Stock Markets
Fed policymakers see just one rate cut this year, 4 cuts in 2025
By Ann Saphir
(Reuters) – U.S. central bankers believe they’ll cut interest rates just once this year, two fewer than they thought in March as inflation approaches their 2% goal more slowly than they had expected.
That’s according to the median of new economic projections published on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve at the end of their June 11-12 meeting along with the widely expected decision to keep the policy rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.5% range.
By the end of 2025, policymakers anticipate a policy rate of 4.1%, according to the median of their projections, implying an additional four quarter-of-a-percentage-point cuts next year.
In March, the last time the Fed released quarterly projections, most U.S. central bankers anticipated at least three 25 basis point rate cuts in each of 2024 and 2025. That would have put the policy rate in the 3.75%-4% range by the end of next year.
A run of stronger-than-expected inflation earlier this year has forced U.S. rate-setters to recalibrate, writing down a slower start to rate cuts in the face of an economy proving more resilient than expected to the braking power of high borrowing costs.
It was not immediately clear how data released on Wednesday showing no rise in consumer prices in May from April may have factored into their forecasts.
The Fed has kept its target for the overnight bank-to-bank lending rate in its current range since last July in a bid to squeeze high inflation out of the economy without massive harm to the job market.
Four Fed policymakers feel the Fed should not cut rates at all this year, the fresh projections show. Three months ago just two thought so.
Meanwhile seven policymakers believe a single rate cut will be appropriate by year’s end, compared with eight who believe two rate cuts will be needed.
INFLATION RETHINK
Policymakers are now penciling in a fourth-quarter inflation rate of 2.6%, based on the year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures price index, which they target at 2%.
That’s slightly higher than the 2.4% they saw in March, according to the projections, even as they expect to keep borrowing costs higher for longer. PCE inflation registered 2.7% in each of the last two months.
The forecasts are not a consensus view, but rather a midpoint of the individual expectations of the Federal Reserve’s seven Washington-based governors and the 12 Fed bank presidents that is meant to offer some guidance on policymakers’ thinking.
Core PCE inflation – which strips out the cost of food and energy and which the Fed uses to gauge underlying price pressures – will be at 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, and at 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the median projections.
That compares with the March median projection of 2.6% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025.
The economic projections suggest Fed policymakers continue to expect a so-called soft landing, where the economy slows and inflation falls without a surge in joblessness.
Fed policymakers do see the unemployment rate, now at 4%, rising to finish 2025 at 4.2%, higher than the 4.1% they had forecast in March.
They left their forecasts for U.S. economic growth unchanged, at 2.1% this year, and 2.0% next year.
Fed policymakers also lifted their estimates of the longer-run neutral rate – a policy rate that neither slows nor stimulates a healthy economy – to 2.8%, from 2.6% in March and 2.5% last December. The increase may suggest that the Fed may ultimately not end up cutting rates as much as previously thought.
Stock Markets
SCWO Stock Hits 52-Week Low at $0.71 Amid Market Challenges
In a challenging market environment, shares of 374Water (SCWO) have touched a 52-week low, dipping to $0.71. The company, with a market capitalization of $104 million, maintains a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 3.81 and more cash than debt on its balance sheet, according to InvestingPro data. The company, which specializes in water treatment solutions, has seen its stock price struggle significantly over the past year, reflecting a broader trend in the sector. Investors have been cautious, as evidenced by the stock’s 1-year change, which shows a substantial decline of 52.96%. InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is currently in oversold territory, with 18 additional investment insights available to subscribers. This downturn highlights the volatility faced by environmental technology companies and raises concerns about future performance amidst uncertain market conditions. With a beta of -0.51, the stock typically moves opposite to market direction, potentially offering diversification benefits.
In other recent news, 374Water Inc. has secured approximately $12.2 million through a registered direct offering, involving the sale of common stock and warrants. The cleantech company expects the gross proceeds before fees and expenses to be around the $12.2 million mark, with D. Boral (OTC:) Capital LLC serving as the exclusive placement agent for the offering. The capital infusion is scheduled to be finalized by November 18, 2024, pending customary closing conditions.
In further developments, 374Water has initiated operations of its AirSCWO technology at the Iron Bridge Regional Water Reclamation Facility in Orlando. This marks a significant step in commercial biosolids processing, with the technology designed to efficiently process biosolids and PFAS contaminated wastes. The successful integration of the AirSCWO system into the Iron Bridge facility demonstrates the company’s capacity to destroy persistent organic pollutants, including PFAS.
The Florida Department of Environmental Protection supported the installation with a grant under the Bilateral Infrastructure Law emerging contaminant funding. Notably, CEO Chris Gannon highlighted the operational success in Orlando as crucial for showcasing the technology’s capacity to manage municipal, federal, and industrial organic waste streams at scale. The company anticipates additional commitments across the United States, including a deployment to Orange County Sanitation (CA) in 2025.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Stock Markets
Global shares and dollar firm in muted pre-Christmas trade
By Alden Bentley, Samuel Indyk and Rae Wee
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -Wall Street topped off a global share rally in thin trade on Thursday as markets prepared for early Christmas Eve closes, while the dollar was buoyed by firmer Treasury yields and speculation that the Federal Reserve would slow its easing in 2025.
The was 0.47% higher in late morning trade, the rose 0.73% and the rose 0.99%.
U.S. stock trading wraps up at 1:00 p.m. EDT/1800 GMT, and the bond market closes at 2:00 p.m. Most financial centers around the world are closed on Wednesday for Christmas. The U.S. reopens on Thursday, while many financial centers have a second day off.
“Meagre news and data flow should keep the focus on a more hawkish Fed,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe went up more than half a percent. The pan-European index rose 0.18%. 100 rose 0.19% and 40 rose 0.14%. German stocks were closed for the Christmas holiday.
In Asia, Chinese stocks rose after sources told Reuters that Beijing planned to issue a record amount of special treasury bonds next year as it ramps up fiscal stimulus to revive a faltering economy.
The blue-chip index and both ended 1.3% higher. Hong Kong’s advanced 1.1%.
The news came shortly after China’s finance ministry said authorities would ramp up fiscal support for consumption next year by raising pensions and medical insurance subsidies for residents, as well as expanding consumer goods trade-ins.
Still, investors remain cautious on the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy, particularly as it faces the threat of hefty tariffs from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
Elsewhere, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.37%.
FED FOCUS
Investors are taking direction from last week’s 25 basis point Fed interest rate cut, its signals on the strength of the economy and its slow progress bringing inflation down to its 2% target. Markets are now pricing in about 35 basis points of easing for 2025, implying one quarter-point rate cut and around a 40% chance of a second.
U.S. Treasury yields pared gains after the Treasury saw solid demand for a $70 billion sale of five-year notes, but remained higher on the day. The two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to changes in Fed rate expectations, was up 0.9 bp at 4.359%, while the benchmark 10-year yield rose 2.6 bp to 4.625%, reaching a seven-month high at 4.629%. [US/]
“Like markets, the Fed will need to consider U.S. policies on tariffs and immigration in its inflation and growth outlook. We believe the subtle slowing in the U.S. labor market will still be the Fed’s paramount concern,” said analysts at Citi Wealth.
“While always uncertain, our base case expectation for a 3.75% policy rate is unchanged. It’s a far cry from the 1.7% U.S. policy rate average of the past 20 years.”
The Fed’s cut was the third one this cycle, taking the Fed funds rate to 4.25%-4.5%.
Ahead of Trump’s return to the White House in January, global central banks have urged caution over their rate paths due to uncertainty on how his planned tariffs, lower taxes and immigration curbs might affect policy.
Data on Monday showed U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly weakened in December as the post-election euphoria fizzled and concerns about future business conditions emerged.
In currencies, the rose 0.14% hovering near a two-year high hit Monday, having climbed more than 2% in December so far.
The euro eased 0.15% to $1.0389, while the yen languished near last week’s five-month low, trading at 157.35 per dollar.
Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato on Tuesday reiterated Tokyo’s discomfort with excessive foreign exchange moves and put speculators on notice that authorities are ready to act to stabilise a faltering yen.
rose 0.13% to $2,616.26 an ounce, having risen about 27% this year, heading for its biggest yearly gain since 2010.
rose 1.56% to $70.32 a barrel and rose to $73.73 per barrel, up 1.51% on the day. [O/R]
Stock Markets
Wall Street advances in short Christmas Eve session on megacap gains
By David French
(Reuters) -Wall Street’s main indexes all ended higher on Tuesday, with gains in megacap and growth stocks bolstering benchmarks in a truncated Christmas Eve session.
Both the and the scored four straight sessions of gains. For the Dow, the run follows its 10-session skid earlier this month, its longest losing streak since 1974.
The benchmarks closed higher on the first day of a historically strong period called the “Santa Claus rally.” The on average has gained 1.3% in the last five days of December and first two days of January, according to data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac going back to 1969.
With megacap stocks having outsized influence on markets, their performance is often a key driver of indexes. When coupled with reduced trading volumes and few other catalysts, as many investors take time off for the holidays, this is even more pronounced.
All the so-called Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks climbed on Tuesday, led by Tesla (NASDAQ:).
The automaker’s rise helped push consumer discretionary shares higher, making them the top gaining sector in the S&P.
Elsewhere, chip manufacturers were also buoyant. Broadcom (NASDAQ:) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:) were up, while Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:) climbed a day after losses from losing a court case.
Growth names rose despite U.S. Treasury interest rates remaining elevated – the benchmark 10-year note yielded around 4.61% on Tuesday. Traditionally, higher debt costs crimp growth stocks.
However, the long-term themes around technology development, including advancements in artificial intelligence, overshadow any near-term moves in Treasuries, said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz (ETR:) Investment Management.
“This reinforces that view that the sector is going to remain strong, and should be well into the new year,” he said.
According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 64.93 points, or 1.09%, to end at 6,039.00 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 264.31 points, or 1.34%, to 20,029.19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 366.75 points, or 0.85%, to 43,273.70.
Stock markets shut at 1:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday and will be closed for Christmas on Wednesday.
After a stellar run to record highs following the November election, which sparked hopes of pro-business policies under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, Wall Street’s rally hit a bump this month as investors grappled with the prospect of higher interest rates in 2025.
The U.S. Federal Reserve eased borrowing costs for the third time this year last Wednesday, but signaled only two more 25-basis-point reductions next year, down from its September projection of four cuts, as policymakers weigh the possibility of Trump’s policies stoking inflation.
Allianz’s Ripley said the themes which had driven the market higher in the past two months remained intact, and actions by the Fed had not killed the rally.
“Heading into 2025, things are set up with good positioning,” he said, noting factors including economic outlook, consumption in the U.S. and the labor market.
Crypto-related stocks traded higher on Tuesday, including Microstrategy (NASDAQ:), Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:), and MARA Holdings, as the price of bitcoin advanced.
NeueHealth soared after the healthcare provider said New Enterprise Associates, its largest shareholder, and a group of existing investors will take the company private in a $1.3 billion deal.
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