Investor confidence in the euro weakening against the dollar continues to grow. The number of net positions for sale of the European currency is at its highest since the pandemic COVID-19, writes the Financial Times.
Pressure on the euro is given by traders’ concerns that rising energy prices will lead to a recession in the economy of the region, as well as the overall strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is supported by the aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (FRS).
Why is the euro weakening today?
According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net open positions to sell the euro during the week to 23 August totaled 44.1 thousand, compared to 42.8 thousand the week before. This is the highest since the first week of March 2020, when the number of open “short” positions in the euro reached 86.7 thousand.
The Euro is weakening against the dollar. It has fallen more than 14% since the beginning of this year and last week renewed a 20-year low amid a jump in gas prices.
“The euro exchange rate is now entirely driven by the European energy crisis,” said TD Securities currency analyst Mark McCormick. – “The key driver of euro value over the next couple of weeks will be news regarding the Nord Stream pipeline as well as gas prices.”
The increase in short positions in the euro is also because the dollar is considered a “safe haven in a storm” as well as the absence of a gas crisis in the U.S., says David Adams, who is in charge of foreign exchange strategy at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).
Rising gas prices have forced investors to revise their forecasts on how long high inflation in the eurozone will last and how badly the European economy will suffer, the FT notes. European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Committee member Isabelle Schnabel and Bank of France governor Francois Villrois de Galo warned last week at an economic symposium in Jackson Hole that ECB monetary policy will have to remain tight for an extended time.
According to Adams, a risk factor for investors betting on further euro weakness is the possibility of a reversal of the “flow of money” that is now moving from Europe to the U.S. and elsewhere in the next 6-12 months as the ECB raises key interest rates, making European assets more attractive.
Earlier we reported that the dollar was strengthening against other currencies in anticipation of the Fed chief’s speech.
Current gold prices combined above $1,700 an ounce
Current gold prices rose on Tuesday morning; the price was above $1,700 dollars per troy ounce, according to trading data.
The price of December gold futures on the New York Comex Exchange rose by $6.85, or 0.4%, to $1,708.85 per troy ounce. December silver futures rose 1.53% to $20,905 per ounce.
Daily gold prices were supported by a decline in yields on U.S. government bonds. Thus, the yield on ten-year government bonds (U.S. Treasuries) fell to 3.615% from the previous close of 3.651%, while at the beginning of Monday’s trading the indicator exceeded 3.8%.
U.S. Treasuries are an alternative investment to gold, which is why their quotes tend to move in different directions. As a result, gold gained 2.3% on Monday, from $1,670 to $1,710.
Earlier, we reported that oil rises in anticipation of possible OPEC+ production cuts.
Oil price rises in anticipation of possible OPEC+ production cuts
The price of oil rose on Tuesday as markets await an agreement from the OPEC+ meeting on a major production cut that will temper the impact of worries about the global economy.
Why is oil rising today?
Oil prices jumped more than $3 on Monday amid reports that OPEC+ will consider production cuts of nearly 1 million bpd at the cartel’s first off-line meeting since 2020 on Wednesday.
Brent crude futures rose 0.54% to $89.34 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 0.43% to $83.97 a barrel.
Voluntary reductions in oil production by individual OPEC+ member countries will be counted on top of the overall agreed quota cut, which could be the largest reduction since the pandemic began.
“Despite everything going on in Ukraine, OPEC+ has never been stronger, and they will do everything they can to provide price support,” OANDA’s Edward Moya wrote in a research note.
“While OPEC+ may be announcing a production cut of more than 1 million bpd, in reality the cuts could be much smaller. This is due to the fact that most OPEC+ members are already well below target levels,” ING analysts said in a note.
Rising prices may be limited by concerns about the state of the world economy and the desire of investors to lock in profits from the previous session, said Tina Teng of CMC Markets.
Earlier we reported the most important Forex news for October 3.
Most important forex news: what you need to know on October 3
Most important forex news: markets were relatively calm on Monday during Asian trading hours, but volatility increased in the early European morning. Market participants are closely watching the political developments in the UK ahead of S&P Global publishing its final September PMI indices for Germany, Eurozone, the UK, and Canada.
Important news for forex trading – what should a trader look out for?
Let’s take a look at important news for forex trading. At the end of the day, the US will release the ISM manufacturing PMI for September. Several FOMC policymakers, including Kansas City Fed Governor Esther George and New York Fed Chief John Williams will also make speeches later in the day.
After a modest rise on Friday, the U.S. dollar index turned south and broke below 112.00. U.S. stock index futures are trading mixed in the European session, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is losing more than 1 percent, falling below 3.8 percent.
In Asian trading hours, data from Japan showed that the Tankan Large Manufacturing Business Activity Index fell to 8 in the third quarter, missing market expectations of 11. On the positive side, the non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 14 in the same period from 13.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated that the government keeps a close eye on exchange rate fluctuations. USD/JPY reacted to Suzuki’s comments.
Earlier we reported that American dollar rate declines against the euro and pound, and goes up against the yen.
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