Stock Markets
Hilton Grand Vacations stock downgraded to neutral by JPMorgan
JPMorgan has shifted its stance on Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE: NYSE:), moving from an Overweight to a Neutral rating, coupled with a significant price target reduction to $36 from the previous $55.
The adjustment follows Hilton Grand Vacations’ second-quarter 2024 performance, which led to lowered EBITDA forecasts for the full year.
The company’s newly revised EBITDA guidance, with a midpoint 10% lower than the earlier range of $1.20 billion to $1.26 billion, now stands at $1.075 billion to $1.135 billion.
The change mirrors the trends seen in the timeshare industry, as reflected in the recent report from Hilton’s peer, VAC. Hilton’s June results were notably affected by new owner hesitation, impacting the volume per guest (VPG) and an uptick in default and delinquency trends, which in turn increased the provision for loan losses.
JPMorgan also noted the internal challenges Hilton faced due to the restructuring of its sales and marketing team. For the third quarter of 2024, the bank has revised its EBITDA forecast for Hilton down by 16%, with contract sales expected to drop by 4% to $813 million.
The loan loss provision is anticipated to be 16% of owned contract sales, up from the previous 14%.
The firm’s EBITDA projections for 2024 and 2025 have been reduced by 12% each to $1.105 billion and $1.183 billion, respectively.
These downgrades reflect concerns over persisting negative trends in VPG and loan loss metrics, which are not expected to improve in the short term against the backdrop of weakening consumer spending, particularly on high-cost discretionary items that form the core of Hilton’s business model.
In addition, Hilton is facing unique challenges integrating its recent acquisition of Bluegreen Vacations (NYSE:). JPMorgan suggests that the market has now fully recognized the potential difficulties of this integration, which were previously underestimated. For investors interested in the timeshare sector, JPMorgan favors TNL, which maintains an Overweight rating.
The new year-end 2025 price target for Hilton is based on a 6.0x multiple of the estimated 2025 enterprise value to EBITDA, a reduction from the previous multiple, aligning with the valuation of Hilton’s timeshare peer VAC and close to TNL’s multiple.
Hilton’s current trading multiples are at 6.7x and 5.9x JPMorgan’s 2024 and 2025 EBITDA forecasts, with free cash flow yields of 15% and 19%, respectively.
Hilton Grand Vacations’ Q1 2024 performance boasted robust results, with contract sales reaching $631 million and an EBITDA of $270 million, largely due to the contribution from Bluegreen Vacations, which was acquired earlier this year.
However, Jefferies downgraded Hilton Grand Vacations’ rating from Buy to Hold, citing a slowdown in timeshare demand and changes in the company’s sales force structure as reasons for a less certain outlook.
Furthermore, Hilton Grand Vacations expanded its board of directors with the appointments of Christine Cahill and Gail Mandel. These appointments are expected to provide valuable insights and guidance to the company’s strategic direction.
InvestingPro Insights
Amidst the revised EBITDA guidance and the challenges highlighted by JPMorgan, Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE:HGV) is showing signs of resilience in certain areas. According to InvestingPro data, the company’s revenue growth over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 stands at 9.45%, indicating a robust top-line performance. Despite the recent price total return trends showing a decline, with a 1-week price total return of -10.53%, the company’s management has been actively engaging in share buybacks, as noted in one of the InvestingPro Tips, which could signal confidence in the company’s value proposition.
Furthermore, analysts remain optimistic about Hilton’s potential, predicting sales growth in the current year and profitability, suggesting that the underlying business might still have strong fundamentals. This is supported by the fact that Hilton’s liquid assets exceed its short-term obligations, providing a cushion in a challenging economic environment. With the stock trading near its 52-week low and a fair value estimation by analysts at $55, some investors might view the current prices as an attractive entry point.
InvestingPro also provides additional insights for investors looking to delve deeper into Hilton Grand Vacations’ financial health and market performance. Currently, there are six more InvestingPro Tips available on https://www.investing.com/pro/HGV, offering a more comprehensive analysis for those interested in the timeshare sector and considering HGV’s stock.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Stock Markets
Airbus keeps top spot with 766 jet deliveries in 2024
PARIS (Reuters) – Airbus delivered 766 airliners in 2024 and looked certain to maintain leadership of the jetmaking industry for a sixth year as arch-rival Boeing (NYSE:) recovers cautiously from a prolonged internal crisis, company data showed on Thursday.
The European planemaker fell fractionally short of a headline target of “around 770” jets but was expected to claim victory after leaving itself a margin for error as global supply chains remain hampered by parts and labour shortages.
The widely watched deliveries, confirming a provisional tally of 766 jets reported by Reuters, marked a slowdown in Airbus’ industrial recovery from the pandemic, with annual growth more than halving to 4% from 11% a year earlier.
Although Boeing has yet to report annual data, a cautious ramp-up and regulatory curbs following a mid-air blowout on an Alaska Airlines jet one year ago had already left an unbridgeable gap between Boeing and Airbus deliveries for 2024.
Analysts say the two planemakers continue to compete aggressively for new orders, however.
Airbus posted 878 gross orders or a net total of 826 after cancellations, down 61% from a record 2023. By end-November, Boeing had 370 net orders after cancellations.
Stock Markets
Massive Los Angeles fires rage on even as Hollywood blaze retreats
By Rollo Ross and Jackie Luna
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) -A pair of massive wildfires menacing Los Angeles from the east and west were still burning uncontained on Thursday, two days after they ignited, but firefighters managed to beat back another fire scorching the Hollywood Hills.
The Palisades fire between Santa Monica and Malibu on the city’s western flank and the Eaton (NYSE:) fire in the east near Pasadena are already the most destructive in Los Angeles history, burning nearly 28,000 acres so far – an area exceeding the size of Disney (NYSE:) World – and turning entire neighborhoods to ash.
At least five people have been killed, thousands of structures have been incinerated and nearly 180,000 people have been ordered to evacuate their homes, officials said. The death toll is likely to rise, Los Angeles Sheriff Robert Luna told a press conference on Thursday morning.
The Eaton fire’s growth has been significantly stopped, Los Angeles County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said, though it remains 0% contained. While still fierce, winds have slowed slightly since the 100-mile-per-hour gusts seen earlier in the week, permitting crucial aerial support for crews on the ground.
“We have a much better posture than we did on Tuesday and Wednesday,” said Marrone.
But officials warned that wind gusts of up to 60 miles per hour were forecast to persist throughout the day, and Kristin Crowley, Los Angeles City Fire Department Chief, said residents should be prepared to evacuate if ordered.
“It is safe to say that the Palisades fire is one of the most destructive natural disasters in the history of Los Angeles,” Crowley said.
Firefighters, assisted by helicopters dropping retardants and water, managed to make gains overnight in battling the Sunset Fire, which had forced mandatory evacuations in Hollywood and Hollywood Hills – including famous show-business locations such as the TCL Chinese Theatre and the Hollywood Walk of Fame – late on Wednesday.
The fire was in retreat, shrinking to about 43 acres, and firefighters were making forward progress, Crowley said. No buildings were lost in the area, a city fire department spokeswoman said, and the evacuation order was lifted.
It was one of at least five separate wildfires burning in Los Angeles County on Thursday morning as powerful winds spread flames across parched ground that has seen no rain for months. Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass described it as a “perfect storm” of dangerous conditions.
The two biggest conflagrations – the Palisades and Eaton fires – formed a pincer around the city so enormous that it was visible from space.
The homes of movie stars and celebrities were among those consumed by flames, which tore through some of the world’s most lavish real estate.
“We are heartbroken of course, but with the love of children and friends we will get through this,” said film star Billy Crystal and his wife Janice, announcing the Pacific Palisades home where they had lived since 1979 had been destroyed.
Media personality Paris Hilton said she was “heartbroken beyond words” after watching her beachfront house in Malibu “burn to the ground on live TV.”
The National Weather Service extended Red Flag warnings – issued when the risk for fire is high due to low humidity, high winds and warm temperatures – for Los Angeles and Ventura counties through 6 p.m. Friday.
Water shortages caused some hydrants to run dry in upscale Pacific Palisades, wedged between Malibu and Santa Monica, officials said on Wednesday.
U.S. President Joe Biden was briefed Thursday morning on the impact of the ongoing wildfires and will meet with top administration officials in the afternoon to discuss the federal response, the White House told reporters.
‘SOMETHING OUT OF A MOVIE’
Some residents ventured back to areas the fire had already swept through, where brick chimneys were left looming over charred waste and burnt-out vehicles. The remnants of a tattered and scorched American flag flapped from a pole.
“I had just come from my family home where my mother lives that was burned to a crisp … And then I came up to my home and – same thing. It’s completely dust,” said Oliver Allnatt, 36, wearing ski goggles and a filtered face mask as he took pictures of the ruins. “Basically just a chimney stack and a pile of ash. I mean, it’s something out of a movie.”
Thousands of Angelenos fleeing the flames sought refuge in temporary shelters. Foad Farid found refuge in the gym of the Westwood Recreation Center with nothing but his car and his phone. Neighbors dropped off blankets, clothing, water, pizza and pet food.
Jeff Harris arrived towing his Feisty Fish Poke food truck and began serving meals. “I’m just here to help,” he said.
Kevin Williams, at an evacuation center in Pasadena, said he knew it was time to run when gas canisters at his neighbors’ homes began exploding under the heat.
“The wind whipped up, the flames were up about 30 or 40 feet high, and you hear ‘pop, pop, pop.’ It sounded like a war zone.”
Aerial video by KTLA television showed block after block of smoldering homes in Pacific Palisades, the smoky grid occasionally punctuated by the orange blaze of another home still on fire.
The scale and spread of the blazes stretched exhausted firefighting crews beyond their capacity.
Firefighters from six other U.S. states were being rushed to California, while an additional 250 engine companies with 1,000 personnel were being moved from Northern California to Southern California, Los Angeles County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone told a press conference.
The fires struck at an especially vulnerable time for Southern California, which has not seen significant rainfall for months. Then came the powerful Santa Ana winds, bringing dry desert air from the east toward the coastal mountains, fanning wildfires while blowing over the hilltops and down through the canyons.
Stock Markets
Mexico’s annual inflation eases in December, supporting further rate cuts
By Natalia Siniawski
(Reuters) -Mexico’s headline inflation rate eased more than expected in December, fueling bets that the central bank will keep cutting its benchmark interest rate despite an uptick in the core consumer price index.
Annual headline inflation in Latin America’s second-largest economy hit 4.21% last month, INEGI data showed, below the 4.28% expected by economists in a Reuters poll and down from the November figure of 4.55%.
“Good news,” central bank board member Jonathan Heath wrote in a post on X, “since this is the first time (inflation) comes below the 4.26% logged in October 2023.”
Meanwhile the closely watched core consumer price index, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, accelerated to 3.65% in the 12 months through December from 3.58% the previous month. Economists expected it to come in at 3.62%.
Andres Abadia, chief Latin America economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the uptick in core inflation appears temporary and pointed to a drop in non-core inflation, helped by falling food prices due to favorable weather, as a key factor driving the headline decline.
Last month the Mexican central bank delivered a 25-basis-point cut to its benchmark interest rate, its fifth in 2024, bringing the rate down to 10.00%.
Minutes from the meeting, released later on Thursday, showed most board members were open to considering larger rate cuts going forward.
But December’s inflation data could diminish that prospect, analysts warned.
“The report supports another 25-basis-point rate cut in February but cautioned that sticky core services inflation and external risks, such as U.S. policy uncertainty, may lead Banxico to remain cautious in accelerating rate cuts,” said Kimberley Sperrfechter, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.
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