollar would be supported.

There is also a possibility that the Fed may not change its plans to relieve pressure by raising rates, assessing the current situation in the economy as positive and the inflation rate as the maximum, which may stop and go in the opposite direction in the near foreseeable future, and without continuing aggressive rate increases.

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The strength of the U.S. dollar delayed the recession announcement



recession announcement

The jobs report was released at the end of last week’s work week. Economists were confident that 258,000 jobs were added during the previous month. But the Labor Department released data showing that more than 500,000 new jobs were added in the U.S. This shows that the economy continues to grow. 

The extremely strong numbers from Friday’s report reduce concerns that the United States will make an announcement. While this optimistic report bodes well for economic growth, it is certainly not about inflation.

At the same time, it dramatically alters the expectations of market participants, who have been focusing their attention on recent GDP reports. At the end of July, the second-quarter GDP estimate was presented. According to the report, GDP volume declined by 0.9%. Prior to that, the BEA had published data showing that GDP volumes declined by 1.6 percent during the first quarter. It is worth remembering that if a country’s economy contracted for two consecutive quarters, that is the classic definition of a recession.

Fear of a disappointing jobs report put pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar’s decline reversed. The dollar added 0.8%, matching Friday’s decline.

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The US market today maintains growth. Inflation Ahead



us market today

The main U.S. index closed the week near the highs of recent months, the highest prices since early May. The US market today has rallied for four straight weeks as the S&P500-index closed above its 50- and 100-day averages.

At the end of last week, the July jobs report came out: more than +500K new jobs — almost double the estimate. The unemployment rate of 3.6% is a long-term low. Technically, the U.S. is in a recession — GDP decline in Q1 and Q2, but employment remains strong, although there are reports that the labor market has begun to cool noticeably.

Energy. Oil is up for the week opening, +1%, but oil is below $100; Brent is $95. Oil is under pressure on expectations of slowing demand in China and the U.S.

Europe faces a difficult winter in the economy and a difficult 2023 — said the president of Finland. The reasons are the sharp rise in energy prices and the difficulty in quickly restructuring the energy sector, especially in gas suppliers.

Grain crisis — signs of improvement, several grain carriers left the port of Odessa over the weekend.

U.S.-China trade increased in 7 months, +11.8%, to $452 bln.

The Palestinian-Israeli crisis appears to have been resolved by the beginning of the week — after intense mutual shelling, the sides stopped shelling under an agreement brokered by Egypt. Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system is doing very well — it has shot down as many as 97% of the missiles the Palestinians have launched at Israel.

Warren Buffett’s Bershire Hathaway posted a very large loss, of $43 billion for Q2, compared to a profit a year earlier. The reason was the stock’s decline in Q2. Nevertheless, the company is in good shape and has significant assets in the money.

Tesla reported the release of its 3 millionth car.

The EU adopted by a majority a plan in case of an emergency gas supply shortfall — limiting gas demand. Hungary and Poland opposed it, but the decision was passed by a qualified majority.

The U.S. market remains up despite expectations of a +0.5% Fed rate hike in September, despite a slowing economy. The US market is buyable — but we have to wait for a strong pullback down to the 50-day average.

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