Forex
UBS sees NZD/USD on shaky ground amid economic headwinds
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UBS expressed caution regarding the New Zealand dollar (NZD), citing a challenging economic outlook and potential for underperformance against other major currencies.
The pair has been trading within the 0.59 to 0.62 range recently, with New Zealand’s relatively high-interest rates offering some support despite a weakening domestic economy.
Inflation in New Zealand remains high, influenced by factors such as rising unemployment, declining business confidence, and ongoing cost-of-living pressures that impact discretionary spending.
However, a slight recovery in dairy prices presents a potential upside to industry forecasts for the years 2024-2025.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained a hawkish stance at its latest meeting, surprising markets by considering a rate hike. The central bank also adjusted its Official Cash Rate (OCR) forward track, hinting at a higher likelihood of further monetary tightening.
Nevertheless, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr, in a recent interview, played down the chances of another rate hike as long as inflation expectations stay anchored. The near-term Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts were revised upwards, and the anticipated return to the target inflation band of 1-3% year-on-year was postponed until the fourth quarter of 2024, with a projection of 2.9% year-on-year.
Economic growth projections for 2024 were reduced to 0.4% year-on-year from the previous 0.9%, with UBS’s estimate even lower at 0.3%. The forecast for 2025 was also trimmed to 1.8% year-on-year from 2.5% year-on-year.
The 2024 Budget announcement by the New Zealand government underscored future challenges, with weaker growth expectations and tax cuts leading to an anticipated NZD 13.4 billion deficit in fiscal year 2025, representing 3.1% of GDP, up from an earlier forecast of a NZD 6.1 billion deficit.
UBS predicts additional government bond issuance, which could push yields higher than their current 10-year forecast of 4%. Regarding interest rates, UBS expects a 25 basis point cut in November and a 50 basis point reduction in February 2025, with a projected terminal rate of 3.25% by the fourth quarter of 2025, down from the current 5.5%.
From an investment perspective, UBS anticipates the New Zealand dollar to lag behind most G10 currencies over the next 12 months. They also foresee a rise in the pair to around 1.15 over the same period, suggesting a long position if the pairing drops to approximately 1.08 or lower.
While technical indicators show NZD is at the upper boundary of its Relative Strength Index (RSI) range and momentum has been positive, it appears to be waning. Key risks to the NZD/USD outlook include potential hawkish moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, and an unexpected rate hike by the RBNZ.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Forex
Major Russian lenders say yuan coffers empty, urge central bank action
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By Elena Fabrichnaya
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Major Russian banks have called on the central bank to take action to counter a yuan liquidity deficit, which has led to the rouble tumbling to its lowest level since April against the Chinese currency and driven yuan swap rates into triple digits.
The rouble fell by almost 5% against the yuan on Sept. 4 on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) after the finance ministry’s plans for forex interventions implied that the central bank’s daily yuan sales would plunge in the coming month to the equivalent of $200 million.
The central bank had been selling $7.3 billion worth of yuan per day during the past month. The plunge coincided with oil giant Rosneft’s 15 billion yuan bond placement, which also sapped liquidity from the market.
“We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” said Sberbank CEO German Gref, stressing that the central bank needed to participate more actively in the market.
The yuan has become the most traded foreign currency on MOEX after Western sanctions halted exchange trade in dollars and euros, with many banks developing yuan-denominated products for their clients.
Yuan liquidity is mainly provided by the central bank through daily sales and one-day yuan swaps, as well as through currency sales by exporting companies.
Chinese banks in Russia, meanwhile, are avoiding currency trading for fear of secondary Western sanctions.
At the start of September, banks raised a record 35 billion yuan from the central bank through its one-day swaps.
“I think the central bank can do something. They hopefully understand the need to increase the liquidity offer through swaps,” said Andrei Kostin, CEO of second-largest lender VTB, stressing that exporters should sell more yuan as well.
The acute yuan shortage also follows months of delays in payments for trade with Russia by Chinese banks, which have grown wary of dealing with Russia after U.S. threats of secondary Western sanctions. These problems culminated in August in billions of yuan being stuck in limbo.
Russia and China have been discussing a joint system for bilateral payments, but no breakthrough is in sight. VTB’s Kostin said that since Russia’s trade with China was balanced, establishing a clearing mechanism for payments in national currencies should not be a problem.
Forex
Bank of America sees more downside for the dollar
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Investing,com – The US dollar has stabilized after a sharp fall in August, but Bank of America Securities sees more troubles ahead for the US currency.
At 07:20 ET (11:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.077, having largely held its course over the last week.
That said, the US currency is still down 1.6% over the month.
The dollar’s selloff last month stood out in a historical context, according to analysts at Bank of America Securities, in a note dated Sept. 5.
The greenback has since stabilized, however, despite the outsized weakness, the US bank still sees three reasons to stay bearish on the Dollar Index (DXY).
Following similar episodes of bearish DXY breakouts, the index has tended to continue its downtrend, the bank said.
In the last 3 analogs, DXY index fell on average for another 4% before reaching a bottom. Extending this analysis to bilateral USD/G10 pairs suggests a continuation of the USD downtrend is more likely vs EUR, GBP, and AUD than SEK, NOK, and CHF in G10.
While the DXY made a new year-to-date low in August, broad nominal and real USD trade-weighted indices have stayed at Q4 2022 levels and would suggest the USD remains overvalued.
The USD selloff in 2024 has been concentrated in and other European currencies, leading to DXY divergence from other USD indices.
The bank also noted US 10y Treasury yield’s tendency to fall after the first Federal Reserve cut, while global financial conditions are set to loosen further.
“USD may see more weakness as other central banks, particularly the ones that cut policy rates ahead of the Fed, can now afford to let the Fed do some of their work and indirectly support global economies outside of the US,” BoA added.
Forex
Dollar’s demise appears overstated – JPMorgan
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Investing.com – The US dollar has had a difficult summer, dropping substantially during the month of August, but JPMorgan thinks those predicting the demise of the U.S. currency are getting ahead of themselves.
At 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.127, having lost 1.6% over the course of the last month.
“Diversification away from the dollar is a growing trend,” said analysts at JPMorgan, in a note dated Sept. 4, “but we find that the factors that support dollar dominance remain well-entrenched and structural in nature.”
The dollar’s role in global finance and its economic and financial stability implications are supported by deep and liquid capital markets, rule of law and predictable legal systems, commitment to a free-floating regime, and smooth functioning of the financial system for USD liquidity and institutional transparency, the bank added.
Additionally, the genuine confidence of the private sector in the dollar as a store of value seems uncontested, and the dollar remains the most widely used currency across a variety of metrics.
That said, “we are witnessing greater diversification and important shifts in cross-border transactions as a result of sanctions against Russia, China’s efforts to bolster usage of the RMB, and geoeconomic fragmentation,” JPMorgan said.
The more important and underappreciated risk, the bank added, is the increased focus on payments autonomy and the desire to develop alternative financial systems and payments mechanisms that do not rely on the US dollar.
“De-dollarization risks appear exaggerated, but cross-border flows are dramatically transforming within trading blocs and commodity markets, along with a rise in alternative financial architecture for global payments,” JPMorgan said.
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