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Fading risks, fear of missing out may fuel US stocks after near 20% rally

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Worries that have dogged U.S. stocks for months are fading, pushing some Wall Street firms to raise their outlooks for equities and beckoning investors who have remained on the sidelines. 

Signs of strength in the economy, relief over a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and an interest rate hiking cycle that may be nearing its end have heartened investors and driven the benchmark S&P 500 up nearly 20% from its October low – one definition of a bull market.

Further gains may hinge on whether investors who cut stock allocations to the bone over the last year return to the market. Cash on the sidelines is plentiful: U.S. money market fund assets hit a new record of $5.8 trillion last month, while cash levels among global fund managers remain high relative to history, according to the latest survey from BofA Global Research. 

And while computer-driven strategies have been piling into the market for months, according to Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn), positioning among discretionary investors — a cohort that includes everyone from active mutual funds to retail investors — is lighter than it has been 74% of the time since 2010, the bank’s data showed.

“There certainly seems to be a bit of a more optimistic ring to the market,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services. “Further strength might beget further strength because of the FOMO factor,” he added, using the popular acronym for “fear of missing out.” 

DISSIPATING RISKS

A stronger-than-expected U.S. economy is one reason for investor optimism, after many spent months girding for a widely expected recession.

Data on Friday showed U.S. job growth accelerated in May, even as the unemployment rate rose to a seven-month high – bolstering the case for those betting the Fed can contain inflation without badly damaging growth.

“Inflation has clearly subsided, and yet labor market strength has remained intact,” wrote BMO Capital Markets chief investment strategist Brian Belski in a recent note.

While a severe recession was his biggest worry at the start of the year, now “the anticipated recipe for disaster is simply not present.” BMO raised its year-end S&P 500 price target to 4,550 from 4,300. The index, which is up 11% year-to-date, closed at 4,267.52 on Wednesday. It is up 19.3% since Oct 12.

Other firms that have issued rosy targets in recent days include Evercore ISI, which now sees the S&P 500 at 4,450 at year end, up from its prior view of 4,150, and Stifel, which anticipates the index will reach 4,400 by the third quarter. BofA late last month raised its year-end target for the index to 4,300 from 4,000.

Another key risk dissipated last week when Congress passed a bill to suspend the debt ceiling, averting a potentially catastrophic U.S. default. “Moving past the debt ceiling and at least having some economic data that looks ok is actually enough to get some people interested,” said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. Lerner on Monday shifted his expected S&P 500 range for this year up to 3,800-4,500, from 3,400-4,300 previously, citing improving earnings trends among other factors. At the same time, investors have been cheered by signals that the Fed is unlikely to deliver many more rate increases that shook markets over the last year. Bets in futures markets showed investors projecting the Fed would leave rates unchanged at its June 13-14 monetary policy meeting and raise them only once more this year.

Of course, plenty of skeptics remain. John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica (NYSE:CMA) Wealth Management, said the S&P 500 could retest its October lows with “elevated interest rates and tighter credit standards weighing on economic activity for the remainder of the year.” Another worrisome signal is the fact that the S&P 500’s gain this year has been spurred by just a handful of mega cap stocks like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which have been fueled in part by excitement over advances in artificial intelligence, while large areas of the market have languished. For Hans Olsen, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Co, that’s an ominous sign. Olsen believes signals such as the inverted yield curve show recession risks remain “pretty high” and his firm is maintaining higher than typical cash levels. “We have one powerful rally inside a bear market that has yet to be fully resolved,” he said.

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Romanians vote in presidential election focused on high living costs, Ukraine war

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By Luiza Ilie

BUCHAREST (Reuters) -Romanians started voting on Sunday in the first round of a presidential election that may give hard-right politician George Simion a chance of winning, with voters focused on high living costs and the country’s support for Ukraine.

Opinion surveys show leftist Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, 56, leader of Romania’s largest party, the Social Democrats, will make it into the run-off vote on Dec. 8, with Simion, 38, of the Alliance for Uniting Romanians the likely runner-up.

About 3.7 million Romanians, or 20.7% of registered voters in the European Union and NATO state, had cast their ballots across the country by 1045 GMT, data showed. Voting ends at 1900 GMT with exit polls to follow immediately.

Voting by Romanians abroad, who can influence the result and where the hard right leader is popular, began on Friday.

Analysts expect Ciolacu to win the second round against Simion, appealing to moderates and touting his experience running Romania during a war next door.

But the prospect of a Ciolacu-Simion run-off vote could mobilise centre-right voters in favour of Elena Lasconi, leader of opposition Save Romania Union, ranked third in opinion surveys, analysts said.

Simion has cast the election as a choice between an entrenched political class beholden to foreign interests in Brussels and himself, an outsider who will defend Romania’s economy and sovereignty.

He opposes military aid to Ukraine and supports a peace plan as envisioned by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whom he admires, and would support a government that emulates that of Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.

“We want peace, the war must end so we stop being afraid,” 76-year-old Valentin Ion said after voting in Bucharest.

“Politicians must be more understanding and give money to the needy.”

Romania has the EU’s largest share of people at risk of poverty. Ciolacu’s coalition government of his Social Democrats (PSD) and centre-right Liberals has raised the minimum wage and increased pensions twice this year, but high budget spending has swollen deficits and kept inflation high.

“I am taking my parents and my children to go vote for PSD, it is the best party, Marcel Ciolacu gave us so much,” said Vasile Popa, 46.

Since Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022, Romania has enabled the export of millions of tons of grain through its Black Sea port of Constanta and provided military aid, including the donation of a Patriot air defence battery.

FAMILY VALUES

“The outcome is still very difficult to predict due to the high concentration of candidates and the splitting of the centre-right vote,” said Sergiu Miscoiu, a political science professor at Babes-Bolyai University.

Most candidates, he said, have campaigned on conservative messages such as protecting family values.

“Mainstream party candidates have a very catch-all message, on the one hand the nation, the army, religion and so on. On the other hand, we see a commitment to Europe, although it is seen more as a revenue source than an inspiration for values.”

© Reuters. A voter exits a voting booth, on the day of the first round of the presidential election in Bucharest, Romania, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Andreea Campeanu

Outgoing two-term president Klaus Iohannis, 65, had cemented Romania’s strong pro-Western stance but was accused of not doing enough to fight corruption.

Romania’s president, limited to two five-year terms, has a semi-executive role which includes heading the armed forces.

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Israeli army orders Gaza City suburb evacuated, spurring new wave of displacement

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By Nidal al-Mughrabi

CAIRO (Reuters) -The Israeli military issued new evacuation orders to residents in areas of an eastern Gaza City suburb, setting off a new wave of displacement on Sunday, and a Gaza hospital director was injured in an Israeli drone attack, Palestinian medics said.

The new orders for the Shejaia suburb posted by the Israeli army spokesperson on X on Saturday night were blamed on Palestinian militants firing rockets from that heavily built-up district in the north of the Gaza Strip.

“For your safety, you must evacuate immediately to the south,” the military’s post said. The rocket volley on Saturday was claimed by Hamas’ armed wing, which said it had targeted an Israeli army base over the border.

Footage circulated on social and Palestinian media, which Reuters could not immediately verify, showed residents leaving Shejaia on donkey carts and rickshaws, with others, including children carrying backpacks, walking.

Families living in the targeted areas began fleeing their homes after nightfall on Saturday and into Sunday’s early hours, residents and Palestinian media said – the latest in multiple waves of displacement since the war began 13 months ago.

In central Gaza, health officials said at least 10 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes on the urban camps of Al-Maghazi and Al-Bureij since Saturday night.

Adding to the miseries of Gaza’s 2.3 million people, most of whom have been repeatedly displaced, heavy winter rain flooded hundreds of tents across the enclave, spoiling food and sweeping away plastic and cloth sheeting that had protected them against the elements.

“We ran in the middle of the night, the rainwater flooded the tent, the food is gone, the kids screamed and I am afraid they will get sick,” Rami, 37, a Gaza City man displaced at a former soccer stadium, told Reuters via a messaging app.

The Palestinian Civil Emergency Service said thousands of displaced people were impacted by the seasonal flooding and demanded new tents and caravans from aid donors to shield them.

HOSPITAL DIRECTOR WOUNDED BY GUNFIRE

In north Gaza, where Israeli forces have been operating against regrouping Hamas militants since early last month, health officials said an Israeli drone dropped bombs on Kamal Adwan Hospital, injuring its director Hussam Abu Safiya.

“This will not stop us from completing our humanitarian mission and we will continue to do this job at any cost,” Abu Safiya said in a video statement circulated by the health ministry on Sunday.

“We are being targeted daily. They targeted me a while ago but this will not deter us…,” he said from his hospital bed.

Israeli forces say armed militants use civilian buildings including housing blocks, hospitals and schools for operational cover. Hamas denies this, accusing Israeli forces of indiscriminately targeting populated areas.

Kamal Adwan is one of three hospitals in north Gaza that are barely operational as the health ministry said the Israeli forces have detained and expelled medical staff and prevented emergency medical, food and fuel supplies from reaching them.

In the past few weeks, Israel said it had facilitated the delivery of medical and fuel supplies and the transfer of patients from north Gaza hospitals in collaboration with international agencies such as the World Health Organization.

Residents in three embattled north Gaza towns – Jabalia, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun – said Israeli forces had blown up hundreds of houses since renewing operations in an area that Israel said months ago had been cleared of militants.

Palestinians say Israel appears determined to depopulate the area permanently to create a buffer zone along the northern edge of Gaza, an accusation Israel denies.

© Reuters. Displaced Palestinian children stand near tents following rainfall, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Gaza City November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Dawoud Abu Alkas

Israel’s campaign in Gaza has killed more than 44,000 people, uprooted nearly the entire population at least once, according to Gaza officials, while reducing wide swathes of the narrow coastal territory to rubble.

The war erupted in response to a cross-border attack by Hamas-led militants on Oct. 7, 2023 in which gunmen killed around 1,200 people and took more than 250 hostages back to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies.

(Reporting and writing by Nidal al-Mughrabi; editing by Mark Heinrich)

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Green activists in S. Korea demand tough action on plastic waste at UN talks

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By Minwoo Park and Daewoung Kim

BUSAN, South Korea (Reuters) – Hundreds of environmental campaigners marched on Saturday in the South Korean city of Busan to demand stronger global commitments to fight plastic waste at U.N. talks in the city next week.

About a thousand people, including members of indigenous groups, young people and informal waste collectors, took part in the rally, the organiser said, with some carrying banners saying “Cut plastic production” and “Drastic plastic reduction now!”.

The activists marched around the Busan Exhibition and Convention Centre, where the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC-5) will take place from Monday to discuss a legally binding global agreement on plastic pollution.

Debate is expected to focus on whether the deal should seek to slash production, while major producers such as Saudi Arabia and China have said in previous rounds that it should prioritise less contentious strategies, such as waste management.

“We are here with Greenpeace and our allies in the Break Free from Plastic movement to represent the millions of people around the world that are demanding that world leaders address plastic pollution by reducing the amount of plastic that we produce in the first place,” said Graham Forbes, global plastic campaign lead at Greenpeace.

People from different countries and of all ages took part in Saturday’s rally and some wore elaborate, decorated hats made from discarded plastic items.

“It looks like the Earth, and a living creature, because I wanted to say our living creatures are being affected by plastic pollution,” said Lee Kyoung-ah, 52, who was wearing a hat made of abandoned plastic buoy.

Lee Min-sung, 26, said he also hoped to see changes in everyday consumer habits.

© Reuters. Climate activists march on a street to demand stronger global commitments to fight plastic waste at the upcoming fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC-5), in Busan, South Korea, November 23, 2024.   REUTERS/Minwoo Park

“I hope the culture of using ‘reusables’ becomes a cool, trendy movement, as that will reduce (waste) little by little,” said Lee, who brought his lunch from home in a glass container.

“I will pick up trash more often, whenever I have time, and throw away less to save the Earth,” said fourth-grader Kim Seo-yul, who flew from her home in Jeju Island to join the march.

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