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U.S. stocks end higher as inflation data cements bets on rate hike pause

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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached their highest closes in 14 months on Tuesday after data showed consumer prices rose modestly in May, boosting bets that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates at the end of its policy meeting on Wednesday.

Stocks advanced after a U.S. Labor Department report showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% last month following a 0.4% jump in April, with core inflation unchanged at 0.4%.

On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation increased by a less-than-estimated 4.0%, reflecting declines in the cost of energy products and services, including gasoline and electricity.

“If the Fed was looking for data to point to say, ‘We’re going to pause in June,’ I think they got it today,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi in New York.

“But it’s another one of those that you can cut whichever way you want to make your case. If you want to be bullish, you say inflation is down more than 50% since its peak. If you want to bearish, you can say inflation is still more than twice the Fed’s target,” Young said.

Traders have priced in a 93% chance that the U.S. central bank will hold interest rates at the 5%-5.25% range on Wednesday, and 62% odds of 25-basis-point hike in July, according to the CME Fedwatch tool.

The benchmark S&P 500 SPX has recovered about 22% from its October 2022 closing low, fueled in large part by gains in market heavyweights such as Apple Inc AAPL, Nvidia Corp NVDA and Tesla Inc TSLA. More recently, sectors such as energy SPN and materials S5MATR have climbed, as well as small-cap stocks.

U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies climbed after China’s central bank lowered its short-term lending rate for the first time in 10 months.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc AMD dropped after an update on the chipmaker’s artificial intelligence strategy failed to impress investors.

Unofficially, the S&P 500 climbed 0.69% to end the session at 4,369.06 points.

The Nasdaq gained 0.83% to 13,573.32 points, while Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.43% to 34,212.25 points.

Intel Corp INTC gained after a report the chipmaker is in talks with SoftBank Group Corp’s 9984 Arm to be an anchor investor in its initial public offering.

Bunge Ltd BG rallied after the U.S. grains merchant and Glencore GLEN-backed Viterra said they were merging to create an agricultural trading giant worth about $34 billion, including debt.

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