Forex
USD/CHF: trading instrument is preparing to continue its decline
USD/CHF is trading in a corrective trend around 0.9686, amid a decline in the American currency.
Nevertheless, there are also no signs of a stronger franc at the moment. Instead, the economic situation in Switzerland is rapidly deteriorating, and soon the country may face a severe energy crisis.
At least that is what Michael Frank, director of the Association of Electricity Companies (VSE) of the country, said. According to him, the power outages were caused by a reduction in gas supplies from Russia and the shutdown of nuclear power plants in France for maintenance. Frank sees the only measure to stabilize the situation as a gradual reduction of resource consumption, which includes, in particular, limiting the lighting of shop windows and streets, and if this is not enough, then alternating shutdowns for four hours in certain regions.
The Swiss authorities predict an increase in the negative dynamics of electricity prices. According to Urs Meister, head of the Federal Electricity Commission (ElCom), next year ordinary citizens’ bills may increase by an average of 20%. Such a conclusion was made based on the results of the survey of suppliers who intended to adjust prices by 47% upward amid increasing costs of coal; probable problems with exports from neighboring countries, and the global uncertainty regarding supply.
As for the US currency, it continues its gradual decline ahead of the next US Federal Reserve meeting and is trading at 106,800 points in the USD Index today. Negative pressure on quotations was put by the national labor market data, published the day before.
Thus, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits increased up to 251 thousand from 244 thousand a week earlier, which considerably exceeded the analysts’ forecasted cut to 240 thousand, and as a result the total number of citizens entitled to receive payments from the government grew to 1,384 million from 1,333 million last week.
Support and Resistance Levels
On the global chart of the asset, the price is correcting within a sideways channel, preparing to continue its local decline. Technical indicators have almost turned around and gave a sell signal: fast EMAs of the alligator indicator are close to the signal line, whereas the AO oscillator histogram has already moved into the sell zone and continues to form downward bars.
- Support levels: 0.9652, 0.9530.
- Resistance levels: 0.9739, 1.0000.
Trading scenarios
Short positions should be opened after the final reversal, and continuation of the local decline of the asset, as well as fixation of the price below the level of local support at 0.9652, with the target at 0.9530. Stop-loss – 0.9710. Realization term: 7 days or more.
Long positions should be opened after the continuation of the global growth of the asset, as well as fixation of the price above the level of local resistance 0.9739, aiming at 1.0000. Stop-loss – 0.9650.
U.S. stock index futures are rising Thursday, trading data showed. Markets are assessing the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures rose 0.22% to 32,329 points, the NASDAQ high-tech index rose 0.96% to 12,828.5 points and the S&P 500 broad market index rose 0.48% to 3,989.75 points.
The Fed on Wednesday expectedly raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.75-5% per year. The regulator noted that it does not expect the rate reduction this year, but allows it next year. U.S. exchanges were down 1.6% in Wednesday trading.
According to the CME Group, 55.8% of analysts now expect the Fed’s discount rate to remain unchanged in May, while 44.2% expect it to rise another 25 basis points. Thus, markets concede that the Fed may interrupt the cycle of hikes that began last March.
At the same time, shares of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase were down 10.6% in pre-bid trading. The exchange this week received notice from U.S. authorities of an impending charge of violating laws.
Later in the trading, statistics on initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week through March 18 will be released. Analysts forecast that the figure would increase by 5 thousand to 197 thousand applications.
Earlier we reported that the US budget deficit was $262bn in February.
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According to a report from the U.S. Treasury Department, the U.S. budget deficit in February was $262,434 billion compared to a $38.8 billion deficit in January. The Dow 30 also had problems.
Analysts at DailyFX suggested that the nation’s budget deficit for February was expected to be $256 billion. A year earlier, in February, the U.S. posted a budget deficit of $216,590 billion.
According to the GAO report, U.S. government spending rose 3.5 percent year over year last month to $524.548 billion, while revenue, in contrast, declined 9.5 percent to $262,114 billion.
Earlier, the U.S. edition of the Washington Post published an editorial stating that the new draft budget proposed by the Biden administration undermines U.S. national security and its ability to invest in the future, because it suggests a further growth of the U.S. national debt.
The WP editorial board noted that the new draft budget assumes a $2 trillion budget deficit, including due to the high cost of providing health insurance to the elderly of the baby boomer generation.
Earlier we reported that the EU has agreed to reduce energy consumption by 11.7% by 2030.
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