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Investors on guard for market stress as Fed signals more hikes ahead

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A hawkish message from the Federal Reserve amid a robust stock market rally is presenting investors with a conundrum: how to maintain exposure to rising equities while also guarding against the possible upheavals tighter monetary policy can bring.

The central bank left rates unchanged on Wednesday, as widely expected, but surprised some markets by signalling that borrowing costs will likely increase another half a percentage point by the end of this year as it reacts to a still-strong economy and a slower decline in inflation. Traders’ expectations for peak rates moved higher after the announcement.

Many investors believe an additional 50 basis points in rate increases – should the Fed deem them necessary – is by itself unlikely to stop a rally in U.S. stocks that has seen the S&P 500 rise 24% from last year’s lows. The central bank has already raised rates by 500 basis points since last year and is widely seen to be near the end of its rate hiking cycle.

But some are growing worried that tighter monetary policy is increasing the chances of ructions in the financial system similar to the crisis that saw several high profile bank collapses this year and sparked weeks of financial market volatility.

While the U.S. economy has been largely resilient – the banking system aside – investors have cast a wary eye on areas that may be particularly vulnerable as easy money dries up. Among the potential weak spots are commercial real estate, where a wave of defaults could have repercussions for banks and the broader economy, as well as other credit market sectors.

“The risk of pushing further here without giving things a little more time is that you run the risk of things breaking,” said Josh Emanuel, chief investment officer at investment management firm Wilshire. “I’m starting to get concerned that there’s a growing risk of a credit crunch.”

At the same time, Emanuel said it was “dangerous” to be underweight equities, which have rallied on dissipating recession fears and excitement over developments in artificial intelligence. As a result, he is staying away from assets that could be hit hard if market stress suddenly increases, such as small cap stocks.

The S&P 500 edged up 0.1% on Wednesday after shuffling between gains and losses. Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, inched higher. The S&P 500 is up 15% this year, while the Nasdaq has gained 30%.

James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Investment Management, has been adding to equity positions during the rally but plans to reverse that stance if the trend starts to change. He remains on guard for further stresses in the banking system, which he believes can be exacerbated by higher for longer rates and an inverted yield curve, making lending less profitable for banks.

“The longer the rate curve stays inverted the more pressure it puts on the banking system because it’s a very unprofitable place to be,” he said.

A similar sentiment came from DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, who told CNBC that “if the Fed follows the path that they’re talking about, … they are going to break something.”

He recommended increasing allocations to high-quality bonds while reducing stock holdings, noting that rising yields have made bonds cheaper and more attractive to income-seeking investors.

Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer of Penn Mutual Asset Management, believes a burgeoning stock market rally could loosen credit conditions, threatening to exacerbate consumer prices – an undesirable outcome for the inflation-fighting Fed.

“The appreciation in equities that we’ve seen recently, some of that enthusiasm may have the impact of having the Fed becoming more active with tightening if we continue,” he said.

Of course, there is little guarantee that higher rates will end up cracking something in the economy – or that such an event, if it were to occur, would deal a catastrophic blow to stocks. The S&P 500 is up 14% from a low reached after the banking crisis in March.

Josh Jamner, investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments, believes investors will soon start focusing more on fundamentals such as company earnings rather than macro concerns such as monetary policy and inflation.

“If things like AI are impacting earnings expectations, we think that will flow through in a more meaningful way because the macro backdrop is more steady,” he said.

“After having done 500 bps in a year… another 25 or 50 won’t be the key determinant for the economy,” he said.

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Constellation nears acquisition of Calpine in major power deal, Bloomberg News

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Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:) Corp. is on the verge of acquiring Calpine Corp., a move that could mark one of the most significant transactions in the power generation industry, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.

Baltimore-based Constellation is negotiating with Calpine’s private equity owners to finalize the terms of a deal that could place the value of Calpine at approximately $30 billion, including the assumption of debt, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

The potential acquisition, which could be announced within the next few weeks, is still subject to ongoing deliberations, report added.

Constellation’s interest in Calpine underscores the strategic moves within the power sector as companies seek to consolidate and expand their market presence.

While the exact terms of the deal are still being discussed, the acquisition’s completion would likely have considerable implications for both Constellation and the wider power generation sector.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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EU could lift some Syria sanctions quickly, France says

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By John Irish and Alexander Ratz

PARIS/BERLIN (Reuters) -European Union sanctions in Syria that obstruct the delivery of humanitarian aid and hinder the country’s recovery could be lifted swiftly, France’s foreign minister said Wednesday.

The United States on Monday issued a sanctions exemption for transactions with governing institutions in Syria for six months after the end of Bashar al-Assad’s rule to try to ease the flow of humanitarian assistance.

Speaking to France Inter radio, Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said the EU could take a similar decision soon without giving precise timing, while adding that lifting more political sanctions would depend on how Syria’s new leadership handled the transition.

“There are other (sanctions), which today hinder access to humanitarian aid, which hinder the recovery of the country. These could be lifted quickly,” said Barrot, who met Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa on Friday with Germany’s foreign minister.

“Finally, there are other sanctions, which we are discussing with our European partners, which could be lifted, but obviously depending on the pace at which our expectations for Syria regarding women and security are taken into account.”

Three European diplomats speaking on condition of anonymity said the EU would seek to agree to lift some sanctions by the time the bloc’s 27 foreign ministers meet in Brussels on Jan. 27.

Two of the diplomats said one aim was to facilitate financial transactions to allow funds to return to the country, ease air transport and lessen sanctions targeting the energy sector to improve power supplies. A third said Germany had put forward a position paper on the potential sanctions to be lifted.

“Due to the new situation, existing sanctions are under scrutiny. Germany has already pitched ideas on this issue,” German foreign ministry spokesperson Christian Wagner said on Wednesday.

“The focus lies on economic questions and return of funds of the Syrian diaspora,” he said.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: France's Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noel Barrot delivers a speech during the annual conference of French ambassadors at the International Conference Centre of the French Foreign Affairs ministry in Paris, France on January 6, 2025.  LUDOVIC MARIN/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

Syria suffers from severe power shortages, with state-supplied electricity available two or three hours per day in most areas. The caretaker government says it aims to provide electricity for up to eight hours per day within two months.

The U.S. waivers allow some energy transactions and personal remittances to Syria until July 7, but do not remove any sanctions.

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Yellen says CFIUS made “thorough analysis” of blocked US Steel-Nippon Steel merger

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that Nippon Steel’s blocked acquisition of U.S. Steel received a “thorough analysis” by an interagency national security review body that was sent to President Joe Biden.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City, U.S., October 17, 2024.  REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo

Yellen, in a live interview on CNBC, said she could not discuss specifics of the review of the merger blocked by Biden last week that is now the subject of a lawsuit that alleges that the review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) was not conducted in good faith and was prejudiced by Biden.

“I think, as you know, there is ongoing litigation over this case, and as head of CFIUS, I regret there is very little substantive that I can say to you about this,” Yellen said. “Other than that, CFIUS did analyze the specifics, as it always does of this situation, and prepared a thorough analysis to go to the president.”

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