Forex
Zloty stays strong, CEZ shares jump on higher dividend
Poland’s zloty firmed on Monday to keep up recent gains while the Hungarian forint and Czech crown stayed on the back foot before central bank meetings this week at which the outlook for interest rate cuts will be scrutinised.
On stock markets, the majority state-owned CEZ drove the Prague bourse (.PX) higher as its shares climbed over 3% after the finance ministry said late on Friday it would seek a higher dividend as it looks to plug budget holes.
In Hungary, the central bank meets on Tuesday and is widely expected to deliver a second 100-basis-point cut to its one-day deposit rate which it introduced last year to buck up a sinking forint.
The forint (EUHUF=), which is 16% above record lows hit last autumn, eased 0.2% on Monday, to 373.75 to the euro.
“Last week the market received all the macroeconomic data it needed to prepare for tomorrow, when the market prices the (central bank) to cut its (one-day deposit) rate by 100 bps,” a Budapest trader said, adding trading would likely be in lower volumes before then, especially with U.S. investors on a public holiday on Monday.
Hungary’s rate setters started cutting the one-day deposit rate last month, the first such easing of policy in Europe after a battle with surging inflation since 2021.
Czech central bankers are unlikely to deliver any move when they meet on Wednesday. While the bank had come close to backing a rate hike to cool lingering inflation pressures in May, cooler-than-expected wage growth and government plans to cut deficits since have relieved pressure.
But the outlook for the start of Czech interest rate cuts shifted later to the fourth quarter in a Reuters poll released on Friday.
The crown was steady in morning trade at 23.778 per euro.
With the Czech government looking to tame a deficit growing at a record pace this year, the finance ministry, managing the state’s 70% CEZ stake, said on Friday it would propose the utility pay out all its record 2022 profit.
CEZ shares jumped to their highest in nearly a month.
The Polish zloty was another big mover in central European markets, rising 0.35% to 4.451 to the euro and sticking near a 2-1/2-year high hit this month.
ING said markets were likely to target a move past 4.43.
“The positive factors from Poland that led to PLN purchases in the previous weeks have not changed,” ING said.
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