Forex
Yen rises as traders look to BOJ, while dollar holds steady
![](https://letizo.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/yen-rises-as-traders-look-to-boj-while-dollar-holdssteady_669fc60f7da69.jpeg)
By Harry Robertson and Rae Wee
LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The yen rose on Tuesday as investors reacted to comments from a senior Japanese politician that added to pressure on the Bank of Japan to keep hiking rates to boost the currency.
Meanwhile, the dollar inched higher as traders waited for inflation data later in the week, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars suffered after China’s surprise interest rate cut.
The dollar was last down 0.55% against the Japanese yen at 156.13, after falling to a five-week low of 155.375 on Thursday.
Senior ruling party official Toshimitsu Motegi said overnight that the Bank of Japan should more clearly indicate its resolve to normalise monetary policy, including through steady interest rate hikes. The BOJ next sets rates on July 31.
“The yen derived support from further comments from Japanese politicians overnight,” said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at Japanese bank MUFG, who added that his comments indicated “growing unease” among politicians about BOJ policy.
“It closely follows calls last week from Digital Transformation Minister Kono Taro who called on the BOJ to raise interest rates to provide more support for the yen.”
The yen has found some support on the back of Tokyo’s recent bouts of intervention to prop up the currency and as traders looked to the BOJ’s decision. However, most economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to keep rates on hold at the meeting.
The , which tracks the U.S. currency against six peers, rose slightly to 104.36, after falling to a four-month low of 103.64 last week.
The euro was down 0.22% at $1.0868. Sterling was 0.15% lower at $1.2911.
Trading was relatively subdued in a week with little in the way of economic data until the release of U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation figures for June on Friday.
The market reaction to U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to bow out of the election race was muted, though there was some unwinding of the so-called Trump trade, which has seen the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields ease a touch.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars struggled to regain their footing on Tuesday after China’s move to cut several key interest rates.
China surprised markets on Monday by cutting major short and long-term interest rates in its first such broad move since last August, signalling intent to boost growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
The two Antipodean currencies, often used as liquid proxies for the , extended losses after slumping in the previous session in the wake of the news.
The Australian dollar fell to a three-week low of $0.6622, while the New Zealand dollar hit its weakest level since early May at $0.5962.
“For the and the , they tend to be reflecting a more liquid and free expression in terms of the realities currently facing the Chinese economy,” said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank (OTC:).
Forex
Major Russian lenders say yuan coffers empty, urge central bank action
![](https://letizo.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/major-russian-lenders-say-yuan-coffers-empty-urge-centralbank-action_66dc6b1523127.jpeg)
By Elena Fabrichnaya
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Major Russian banks have called on the central bank to take action to counter a yuan liquidity deficit, which has led to the rouble tumbling to its lowest level since April against the Chinese currency and driven yuan swap rates into triple digits.
The rouble fell by almost 5% against the yuan on Sept. 4 on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) after the finance ministry’s plans for forex interventions implied that the central bank’s daily yuan sales would plunge in the coming month to the equivalent of $200 million.
The central bank had been selling $7.3 billion worth of yuan per day during the past month. The plunge coincided with oil giant Rosneft’s 15 billion yuan bond placement, which also sapped liquidity from the market.
“We cannot lend in yuan because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” said Sberbank CEO German Gref, stressing that the central bank needed to participate more actively in the market.
The yuan has become the most traded foreign currency on MOEX after Western sanctions halted exchange trade in dollars and euros, with many banks developing yuan-denominated products for their clients.
Yuan liquidity is mainly provided by the central bank through daily sales and one-day yuan swaps, as well as through currency sales by exporting companies.
Chinese banks in Russia, meanwhile, are avoiding currency trading for fear of secondary Western sanctions.
At the start of September, banks raised a record 35 billion yuan from the central bank through its one-day swaps.
“I think the central bank can do something. They hopefully understand the need to increase the liquidity offer through swaps,” said Andrei Kostin, CEO of second-largest lender VTB, stressing that exporters should sell more yuan as well.
The acute yuan shortage also follows months of delays in payments for trade with Russia by Chinese banks, which have grown wary of dealing with Russia after U.S. threats of secondary Western sanctions. These problems culminated in August in billions of yuan being stuck in limbo.
Russia and China have been discussing a joint system for bilateral payments, but no breakthrough is in sight. VTB’s Kostin said that since Russia’s trade with China was balanced, establishing a clearing mechanism for payments in national currencies should not be a problem.
Forex
Bank of America sees more downside for the dollar
![](https://letizo.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/bank-of-america-sees-more-downside-for-the-dollar_66dc6b1b4bb7b.jpeg)
Investing,com – The US dollar has stabilized after a sharp fall in August, but Bank of America Securities sees more troubles ahead for the US currency.
At 07:20 ET (11:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.077, having largely held its course over the last week.
That said, the US currency is still down 1.6% over the month.
The dollar’s selloff last month stood out in a historical context, according to analysts at Bank of America Securities, in a note dated Sept. 5.
The greenback has since stabilized, however, despite the outsized weakness, the US bank still sees three reasons to stay bearish on the Dollar Index (DXY).
Following similar episodes of bearish DXY breakouts, the index has tended to continue its downtrend, the bank said.
In the last 3 analogs, DXY index fell on average for another 4% before reaching a bottom. Extending this analysis to bilateral USD/G10 pairs suggests a continuation of the USD downtrend is more likely vs EUR, GBP, and AUD than SEK, NOK, and CHF in G10.
While the DXY made a new year-to-date low in August, broad nominal and real USD trade-weighted indices have stayed at Q4 2022 levels and would suggest the USD remains overvalued.
The USD selloff in 2024 has been concentrated in and other European currencies, leading to DXY divergence from other USD indices.
The bank also noted US 10y Treasury yield’s tendency to fall after the first Federal Reserve cut, while global financial conditions are set to loosen further.
“USD may see more weakness as other central banks, particularly the ones that cut policy rates ahead of the Fed, can now afford to let the Fed do some of their work and indirectly support global economies outside of the US,” BoA added.
Forex
Dollar’s demise appears overstated – JPMorgan
![](https://letizo.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/dollars-demise-appears-overstated-jpmorgan_66dc6b208bdf2.jpeg)
Investing.com – The US dollar has had a difficult summer, dropping substantially during the month of August, but JPMorgan thinks those predicting the demise of the U.S. currency are getting ahead of themselves.
At 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 101.127, having lost 1.6% over the course of the last month.
“Diversification away from the dollar is a growing trend,” said analysts at JPMorgan, in a note dated Sept. 4, “but we find that the factors that support dollar dominance remain well-entrenched and structural in nature.”
The dollar’s role in global finance and its economic and financial stability implications are supported by deep and liquid capital markets, rule of law and predictable legal systems, commitment to a free-floating regime, and smooth functioning of the financial system for USD liquidity and institutional transparency, the bank added.
Additionally, the genuine confidence of the private sector in the dollar as a store of value seems uncontested, and the dollar remains the most widely used currency across a variety of metrics.
That said, “we are witnessing greater diversification and important shifts in cross-border transactions as a result of sanctions against Russia, China’s efforts to bolster usage of the RMB, and geoeconomic fragmentation,” JPMorgan said.
The more important and underappreciated risk, the bank added, is the increased focus on payments autonomy and the desire to develop alternative financial systems and payments mechanisms that do not rely on the US dollar.
“De-dollarization risks appear exaggerated, but cross-border flows are dramatically transforming within trading blocs and commodity markets, along with a rise in alternative financial architecture for global payments,” JPMorgan said.
- Forex2 years ago
Forex Today: the dollar is gaining strength amid gloomy sentiment at the start of the Fed’s week
- Forex2 years ago
How is the Australian dollar doing today?
- Forex2 years ago
Dollar to pound sterling exchange rate today: Pound plummeted to its lowest since 1985
- Forex2 years ago
Unbiased review of Pocket Option broker
- Cryptocurrency2 years ago
What happened in the crypto market – current events today
- World2 years ago
Why are modern video games an art form?
- Stock Markets2 years ago
Morgan Stanley: bear market rally to continue
- Commodities2 years ago
Copper continues to fall in price on expectations of lower demand in China