Connect with us
  • tg

Forex

Yen slides, dollar gains as BOJ seen maintaining loose policy

letizo News

Published

on

Yen slides, dollar gains as BOJ seen maintaining loose policy
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

By Karen Brettell and Iain Withers

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The yen dropped against the dollar on Friday after Reuters reported the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is leaning toward keeping its key yield control policy unchanged next week, ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings that includes the U.S. and Europe.

BoJ policymakers prefer to scrutinize more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising before changing the policy, five sources familiar with the matter said. The report added there was no consensus within the central bank and the decision could still be a close call.

“All expectations are for them to keep yield curve control as is and no changes to rates, but maybe a little upgrade on their inflation outlook,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York.

However, “the chances that we could get a surprise should remain on the table,” Moya added. “The BOJ is potentially going to be a major market-moving event because time’s running out on the BOJ to really set up a policy shift.”

With inflation having exceeded the BoJ’s target for more than a year, markets have been simmering with speculation the central bank could tweak yield curve control as early as the July 27-28 meeting.

Data earlier on Friday showed Japan’s core inflation rose to 3.3%, matching a median market forecast but remaining ahead of the BoJ’s 2% target.

The dollar gained 1.24% to 141.81 yen, after earlier reaching 141.95, the highest since July 10. It is trading just below the 145.07 level reached on June 30, which was the highest since Nov. 10.

The greenback is on track for its best weekly percentage gain against the Japanese currency since October at 2.22%.

Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research for FX and rates at Societe Generale (OTC:), said the sharp move in the yen on Friday might prompt Japan’s finance ministry to make further public comments to try to support the currency.

“It puts more pressure again on the Ministry of Finance,” Broux said.

Japanese authorities will consider all options to deal with excess volatility in the currency market, the country’s top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, was reported as saying on Friday.

FED FOCUS

Central bank meetings from the United States and Europe are also due next week, with the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both expected to raise rates by 25 basis points.

Investors will focus on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the U.S. central bank’s rate decision on Wednesday for any clues on whether it is likely to continue hiking rates.

Moya said that Powell is most likely to “keep optionality on the table – there is no reason for them to commit to September when you have two inflation reports that will happen post-next week’s meeting.”

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 33 basis points of additional tightening this year with rates expected to peak at 5.41% in November.

“We could see the last rate hike in this cycle, but any dovish pivot seems far out,” Christian Scherrmann, U.S. economist at DWS, said.

The – which tracks the greenback against six major peers – rose 0.30% to 101.06. The index was on track for a 1.14% weekly gain, its biggest rise in two months.

The euro fell 0.05% against the dollar to $1.1123.

The pound fell for a sixth day versus the dollar – its longest stretch of daily losses since last September – and was last down 0.07% at $1.2859.

It briefly bounced earlier on Friday after data showed UK consumer spending was stronger than expected in June.

The pound is on track for a 1.75% weekly fall, its largest since early February.

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 3:00PM (1900 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Dollar index 101.0600 100.7700 +0.30% -2.348% +101.1900 +100.7100

Euro/Dollar $1.1123 $1.1130 -0.05% +3.82% +$1.1145 +$1.1108

Dollar/Yen 141.8050 140.0700 +1.24% +8.16% +141.9450 +139.7500

Euro/Yen 157.75 155.88 +1.20% +12.44% +158.0400 +155.6000

Dollar/Swiss 0.8661 0.8668 -0.12% -6.37% +0.8672 +0.8644

Sterling/Dollar $1.2859 $1.2868 -0.07% +6.33% +$1.2903 +$1.2817

Dollar/Canadian 1.3206 1.3172 +0.26% -2.54% +1.3226 +1.3154

Aussie/Dollar $0.6730 $0.6779 -0.70% -1.25% +$0.6788 +$0.6723

Euro/Swiss 0.9634 0.9646 -0.12% -2.64% +0.9651 +0.9619

Euro/Sterling 0.8649 0.8647 +0.02% -2.20% +0.8679 +0.8635

NZ $0.6171 $0.6233 -0.98% -2.80% +$0.6240 +$0.6170

Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway 10.0720 10.0820 -0.17% +2.56% +10.1030 +10.0300

Euro/Norway 11.2073 11.2064 +0.01% +6.80% +11.2326 +11.1499

Dollar/Sweden 10.3884 10.3417 +0.40% -0.19% +10.4164 +10.3287

Euro/Sweden 11.5559 11.5095 +0.40% +3.60% +11.5765 +11.5060

Forex

Dollar strengthens versus yen as BOJ strikes cautious stance on rate hikes

letizo News

Published

on

By Chibuike Oguh and Linda Pasquini

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday, hitting its highest level in two weeks, after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged and indicated that it was not in a hurry to hike them again.

The BOJ could afford to spend time eyeing the fallout from global economic uncertainties, Governor Kazuo Ueda said in a press conference following the central bank’s move, adding that its monetary policy decision will be based on “economic, price and financial developments.” The BOJ kept rates steady at 0.25%, a move that was widely expected.

The dollar rose as high as 144.50 yen, reaching its highest level since early September. It was last up 0.92% at 143.92. The euro also strengthened against the yen, gaining 0.93% to 160.59.

“We’re seeing a little bit of consolidation in markets that got the dollar-yen move, which has been quite significant in the past few days since the Fed,” said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto, referring to the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday to cut interest rates by half a percentage point.

“The statement sounded perhaps a little bit more cautious than markets would have liked given the assumption that we will see another rate cut from the Bank of Japan before Christmas. I still think that’s likely.”

The dollar has traded in a choppy fashion since the Fed kicked off its monetary policy easing cycle.

Against the dollar, however, the euro weakened 0.01% to $1.115925. The , which measures the greenback against major currencies, gained slightly to 100.75 and just above a one-year low.

“There’s a sense in the market that the Bank of Japan doesn’t need to hike rates and also we’re turning more to the political situation in Japan,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto.

Markets imply nearly a 49% chance the Fed will deliver another 50-basis-point rate cut in November and have priced in 74.8 bps of cuts by the end of this year. The Fed’s policy rate is expected by the end of 2025 to be at 2.85%, which is now thought to be the Fed’s estimate of the neutral rate.

That dovish outlook has bolstered hopes for continued U.S. economic growth and sparked a major rally in risk assets. Currencies leveraged to global growth and commodity prices also benefited, with the Australian dollar reaching as high as $0.68285. It was last down 0.13% to $0.68060.

“It runs counter-intuitive to what we’ve seen in the market, with a big cut from the Fed and the Bank of Japan holding rates. I think that the message really from dollar-yen is that the market is feeling better about global growth,” Button said.

China unexpectedly left benchmark lending rates unchanged at the monthly fixing on Friday. Beijing has been hinting at other stimulus measures, enabled in part by the Fed’s aggressive easing that shoved the dollar to a 16-month low against the yuan.

Major Chinese state-owned banks were seen buying dollars in the onshore spot foreign exchange market on Friday to prevent the yuan from appreciating too fast, two people with knowledge of the matter said. The dollar weakened 0.23% to 7.043 versus the offshore .

The Bank of England kept rates unchanged on Thursday, with its governor saying the central bank had to be “careful not to cut too fast or by too much.”

The pound was up 0.24% at $1.33180, supported by the release on Friday of strong British retail sales data.

Currency bid prices at 20              

September​ 06:46 p.m. GMT

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Previous Session Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Dollar index 100.74 100.67 0.07% -0.62% 101.01 100.41

Euro/Dollar 1.1162 1.1162 -0.01% 1.11% $1.1181 $1.1136

Dollar/Yen 143.84 142.62 0.9% 2.03% 144.485 141.84

Euro/Yen 1.1162​ 159.19 0.85% 3.16% 161.15 158.43

Dollar/Swiss 0.8506 0.8478 0.35% 1.09% 0.8516 0.8453

Sterling/Dollar 1.3314 1.3286 0.22% 4.63% $1.3341 $1.3269​

Dollar/Canadian 1.356 1.3557 0.04% 2.31% 1.359 1.3543

Aussie/Dollar 0.6806 0.6815 -0.13% -0.18% $0.6829 $0.6784

Euro/Swiss 0.9494 0.9462 0.34% 2.22% 0.9503 0.9447

Euro/Sterling 0.838 0.8401 -0.25% -3.32% 0.8407 0.8382

NZ Dollar/Dollar 0.6237 0.6242 -0.06% -1.29% $0.6258 0.621

Dollar/Norway 10.4989​ 10.4814 0.17% 3.59% 10.561 10.4482

Euro/Norway 11.7197 11.699 0.18% 4.42% 11.7702 11.681

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Dollar/Sweden 10.1778 10.1512 0.26% 1.1% 10.2309 10.138

Euro/Sweden 11.3604 11.338 0.2% 2.11% 11.3988 11.3326

Continue Reading

Forex

Dollar edges off lows; sterling gains after strong retail sales

letizo News

Published

on

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged higher Friday, but remained under pressure after the Federal Reserve’s large interest rate cut, while sterling rose strongly after healthy UK retail sales data. 

At 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher to 100.480, but remained just above a 12-month low.

Dollar struggling for buyers 

The U.S. dollar is struggling for friends in the wake of the Federal Reserve starting a rate-cutting cycle with a hefty 50 basis points reduction to a range of 4.75% to 5%.

Markets imply a 40% chance the Fed will cut by another 50 basis points in November and have 73 bps priced in by year-end. Rates are seen at 2.85% by the end of 2025, which is now thought to be the Fed’s estimate of neutral.

“But the big question for the market right now is whether the dollar is ready to break out of its two-year range,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “There seems nothing on the agenda today to justify a breakout, but suffice to say we are in the camp looking for some strong follow-through selling should DXY support levels at 99.50/100 give way.” 

Sterling surges this week

In Europe, rose 0.2% to 1.3312, with the pound up over 1% this week having hit its highest since March 2022.

Data released earlier Friday showed that British rose by a stronger-than-expected 1% in August and growth in July was revised up to 0.7%, from a previous estimate of a 0.5% month-on-month increase.

The held its key interest rate at 5% on Thursday, after kicking off its easing with a 25-bp reduction in August.

traded 0.1% higher to 1.1163, up almost 1% for the week and within striking distance of the August peak of 1.1201. 

The cut rates for the second time this year last week, but a degree of uncertainty exists over when the next move will be.

fell less than expected in August, decreasing by 0.8% on the year, below the expected 1.0% decline.

Yen slips after BOJ meeting

rose 0.7% to 143.62 after the held interest rates steady, and said it expected inflation and economic growth to steadily increase.

The BOJ decision and forecast came just hours after consumer price index data showed inflation rose to a 10-month high in August, as increased wages pushed up private consumption. 

While the yen was nursing weekly losses, it still remained close to its strongest levels for 2024, hit earlier in the week.

traded 0.2% lower to 7.0538, after the People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark unchanged, defying some expectations that it would cut rates further to stimulate the economy. 

The PBOC’s decision came even as a raft of recent economic indicators showed sustained weakness in China.

 

Continue Reading

Forex

Asia FX rises as rate cut dents dollar; yen firms as BOJ holds course

letizo News

Published

on

Investing.com– Most Asian currencies firmed on Friday, while the dollar nursed losses after the Federal Reserve cut rates by a wide margin and kicked off an easing cycle. 

The Japanese yen was among the better performers, strengthening after the Bank of Japan held interest rates and said it expected steady increases in inflation and economic growth.

The Chinese yuan also firmed after the People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark rates unchanged, ducking some expectations that it would cut rates to further support the economy. 

Yen firm as BOJ holds rates, flags higher inflation 

The Japanese yen firmed on Friday, with the pair falling 0.2% to 142.28 yen.

The BOJ in a unanimous decision, and said it expected inflation and economic growth to steadily increase.

While the central bank did not provide any overtly hawkish cues, its forecast of higher inflation tied into expectations that the BOJ will raise interest rates further. A slew of policymakers had signaled that rates will rise further in the coming months, especially as inflation picks up. 

The BOJ decision and forecast came just hours after data showed inflation rose to a 10-month high in August, as increased wages pushed up private consumption. 

While the yen was nursing weekly losses, it still remained close to its strongest levels for 2024, hit earlier in the week. Expectations of higher interest rates are likely to underpin the yen in the coming months. 

Dollar weak after rate cut cheer offsets less dovish Fed signals

The and both fell slightly in Asian trade, extending overnight declines as markets looked to lower U.S. interest rates.

The Fed and announced the start of an easing cycle, which could see rates fall by as much as 125 bps by the year-end. 

But Fed Chair Powell offered a less dovish outlook for medium-to-long term rates, stating that the central bank’s neutral rate will be much higher than seen in the past. His comments limited overall losses in the dollar, and had also seen the greenback appreciate in the immediate aftermath of the Fed decision on Wednesday.

Chinese yuan at 16-mth high as PBOC holds rates 

The Chinese yuan firmed on Friday, with the pair falling 0.3% to its lowest level since May 2023. 

Strength in the yuan came as the PBOC kept its benchmark steady, ducking some expectations that it would cut rates further to stimulate the economy. 

The PBOC’s decision came even as a raft of recent economic indicators showed sustained weakness in China.

But media reports said the PBOC was instructing local banks to buy dollars and limit overall strength in the yuan, given that a stronger yuan also weighs on Chinese exports. 

Broader Asian currencies firmed after the Fed’s decision. The Australian dollar’s pair rose 0.2% and was close to an eight-month high.

The South Korean won’s pair was an outlier, rising 0.2%, while the Singapore dollar’s pair fell 0.1%.

The Indian rupee’s pair fell 0.1%, pulling back further from record highs hit earlier this year.

Continue Reading

Trending

©2021-2024 Letizo All Rights Reserved