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Dogged central banks rein in risk

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Even if investors sense light at the end of the tunnel, Western central banks are clearly not finished tightening credit just yet – certainly not in ‘inflation outlier’ Britain.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell threw more cold water on hopes for any reversal of the Fed’s interest rate rise campaign on Wednesday and kept pointing to another two hikes even as markets still assume one final quarter point move next month.

If the economy performs as now expected, two more rate rises is a ‘pretty good guess’ of what happens next, Powell told the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday. He reprises the testimony to the Senate later today.

Markets have been here before over the past year – continually underestimating the economy’s resilience and Fed’s trajectory.

But while futures markets still don’t quite believe the ‘two more’ signal, the Fed has had some success in talking them back from assuming any significant easing from there over the remainder of the year at least. Right now, pricing suggests a July hike will not be fully reversed until March.

And this view seems to tally better with the more dovish view from one of Powell’s colleagues.

“My baseline is that we should stay at this level for the rest of the year” and not cut rates until late 2024, Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic said in an interview on Yahoo Finance.

There was far less ambiguity in moves from Europe’s central banks on Thursday.

Following Wednesday’s shock news of an acceleration in UK ‘core’ inflation last month to 31-year highs, the Bank of England is set on Thursday to deliver another quarter-point rate rise to 4.75% – its 13th rate hike in a campaign than started in 2021.

Markets think there’s a 50-50 chance of a harsher 50 basis point move and now see the peak BoE ‘terminal’ rate as high as 6% – some 150bp higher than here.

The Swiss National Bank raised rates by 25bp earlier, as expected, but also left the door open for more tightening.

And Norway’s central bank surprised with an aggressive 50bp rise to a 15-year high of 3.75% and signaled another move in August.

In the emerging market world, Turkey was expected to more than double its 8.5% interest rate in a post-election macroeconomic policy reset.

All the hawkishness has blown some of the froth of this month’s stock market enthusiasm.

European bourses were down about 1% and U.S. stock futures were in the red again on Thursday, pointing to a fourth consecutive daily drop in the S&P500. Two-year U.S. Treasury yields were a fraction higher but the dollar touched its lowest in more than a month.

U.S. weekly jobless numbers, which have been rising in recent weeks, will be watched closely for further signs of a loosening of the tight U.S. labor market.

But in a sign that renewed faith in the bull market hasn’t been damaged yet, Wall St’s VIX ‘fear index’ of implied equity volatility registered its lowest close on Wednesday since January 2020.

In corporate news, Britain’s Ocado soared 17.4% to the top of the STOXX 600 after The Times reported talk of possible bid interest in the company.

Events to watch for later on Thursday:

* Bank of England policy decision; Turkey and Mexico central bank policy decisions

* U.S. weekly jobless claims, U.S. May existing home sales, Kansas City Federal Reserve June business survey, Chicago Fed May economic activity index, U.S. Q1 current account

* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual testimony to Senate Banking Committee

* Fed Board Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman speak; Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester and Richmond Fed chief Thomas Barkin speak

* U.S. Treasury auctions 5-year inflation-protected securities, 4-week bills

* U.S. Corporate earnings: Carmax, Accenture, Darden Restaurants.

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Consumers Energy Expanding Community Solar Program with 30-Acre Solar Project in Jackson County

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JACKSON, Mich., Sept. 19, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Consumers Energy plans to break ground next spring on Blackman Solar, a new 30-acre community solar array in its home Jackson County that will provide local clean energy to customers through its Solar Gardens program.

Consumers Energy this week received approval from Blackman Township for the community solar project, which is slated to start generating electricity by the end of 2025.

“Blackman Solar is a great example of a partnership with a community to develop a project that delivers reliable, clean energy as well as local tax and economic benefits,” said David Hicks. Consumers Energy’s vice president of renewable energy development. “We’re grateful for the reception we’ve received from Blackman Township leaders and are excited to continue developing solar projects like this on our path to a carbon-neutral electric grid.”

Blackman Solar will generate power for Consumers Energy’s Solar Gardens community solar program, in which customers choose to support new solar projects without having to own solar arrays.

The new community solar facility will be the fourth that Consumers Energy owns and operates, joining other Solar Gardens projects in Cadillac, at Western Michigan University and at Grand Valley State University. Blackman Solar will include nearly 5,000 solar panels and will generate up to 2.5 megawatts of renewable electricity for 2,500 future Solar Gardens customers.

Blackman Solar also will provide new capacity to expand Consumers Energy’s income-qualified Solar Gardens program MI Sunrise. MI Sunrise is an efficient, easy, cost-effective way for municipalities, nonprofits and tribal governments to deploy federal grant dollars, providing access to clean, reliable renewable energy and measurable financial benefits to offset energy bills.

“Blackman Solar will help meet increased demand for community solar and offers shared solar infrastructure, accessibility and inclusivity, as well as financial and environmental benefits for all customers,” Hicks said.

Consumers Energy is committed to Michigan’s clean energy future. The energy provider is closing its final three coal-burning units next summer, one of the nation’s most aggressive timetables. The company is developing solar projects as part of its Clean Energy Plan to be carbon-neutral by 2040.

Consumers Energy is Michigan’s largest energy provider, providing and/or electricity to 6.8 million of the state’s 10 million residents in all 68 Lower Peninsula counties. Consumers Energy’s Clean Energy Plan calls for eliminating coal as an energy source in 2025, achieving net-zero carbon emissions and meeting 90% of customers’ energy needs through clean sources, including wind and solar.

For more information about Consumers Energy, go to ConsumersEnergy.com.

Check out Consumers Energy on Social Media

Facebook (NASDAQ:): https://www.facebook.com/consumersenergymichigan
Twitter: https://twitter.com/consumersenergy
LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/consumersenergy
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/consumersenergy

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First Horizon Is Now the Official Bank of the Ragin’ Cajuns

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MEMPHIS, Tenn., Sept. 19, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — First Horizon (NYSE:) Corp. (NYSE: FHN or “First Horizon“) is proud to announce that First Horizon Bank is now the Official Bank of the  University of Louisiana at Lafayette  Ragin’ Cajuns.

This five-year agreement expands First Horizon’s long-term commitment to the University  and includes a Ragin’ Cajun Visa (NYSE:) Debit card, prominent in-venue signage, entertainment and hospitality opportunities along with participation in game day fan activations and experiences, including the new Cajun Village.

“This is an exciting time to expand our partnership with ULL and ULL athletics,” said Jerry Prejean, President of Acadiana for First Horizon. “With more than $2.5 million invested in recent years towards academic and athletic excellence, First Horizon is proud to deepen our relationship with the University and work together as two long-standing community leaders dedicated to making Acadiana a great place to call home.”

“As opportunities have grown for businesses to support Ragin’ Cajuns athletics, First Horizon Bank has been right there growing with us every step of the way,” adds Brian Bille, General Manager of LEARFIELD-based Ragin’ Cajuns Sports Properties. “Jerry’s commitment to our community has never wavered, and I’m excited to help First Horizon build affinity with our fans through this enhanced partnership, and encourage our fans to add the all-new Ragin’ Cajuns branded debit card to their wallet.”

About First Horizon  
First Horizon Corp. (NYSE: FHN), with $82.2 billion in assets as of June  30, 2024, is a leading regional financial services company, dedicated to helping our clients, communities and associates unlock their full potential with capital and counsel. Headquartered in Memphis, TN, the banking subsidiary First Horizon Bank operates in 12 states across the southern U.S. The Company and its subsidiaries offer commercial, private banking, consumer, small business, wealth and trust management, retail brokerage, capital markets, fixed income, and mortgage banking services. First Horizon has been recognized as one of the nation’s best employers by Fortune and Forbes magazines and a Top 10 Most Reputable U.S. Bank. More information is available at  www.FirstHorizon.com.

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Oil prices rise on easing demand worries after jumbo Fed rate cut

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Investing.com — Oil prices jumped Thursday, riding on a wave of risk-on sentiment as the Federal Reserve’s outsized interest rate cut on Wednesday eased worries that a slowing US economy would further dent crude demand.

At 2:06 p.m. ET (1906 GMT), rose 1.6% to $74.80 a barrel and rose 1.8% to $71.12 a barrel. 

Jobless claims rise by less than expected 

The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits rose by less than anticipated last week, with coming in at 219,000 in the week ended on Sept. 14, compared with an upwardly revised 231,000 in the prior week.

Economists had forecast a consensus figure of 230,000.

This figure was better than expected, and has allayed to a degree concerns over the health of the US economy, particularly after the Federal Reserve started its latest rate-cutting cycle on Wednesday, trimming interest rates for the first time since March 2020 by a hefty 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5%.

While lower rates usually bode well for economic activity, the Fed’s aggressive cut sparked some concerns over a potential slowdown in economic growth. 

While Fed Chair Jerome Powell helped soothe some of these concerns, he also said that the Fed had no intention of returning to an era of ultra-low interest rates, and that the central bank’s neutral rate was likely to be much higher than seen in the past.

His comments indicated that while interest rates will fall in the near-term, the Fed was likely to keep rates higher in the medium-to-long term.

US inventories fall, but product stockpiles up 

Government data released on Wednesday showed a bigger-than-expected, 1.63 million barrel draw in .

While the draw was much bigger than expectations for a draw of 0.2 mb, it was also accompanied by builds in and inventories. 

The builds in product inventories sparked increased concerns that U.S. fuel demand was cooling as the travel-heavy summer season wound to a close. 

Looking ahead, some expect further draws in domestic crude stocks as exports reaccelerate. 

“We look for a significant rebound in exports across crude and products this week. Among products, our preliminary expectations point to draws in gasoline (-1.5 MM BBL) and distillate (-3.7 MM BBL) with a build in jet (+0.5 MM BBL),” Macquarie said in a recent note.

Crude deficit could boost Brent 

Still, prices could be bolstered in the near-term by demand possibly outstripping supply in the fourth quarter, according to analysts at Citi.

A reported decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to delay the beginning of a tapering in voluntary output cuts, along with ongoing supply losses in Libya, is predicted to contribute to a oil market deficit of around 0.4 million barrels per day in the final three months of 2024, the Citi analysts said.

They added that such a trend could offer some temporary support to Brent “in the $70 to $75 per barrel range.”

Meanwhile, the benchmark could be further boosted by a potential rebound in recently tepid demand from top oil importer China, the analysts said.

But they flagged that they still anticipate “renewed price weakness” in 2025, with Brent on a path to $60 per barrel due to an impending surplus of one million barrels per day.

(Peter Nurse, Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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