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BCA on why Trump’s immigration policies may not mean a tighter jobs market

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Investing.com — BCA Research challenged the assumption that Trump’s immigration policies will tighten the labor market and stoke inflation in a note to clients this week. 

An analyst at the firm said that while a smaller labor supply is a likely outcome, this will also reduce labor demand.

“Immigrants’ contribution to aggregate demand goes beyond their spending on goods and services,” the firm states.

“It also includes spending that takes place on their behalf. For example, while illegal immigrants are ineligible for most government welfare programs, they have access to emergency Medicaid services. They can also collect benefits on behalf of US-born children,” BCA adds.

They explain that the construction of multifamily housing to accommodate displaced housing demand can generate $40,000–$80,000 in additional construction per immigrant.

They also believe the pace of policy implementation will also matter. 

BCA acknowledges that a swift deportation campaign could indeed tighten the labor market, but they consider such an outcome unlikely. 

“The infrastructure to deport millions of workers simply does not exist,” and any slower-paced reduction in immigration growth would likely reduce labor demand more than supply.

BCA also argues that the historical relationship between immigration and interest rates supports this view. 

The U.S., with the highest immigration rates among G3 economies, has historically maintained the highest interest rates, whereas Japan, with minimal immigration, has seen the lowest rates. 

They believe a reduced immigration rate could, therefore, lead to a lower equilibrium interest rate in the U.S.

BCA concludes that the economic implications of Trump’s immigration policies are more complex than a simple tightening of the labor market, with broader impacts on demand and interest rates shaping the outcomes.

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Bank regulator gives BlackRock new deadline on bank stakes, Bloomberg reports

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(Reuters) – The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation gave a fresh deadline of Feb. 10 to BlackRock (NYSE:) to resolve an issue regarding oversight into the firm’s stock in banks, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday, citing three people with knowledge of the matter.

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Israel to use withheld Palestinian tax income to pay electric co debt

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By Steven Scheer

JERUSALEM (Reuters) -Israel plans to use tax revenue it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority to pay the PA’s nearly 2 billion ($544 million) debt to state-run Israel Electric Co (IEC), Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Sunday.

Israel collects tax on goods that pass through Israel into the occupied West Bank on behalf of the PA and transfers the revenue to Ramallah under a longstanding arrangement between the two sides.

Since the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, triggered the war in Gaza, Smotrich has withheld sums totalling 800 million shekels earmarked for administration expenses in Gaza.

Those frozen funds are held in Norway and, he said at Sunday’s cabinet meeting, would instead be used to pay debt owed to the IEC of 1.9 billion shekels.

“The procedure was implemented after several anti-Israeli actions and included Norway’s unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state,” Smotrich told cabinet ministers.

“The PA’s debt to IEC resulted in high loans and interest rates, as well as damage to IEC’s credit, which were ultimately rolled over to the citizens of Israel.”

The Palestinian Finance Ministry said it had agreed for Norway to release a portion of funds from an account held since last January with 1.5 billion shekels, calling money in the account “a punitive measure linked to the government’s financial support for Gaza”.

The ministry said as part of the deal, 767 million shekels of the Norwegian-held funds will pay Israeli fuel companies for weekly fuel purchases over the coming months. A similar amount will be used to settle electricity-related debts owed by Palestinian distribution companies to IEC.

Smotrich has been opposed to sending funds to the PA, which uses the money to pay public sector wages. He accuses the PA of supporting the Oct. 7 attack in Israel led by the Islamist movement Hamas, which controlled Gaza. The PA is currently paying 50-60% of salaries.

Israel also deducts funds equal to the total amount of so-called martyr payments, which the PA pays to families of militants and civilians killed or imprisoned by Israeli authorities.

The Palestinian finance ministry said 2.1 billion shekels remain withheld by Israel, bringing the total withheld funds to over 3.6 billion shekels as of 2024.

Israel, it said, began deducting an average of 275 million shekels monthly from its tax revenues in October 2023, equivalent to the government’s monthly allocations for Gaza.

“This has exacerbated the financial crisis, as the government continues to transfer these allocations directly to the accounts of public servants in Gaza,” the ministry said.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An Israeli power distribution plant is seen in Hebron in the Israeli-occupied West Bank January 22, 2020. REUTERS/Mussa Qawasma/File Photo

It added it was working with international partners to secure the release of these funds as soon as possible.

($1 = 3.6763 shekels)

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Romanian protesters demand cancelled presidential election should go ahead

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BUCHAREST (Reuters) – Tens of thousands of Romanians angered by the cancellation of a presidential election marched through Bucharest on Sunday to demand that the ballot should go ahead and that outgoing centrist President Klaus Iohannis should resign.

In a move that polarised voters, Romania’s top court voided the presidential election on Dec. 6, two days before the second round.

The cancellation came after state documents showed frontrunner Calin Georgescu, a critic of NATO, had benefited from an unfair social media campaign likely to have been orchestrated by Russia, accusations Moscow has denied.

The court ordered that the election be re-run in its entirety. The pro-European coalition government has yet to approve a calendar for the election, although party leaders agreed to hold the two rounds on May 4 and May 18.

Iohannis, whose term expired on Dec. 21, will stay on until his successor is elected.

On Sunday, tens of thousands of protesters, including left-wingers and those angered by the way the way the election was cancelled, joined the protest organised by the opposition hard-right Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR), Romania’s second-largest party.

“We ask for a return to democracy by resuming the election with the second round,” AUR leader George Simion told reporters.

Organizers said 100,000 people were at the protest, but riot police along the march estimated the numbers at around 20,000. Protesters waved flags and shouted “Freedom” and “Bring back the second round.”

“Our right to vote was broken,” said Bogdan Danila, a 43-year-old truck driver. “In addition, Iohannis was in power for ten years and did nothing for the people, while parties betrayed us, they are all corrupt. We want something else.”

Some protesters carried portraits of Georgescu or Christian Orthodox icons while street vendors sold flags and vuvuzelas.

“Authorities must say why they cancelled the election, we want to see the evidence,” said Cornelia, 57, an economist wrapped in a Romanian flag who declined to give her last name.

© Reuters. Protesters wave Romanian national flags during a demonstration organised by Romania's far-right party Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR), urging the government to re-run a presidential election, in Bucharest, Romania, January 12, 2025. REUTERS/Andreea Campeanu

“At this rate we won’t be voting anymore, they will impose a leader like in the old days.”

It remains unclear whether Georgescu, who opposes Romanian support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, will be allowed to run for president again.

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