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As Nikkei soars, Japanese investors rush for the exits

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As foreigners pile into Japan’s steepest stock market rally in years, local investors have been furiously cashing out or even betting against what many see as the beginning of a long-overdue era of profitability and returns.

The Nikkei share average closed out its best month in 2-1/2 years on Wednesday, riding a wave of foreign cash and optimism for corporate reform that has taken it to heights not seen since the country’s asset bubble burst three decades ago.

Yet Japanese investors have been heavy sellers. In April and May, domestic outflows totalled around 2 trillion yen ($14.81 billion) for individual investors and over 2.2 trillion yen for Japanese institutions.

While foreign investors are excited about the prospect of a new era of growth in corporate Japan, domestic investors are eager to catch any profits they can, sticking to a strategy born out of decades of fleeting rallies.

That means future gains may rely on foreigners, who are bullish but notoriously slow to act in size and wary of a market that’s been disappointing for a generation.

“It has been a trend that retail investors sell stocks at a peak. This time short-term investors sold stocks as they were cautious about the sharp gains of the Nikkei,” said Shoichi Arisawa, general manager of the investment research department at IwaiCosmo Securities.

“Long-term investors also sold stocks because they were saddled with losses after the Nikkei made a range-bound move for a long time.”

The country’s retail investors, who hold about 17% of domestic shares, are often net sellers in rising markets, according to strategists, looking to book their profits.

Rakuten Securities strategist Masayuki Kubota said domestic retail investors were the main driver of the market before the collapse of Japan’s bubble economy in 1990, while foreigners were net sellers.

“After the bubble burst, foreigners turned to net buyers and it has been like that for 30 years,” Kubota said.

The benchmark Nikkei and the broader Topix have long frustrated local and overseas investors alike as companies focused on market share ahead of shareholder returns.

But the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s push for better corporate governance and headline-grabbing purchases from famed investor Warren Buffet have propelled the Nikkei to an 18% rise in 2023, making it Asia’s best performing stock market.

“I sold some (when the Nikkei hit a 33-year peak last month) to lock in profits but kept most of them. I even bought some on the dip,” said Ohara, a Tokyo-based investor in his early 30s who only provided his last name.

Ohara said he would sell some of his stocks if the yen strengthened but was looking to add to his portfolio and expects Nikkei to rise further.

Others seem to be actively betting against the tide.

Nomura’s Next Funds Nikkei 225 Double Inverse Index ETF has been popular with individual Japanese speculators in the past and has been in demand this year.

The fund is designed to pay investors two times the opposite of the Nikkei’s daily return, by taking short positions in Nikkei futures.

The fund has seen inflows of nearly $1 billion in the past two months, according to Refinitiv Lipper data, with $579 million in inflows in April the biggest since November 2020.

While domestic and foreign investors are at the opposite ends of the trade, large investors have so far sat out the rally on worries that Nikkei will yet again disappoint and the uncertainty over the Bank of Japan policy outlook.

Analysts polled by Reuters last week expect the benchmark index to return to the psychologically key 30,000 level by year-end, with responses varying widely, revealing a deep split over the Nikkei’s outlook.

A Tokyo-based lawyer in his 60s, who asked not to be named, said Nikkei’s sudden rally was a signal to get out. “I would think that investing in bonds might be better under this environment.”

($1 = 135.0500 yen)

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Constellation nears acquisition of Calpine in major power deal, Bloomberg News

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Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:) Corp. is on the verge of acquiring Calpine Corp., a move that could mark one of the most significant transactions in the power generation industry, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.

Baltimore-based Constellation is negotiating with Calpine’s private equity owners to finalize the terms of a deal that could place the value of Calpine at approximately $30 billion, including the assumption of debt, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

The potential acquisition, which could be announced within the next few weeks, is still subject to ongoing deliberations, report added.

Constellation’s interest in Calpine underscores the strategic moves within the power sector as companies seek to consolidate and expand their market presence.

While the exact terms of the deal are still being discussed, the acquisition’s completion would likely have considerable implications for both Constellation and the wider power generation sector.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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EU could lift some Syria sanctions quickly, France says

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By John Irish and Alexander Ratz

PARIS/BERLIN (Reuters) -European Union sanctions in Syria that obstruct the delivery of humanitarian aid and hinder the country’s recovery could be lifted swiftly, France’s foreign minister said Wednesday.

The United States on Monday issued a sanctions exemption for transactions with governing institutions in Syria for six months after the end of Bashar al-Assad’s rule to try to ease the flow of humanitarian assistance.

Speaking to France Inter radio, Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said the EU could take a similar decision soon without giving precise timing, while adding that lifting more political sanctions would depend on how Syria’s new leadership handled the transition.

“There are other (sanctions), which today hinder access to humanitarian aid, which hinder the recovery of the country. These could be lifted quickly,” said Barrot, who met Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa on Friday with Germany’s foreign minister.

“Finally, there are other sanctions, which we are discussing with our European partners, which could be lifted, but obviously depending on the pace at which our expectations for Syria regarding women and security are taken into account.”

Three European diplomats speaking on condition of anonymity said the EU would seek to agree to lift some sanctions by the time the bloc’s 27 foreign ministers meet in Brussels on Jan. 27.

Two of the diplomats said one aim was to facilitate financial transactions to allow funds to return to the country, ease air transport and lessen sanctions targeting the energy sector to improve power supplies. A third said Germany had put forward a position paper on the potential sanctions to be lifted.

“Due to the new situation, existing sanctions are under scrutiny. Germany has already pitched ideas on this issue,” German foreign ministry spokesperson Christian Wagner said on Wednesday.

“The focus lies on economic questions and return of funds of the Syrian diaspora,” he said.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: France's Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noel Barrot delivers a speech during the annual conference of French ambassadors at the International Conference Centre of the French Foreign Affairs ministry in Paris, France on January 6, 2025.  LUDOVIC MARIN/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

Syria suffers from severe power shortages, with state-supplied electricity available two or three hours per day in most areas. The caretaker government says it aims to provide electricity for up to eight hours per day within two months.

The U.S. waivers allow some energy transactions and personal remittances to Syria until July 7, but do not remove any sanctions.

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Yellen says CFIUS made “thorough analysis” of blocked US Steel-Nippon Steel merger

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that Nippon Steel’s blocked acquisition of U.S. Steel received a “thorough analysis” by an interagency national security review body that was sent to President Joe Biden.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City, U.S., October 17, 2024.  REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo

Yellen, in a live interview on CNBC, said she could not discuss specifics of the review of the merger blocked by Biden last week that is now the subject of a lawsuit that alleges that the review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) was not conducted in good faith and was prejudiced by Biden.

“I think, as you know, there is ongoing litigation over this case, and as head of CFIUS, I regret there is very little substantive that I can say to you about this,” Yellen said. “Other than that, CFIUS did analyze the specifics, as it always does of this situation, and prepared a thorough analysis to go to the president.”

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