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Home Depot 2024 forecast in focus as investors pin hopes on sales recovery

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Home Depot 2024 forecast in focus as investors pin hopes on sales recovery
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A Home Depot store is seen in Los Angeles, California March 17, 2015. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo

By Deborah Mary Sophia

(Reuters) – Home Depot (NYSE:)’s annual forecast will be the prime focus for investors when the U.S. home improvement bellwether reports fourth-quarter results on Tuesday, as they scour for signs of a rebound in demand after a turbulent year.

“(2023 was) expected very much to be a transition year. All eyes are on 2024 and 2025, expecting a more normalized home improvement environment,” said Sarah Henry, managing director and portfolio manager at Logan Capital Management.

“It should be mostly smooth sailing going forward,” she said. Logan Capital holds shares in Home Depot.

Home Depot and smaller rival Lowe’s (NYSE:) are set to round out 2023 with their fifth consecutive decline in quarterly same-store sales, as tighter budgets and a shift in spending to services triggered a pause in home improvement projects.

That is expected to change as mortgage rates stabilize and the U.S. housing market shows signs of bottoming out.

Wall Street analysts have also become increasingly bullish on recovery in the home improvement space, especially in the back half of 2024, banking on factors including an expected improvement in discretionary spending and home sales.

THE CONTEXT

Promotions around holiday shopping events like Black Friday may have propped up sales in the fourth quarter, but weaker sales reports are largely expected at the end of what brokerage Truist called a “digestion” year for the industry, where companies lapped the tremendous growth seen during the pandemic.

“I don’t think the investors that have stuck with (Home Depot) thus far are going to be too freaked out by slowing sales (in the quarter), which have been widely expected at this point,” Logan Capital’s Henry said.

For 2024, Home Depot is expected to forecast roughly flat comparable sales, improving from an estimated 3.2% decline in 2023, according to LSEG data. Lowe’s is likely to forecast a 1.1% drop, compared with a projected 4.8% fall last year.

Both companies are expected to return to positive same-store sales in the second half of 2024.

“… we certainly do not see the macro climate getting worse from here, we’re more confident that we’ll see all those (improving macro) trends come together by (the second half),” Bernstein analysts said.

THE FUNDAMENTALS

** Home Depot is expected to report a 3.3% drop in fourth-quarter same-store sales, and a per-share profit of $2.77

** Lowe’s, which reports results on Tuesday, Feb. 27, is expected to have seen same-store sales decline about 7.1%; Earnings per share are projected to be $1.68

WALL STREET SENTIMENT

** Home Depot shares have risen about 4% so far this year, while Lowe’s has gained 2.6%, both underperforming a more than 5% increase in the benchmark

** Lowe’s stock jumped about 12% in 2023, with Home Depot adding roughly 10%

** Home Depot is rated “buy” among 36 brokerages covering the stock, LSEG data showed; At least six brokerages raised their price targets on the stock in the past month, taking median PT to $370 from $350 a month ago.

** Lowe’s has an average “buy” rating with a median PT of $235

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Hezbollah, Israel exchange heavy fire in ‘new phase’ of fighting

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By Timour Azhari and Miro Maman

BEIRUT/HAIFA, Israel (Reuters) -Hezbollah and Israel exchanged heavy fire into Sunday, as the Lebanese militant group sent rockets deep into northern Israeli territory after facing some of the most intense bombardment in almost a year of conflict.

Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem told mourners at the funeral of one of the group’s commanders killed last week in Beirut: “We have entered a new phase, the title of which is the open-ended battle of reckoning.”

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said operations would continue until it was safe for evacuated people on his side of the border to return – also setting the stage for a long conflict as Iran-backed Hezbollah has vowed to fight on until a ceasefire in the parallel Gaza war.

Israel’s Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi said in a televised statement the military was well-prepared for the next stages of fighting, which were coming in the next few days, but did not say what this would entail.

“We will do whatever it takes to removes threats against Israel,” Halevi said in a televised statement.

The conflict – which has escalated sharply in the past week – has raged since Hezbollah opened a second front against Israel, saying it was acting in support of Palestinians facing an Israeli offensive further south in Gaza.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members exploded. The attack was widely blamed on Israel, which has not confirmed or denied responsibility.

The following day, Israel launched its heaviest bombardment of Lebanon yet.

On Friday an Israeli airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburb targeted senior Hezbollah commanders in an attack that killed 45 people, according to the Lebanese health ministry. Hezbollah said 16 members of the group were among the dead, including senior leader Ibrahim Aqil and another commander, Ahmed Wahbi.

In a further intense bombardment on Saturday the Israeli military said it struck around 290 targets, including thousands of Hezbollah rocket launcher barrels.

“In recent days we have inflicted a series of blows on Hezbollah that it never imagined,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement. “If Hezbollah has not understood the message, I promise you, it will understand the message.”

SIRENS SOUND, SCHOOLS CLOSED

Speaking at Aqil’s funeral on Sunday, Hezbollah’s Qassem said Israel was seeking to paralyse the group, but would not succeed.

Qassem said Israel’s escalation of the conflict would lead to further displacement of its own citizens.

Israel has closed schools, restricted gatherings in the north and ordered hospitals there to move patients and staff to protected areas – many have secured or underground facilities designed to withstand rocket fire.

Air raid sirens sounded constantly in Israel on Sunday. About 150 rockets, cruise missiles and drones were fired at Israel overnight and into Sunday, most of which were intercepted by air defences, the military said.

Several buildings were struck, including a house badly damaged near the city of Haifa. Rescue teams treated wounded but there were no reports of deaths. Residents had been instructed to stay near bomb shelters and safe rooms.

Hezbollah said it hit a barracks and another Israeli position with squadrons of attack drones and also launched rockets at military-industrial facilities in an “initial response” to the device attacks last week.

An official in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a grouping of Iran-backed armed factions, said they launched cruise missile and explosive drone attacks at Israel at dawn on Sunday as part of “a new phase in our support front” with Lebanon.

“Escalation in Lebanon means escalation from Iraq,” the official said.

‘IMMINENT CATASTROPHE’

The U.N. special coordinator in Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasscharet, said in a post on X that “with the region on the brink of an imminent catastrophe, it cannot be overstated enough: there is NO military solution that will make either side safer”.

Lebanon’s top Christian cleric, Bechara Boutros al-Rai, said in his Sunday sermon that Lebanon was “deeply saddened” by the casualties among civilians and within Hezbollah in the attacks of the past week, in a rare condolence message by a Christian leader to the group.

“We direct an appeal to the (United Nations Security Council) to put an end to this war by all available means,” Rai said.

Tens of thousands of people have left their homes on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border since Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israel in October.

© Reuters. Smoke billows over southern Lebanon, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as pictured from Marjayoun, Lebanon, near the border with Israel, September 22, 2024. REUTERS/Karamallah Daher

The Gaza conflict was triggered on Oct. 7 when Hamas attacked Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

Israel’s subsequent assault on Gaza has killed more than 41,300 Palestinians, according to the local health ministry, and laid waste to the enclave.

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Sri Lankans elect Marxist-leaning Dissanayake as president to fix economy

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By Uditha Jayasinghe and Sudipto Ganguly

COLOMBO (Reuters) -Sri Lankans elected Marxist-leaning Anura Kumara Dissanayake as new president on Sunday, putting faith in his pledge to fight corruption and bolster a fragile economic recovery following the South Asian nation’s worst financial crisis in decades.

Dissanayake, 55, who does not possess political lineage like some of his rivals in the presidential election, led from start to finish during the counting of votes, knocking out incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa.

“We believe that we can turn this country around, we can build a stable government… and move forward. For me this is not a position, it is a responsibility,” Dissanayake told reporters after his victory which was confirmed after a second tally of votes.

The election was a referendum on Wickremesinghe, who led the heavily indebted nation’s fragile economic recovery from an economic meltdown but the austerity measures that were key to this recovery angered voters. He finished third with 17% of the votes.

“Mr. President, here I handover to you with much love, the dear child called Sri Lanka, whom we both love very dearly,” Wickremesinghe, 75, said in a statement conceding defeat.

Dissanayake polled 5.6 million or 42.3% of the votes, a massive boost to the 3% he managed in the last presidential election in 2019. Premadasa was second at 32.8%.

It was the first time in the Indian Ocean island’s history that the presidential race was decided by a second tally of votes after the top two candidates failed to win the mandatory 50% of votes to be declared winner.

Under the electoral system, voters cast three preferential votes for their chosen candidates. If no candidate wins 50% in the first count, a second tally determines the winner between the top two candidates, using the preferential votes cast.

About 75% of the 17 million eligible voters cast their ballots, according to the election commission.

This was the country’s first election since its economy buckled in 2022 under a severe foreign exchange shortage, leaving it unable to pay for imports of essentials including fuel, medicine and cooking gas. Protests forced then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee and later resign.

Dissanayake presented himself as the candidate of change for those reeling under austerity measures linked to a $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund bailout, promising to dissolve parliament within 45 days of taking office for a fresh mandate for his policies in general elections.

“The election result clearly shows the uprising that we witnessed in 2022 is not over,” said Pradeep Peiris, a political scientist at the University of Colombo.

“People have voted in line with those aspirations to have different political practices and political institutions. AKD (as Dissanayake is popularly known) reflects these aspirations and people have rallied around him.”

Dissanayake has worried investors with a manifesto pledging to slash taxes, which could impact IMF fiscal targets, and a $25 billion debt rework. But during campaigning, he took a more conciliatory approach, saying all changes would be undertaken in consultation with the IMF and that he was committed to ensuring repayment of debt.

GRINDING POVERTY FOR MILLIONS

Buttressed by the IMF deal, Sri Lanka’s economy has managed a tentative recovery. It is expected to grow this year for the first time in three years and inflation has moderated to 0.5% from a crisis peak of 70%.

But the continued high cost of living was a critical issue for many voters as millions remain mired in poverty and many pinned hopes of a better future on the next leader.

Dissanayake ran as a candidate for the National People’s Power alliance, which includes his Marxist-leaning Janatha Vimukthi Peremuna party.

Although JVP has just three seats in parliament, Dissanayake’s promises of tough anti-corruption measures and more policies to support the poor boosted his popularity.

© Reuters. Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the National People's Power (NPP) party, greets as he leaves the election commission after he claimed the victory in the presidential election, in Colombo, Sri Lanka, September 22, 2024. REUTERS/Dinuka Liyanawatte

He will have to ensure Sri Lanka sticks with the IMF programme until 2027 to get its economy on a stable growth path, reassure markets, repay debt, attract investors and help a quarter of its people out of poverty.

“Root cause for the downfall of this country is bad management. We have a strong feeling if we have a good manager to rule this country… we can be successful in future,” said Janak Dias, 55, a real estate businessmen.

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TSMC and Samsung discuss building middle eastern megafactories, WSJ reports

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: TSMC logo is seen at TSMC Museum of Innovation in Hsinchu, Taiwan May 29, 2024. REUTERS/Ann Wang/File Photo

(Reuters) – TSMC and Samsung Electronics (KS:) have discussed building huge factory complexes in the United Arab Emirates that could transform the chip industry in the coming years, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.

Potential chip projects in UAE could be worth more than $100 billion, the paper reported.

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