Forex
US soft landing consistent with weaker dollar: Goldman Sachs
Investing.com — As the global economy grapples with uncertainties, the United States appears to be on track to achieve a “soft landing,” a scenario where the economy slows down without entering a recession.
This potential outcome, as per analysts at Goldman Sachs, aligns with a weakening . “Despite recent market turbulence, the US economy looks close to achieving a soft landing, with the Fed likely to deliver the first non-recessionary cut in September,” the analysts said.
The expectation is that this policy move will help the economy stabilize without tipping into a full-blown recession.
The term “soft landing” refers to a situation where economic growth slows enough to curb inflation but not to the extent that it triggers a recession.
Historically, achieving such an outcome has been challenging, but the current economic indicators suggest that the US might be able to navigate this delicate balance.
The analysts at Goldman Sachs flag a unique development in the current economic environment: the recent recovery in risk sentiment has been accompanied by dollar weakness, rather than strength, as seen in previous periods of strong US equity performance. This shift has added momentum to the “soft landing, weaker dollar” trade.
Several factors contribute to this scenario. The Fed’s potential rate cuts are a significant driver, as they can adjust real rates faster than other central banks facing downside risks to growth.
When these rate cuts are perceived as part of policy normalization rather than a response to a recession, they tend to support equity markets. In turn, this equity upside, coupled with improving global growth expectations and positive risk sentiment, typically exerts downward pressure on the dollar.
Goldman Sachs’ further indicates that the dollar’s relationship with US growth is more relative than absolute.
The dollar does not consistently strengthen when US growth is robust, nor does it always weaken during periods of weak growth. Instead, the dollar’s performance is closely tied to how US growth compares to growth in other major economies.
For instance, when US growth is negative while the rest of the world experiences positive growth, the dollar tends to weaken. This relationship underscores the importance of considering global economic conditions when assessing the dollar’s trajectory in response to US economic data.
“Especially now, we would caution that the sensitivity of the broad Dollar to relative equity performance is at least as high as that to relative rates this year,” the analysts said. When US equities are driving global equity outperformance, the dollar tends to strengthen.
However, in the current environment, where the Fed is expected to ease monetary policy while US equities remain strong, this dynamic could limit the extent of the dollar’s decline.
The dollar’s current valuation is partly a reflection of the superior returns offered by US assets over an extended period.
This has attracted significant foreign investment, with nearly 30% of cross-border assets now allocated to the US. Such demand has supported the dollar’s high valuation, making it less susceptible to rapid depreciation.
However, as the US approaches a potential soft landing, the combination of easing monetary policy and strong equity markets may create conditions for a gradual weakening of the dollar.
Goldman Sachs analysts caution that while the dollar may face downward pressure, the process is likely to be gradual, with the dollar’s rich valuation providing a buffer against rapid declines.
UBS advised investors to sell any potential short-term gains in the US dollar, adopting a more bearish stance on the currency for the medium term. The firm anticipates a possible corrective rebound in September, particularly if the Federal Reserve’s hesitancy to implement rate cuts greater than 25 basis points aligns with the seasonal trend of the US dollar outperforming during this month.
The current market positioning data indicates that the fast money shorts against the dollar are predominantly in the Euro (EUR) and British Pound (GBP), with both currencies potentially vulnerable in the near term. However, UBS views the GBP as a buy on dips, citing a more supportive domestic rates outlook and historical patterns of a strong recovery in sterling from late October to early November.
In contrast, the Japanese Yen (JPY) positioning is relatively neutral, suggesting the unwinding of short-term yen-funded carry trades. The Yen is also gaining from the return of its inverse correlation with equities, which has elevated it to one of the top performers in the G10 currencies.
Moreover, the Swiss Franc (CHF) has performed well and, without significant intervention from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), is expected to remain supported as residual franc shorts are covered. UBS has set a target for at 0.93.
The firm’s updated cross-border mergers and acquisitions tracker reveals a deal balance that is most negative for the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD), and Swedish Krona (SEK), but positive for the GBP and JPY. For Australia, the tracker indicates a moderation in the rising trend of the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) balance, which has reached a 12-month surplus of 2.1% of GDP in the second quarter, the highest since pre-Covid times. This is supported by strong demand for Australian fixed income, which is helping to offset a widening current account deficit.
UBS notes that Australian goods export volumes have remained stable, suggesting that the worsening trade balance is due to falling commodity export prices and rising import volumes. However, they believe the impact on the AUD may be limited as the currency did not significantly appreciate during the post-Covid commodity price surge, and the increase in imports may reflect strong domestic demand, which is why UBS maintains a constructive outlook on the AUD.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
BCA Research provided insights into the anticipated monetary policy actions by central banks in China and the United States. The research firm expects Chinese authorities to lower interest rates on existing mortgage loans, while the Federal Reserve is predicted to begin its monetary easing cycle.
According to BCA Research, a potential 100-basis-point cut in Chinese mortgage rates could save homeowners in China approximately RMB 300 billion ($44.7 billion) annually on interest payments.
Despite these potential savings, BCA Research suggests that the impact on China’s broader economy would be limited. The firm points out that subdued consumption is likely to persist due to factors such as weak labor market prospects, slower income growth, and household reluctance to take on new debt.
BCA Research also commented on the recent appreciation of the (RMB), deeming it unsustainable over the next six months. The firm believes that even with the Federal Reserve’s easing, the U.S. economy is not likely to be steered away from a recession. In this context, BCA Research views the U.S. dollar as a counter-cyclical currency that is expected to rebound.
Looking ahead, BCA Research anticipates that a U.S. recession could evolve into a global trade contraction by early 2025. The firm points to China’s economic vulnerability to such a downturn, which could negatively affect the value of the RMB.
Moreover, BCA Research forecasts that China will continue to experience disinflationary or deflationary pressures, necessitating the central bank to keep policy rates low. This environment of low interest rates coupled with modest growth is anticipated to restrain any significant appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies gained ground on Wednesday as the dollar retreated in the wake of a fiery U.S. presidential debate, with focus turning to key upcoming inflation data due later in the day.
The Japanese yen was among the biggest beneficiaries of this trade, with increased safe haven demand after the debate putting the yen at its strongest level since early-January. The yen also benefited from somewhat hawkish-leaning comments from Bank of Japan officials.
Broader Asian currencies advanced on Wednesday, seeing some relief from a softer dollar. But regional markets were still nursing steep losses over the past week amid waning risk appetite.
Dollar dips after presidential debate; CPI awaited
The and both fell about 0.2% in Asian trade, with losses in the greenback coming in the wake of a fiery presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
The debate furthered expectations for a hotly contested 2024 presidential race, which could present a major point of uncertainty for markets, given the contrasting views on policy pushed by both candidates. Harris and Trump both veered from the presented topics to engage in personal attacks against each other.
The dollar was also on the backfoot ahead of key inflation data due later in the day, which is widely expected to provide more cues on interest rates.
The reading comes just a week before a , where investors expect the central bank to cut rates by at least 25 basis points.
Japanese yen at 8-mth high on safe haven demand, BOJ hawkspeak
The yen was the best performer in Asia, with the pair falling 0.8% to 141.38 yen- its lowest level since early-January.
The currency benefited from some safe haven plays, as uncertainty over the U.S. election ramped up after Tuesday’s debate.
But a main point of support for the yen was hawkish comments from BOJ member Junko Nakagawa, who said that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if inflation moves in line with its forecast.
Nakagawa’s comments come following a slew of hawkish signals from the BOJ, and were also made just a week before a BOJ meeting. Investors are uncertain over another rate hike by the central bank, following a 15 basis point raise in late-July.
Broader Asian currencies advanced, albeit slightly, as focus turned to the upcoming U.S. CPI reading.
The Chinese yuan’s pair fell 0.1%, but the yuan remained on the backfoot as U.S. policymakers proposed several more trade restrictions against Beijing.
The South Korean won’s pair fell 0.3%, while the Singapore dollar’s pair shed 0.2%.
The Indian rupee’s pair steadied near 84 rupees, while the Australian dollar’s pair was flat after sliding from over nine-month highs over the past week.
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