Stock Markets
Markets in 2023: Soaring stocks and roaring bonds defy the doubters
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A screen displays the Dow Jones Industrial Average after the closing bell on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 15, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo
By Marc Jones
LONDON (Reuters) -This year might go down as one of the most unusual ever in financial markets – mainly because everything seems to have come good despite a lot of turbulence and many predictions turning out to be wrong.
Take equity markets. World stocks are nearly 20% higher despite the highest interest rates in decades and a mini crisis that wiped out one of Europe’s best known banks – Credit Suisse – along with a few smaller ones in the U.S.
In the bond markets, just a few months ago investors were expecting the Fed & Co to raise rates and leave them there while recessions rolled in. Now bond markets are looking to central banks to embark on a rate-cutting spree with inflation apparently beaten.
Other areas of the markets have experienced wild gyrations that are hard to explain. is up 150% on the year. Some of the most beaten up emerging market bonds have achieved triple-digit gains. The “magnificent seven” tech giants have seen a 99% surge in their shares over the year.
“If you’d told me at the start of year that we would have a U.S. regional banking crisis and Credit Suisse would cease to exist, then I’m not sure we would have guessed that we would see the year we’ve had for risk assets,” PIMCO’s CIO for Global Fixed Income, Andrew Balls, said.
The result has been 3.5% – 6.5% returns from top government bonds and a $10 trillion rally in world stocks, although that has been top heavy.
Meta (NASDAQ:) and Tesla (NASDAQ:) have soared 190% and 105%. The Nasdaq is on the cusp of its strongest year in two decades, while AI’s demand for semiconductor chips has catapulted Nvidia (NASDAQ:) 240% higher into the $1 trillion dollar club.
But it has been a very bumpy ride.
In March, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, a mid-sized U.S. lender, and the rescue of 167-year-old Credit Suisse triggered a slide in world shares where they lost all of the 10% gains made in January.
The scramble for safety pushed gold up 7% and U.S. and European government bond yields – the main drivers of global borrowing costs – recorded their biggest monthly drop since the 2008 financial crisis.
The steady climb in interest rates around the world then kept investors sweating through the summer, and in October Hamas’ attacks in Israel ratcheted up geopolitical tensions.
ROUND-TRIPPING
In the forex markets, the dollar is down a barely-noticeable 1% on the year. But Japan’s seeming reluctance to raise interest rates and China’s sputtering economy mean the yen and yuan are down 9% and 3.5% respectively.
As usual, the big moves have been in emerging markets.
Turkey’s efforts to tackle its economic problems following Tayyip Erdogan’s re-election have not been made any easier by another 35% dive in the lira.
Egypt has devalued its currency 20%, Nigeria has cut the naira by 45% and Argentina’s new president Javier Milei has just slashed the peso in half.
On the upside, Colombia and Mexico’s pesos are up 23% and 14%. Poland’s zloty is up 11%, followed by Brazil’s real which is up 8.5%. And of the major currencies, the safe-haven Swiss franc has been the strongest performer up 7.5%.
“Once the dollar starts to move down there could be a lot of fuel for that to continue,” DoubleLine’s Bill Campbell said, referring to a potential weakening of the dollar and also questioning what a potential return to power by Donald Trump might mean.
One of the most remarkable round trips is that the key will end the 2023 almost exactly where it started despite touching 5% in October.
BofA calculates that the battle against inflation has produced around 125 interest rate hikes globally this year versus 60 cuts.
If the previous 18 months are added the total is 510 hikes compared with just over 1,370 cuts since the global financial crash in 2008. And cuts will start to dominate next year with roughly 150 now expected compared with 40 hikes.
“Everyone expects a soft landing to happen, everyone expects bond yields to be lower and everyone expects Fed rate cuts,” BofA strategist Elyas Galou said, highlighting the group think the bank’s investor surveys showed.
The big discrepancy though is that the Fed has only cut rates when unemployment is as low as it now five times the last 90 years.
ELECTION FEVER
has surged 17% in dollar terms, or 27% in yen terms, setting it up for its best year in a decade.
Property woes have continued to drag on China, which has had a knock-on impact on oil, which is down almost 8% on the year. Gold has jumped 11.5%.
Other standouts include El Salvador bonds, which are now battling out of default and have returned 114% on the year.
U.S. sanctions relief has seen Venezuela’s bonds vault 150% and Pakistan and Sri Lanka’s have made 97% and 71%.
Next year won’t be quiet on the political front.
There are more than 50 major elections scheduled next year, including in the United States, Taiwan, India, Mexico, Russia and probably Britain. That means countries that contribute 80% of world market cap and 60% of global GDP will be voting.
Taiwan kicks it off with elections on January 13, followed just a few days later by the New Hampshire primary for the 2024 U.S. Presidential race.
Other dates for the diary include the Fed’s first rate cut, which is pencilled in for March 20, while OPEC and G7 meetings are scheduled for June.
“This is an era of boom and bust,” BofA Galou said. “We are not out of the woods.”
Investing.com — In a recent note, Bank of America outlined 14 key lessons from 2024 that investors should keep in mind as they head into 2025, warning that market momentum and stretched valuations could face headwinds in the year ahead.
While this year resembled the steady gains of 1996-97, rather than the bubble peaks of 1998-99, risks are mounting—from geopolitical tensions and rising debt to market fragility highlighted by the VIX.
BofA points to opportunities in Europe, China, and Japan but cautions that volatility, trade disputes, and macroeconomic uncertainty will shape the next leg of the market cycle.
Below are the 14 lessons that BofA highlighted.
1. 2024 was a strong year for markets, but it might only be the beginning.
2. The market’s performance in 2024 looked more like the steady gains of 1996-97 than the bubble peaks of 1998-99.
3. In a bubble environment, market leadership can persist for longer than investors can afford to stay underweight.
4. However, the combination of strong momentum and high valuations is already too stretched to avoid a potential bust.
5. The has shown that markets remain fragile, and a major shock may be overdue.
6. August 2024 suggests buying market dips and locking in volatility spikes; using smarter strategies like skewed delta positioning may be key for 2025.
7. Rising debt levels and persistent inflation mean bond vigilantes remain the most visible macroeconomic tail risk.
8. Market fragility, faster reactions, and elevated valuations suggest a repeat of the calm volatility seen in 2017 is unlikely.
9. A Trump election victory has reignited concerns around tariffs, with European companies favored by dollar strength potentially becoming the next trade targets.
10. European equities remain cheap and unloved—investors should be cautious about being caught short, as fewer crowded trades mean less volatility pain.
11. China’s outperformance over Japan in 2024 could continue if U.S. interest rates decline.
12. VIX options data indicates that positioning risks in the market have not gone away.
13. Eurozone bank dividends have outperformed the for much of the past year; investors may need to hedge against a different outcome in 2025.
14. The risk of sharp movements in the Japanese yen, driven by volatility, could cause instability for the in 2025.
Stock Markets
Class Action Lawsuit Reminder WOLF: Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP Reminds Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF) Investors – A Securities Fraud Class Action Lawsuit Has Been Filed
RADNOR, PA. – (NewMediaWire) – December 21, 2024 – The law firm of Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP (www.ktmc.com) informs investors that a securities class action lawsuit has been filed against Wolfspeed (NYSE:), Inc. (Wolfspeed) (NYSE: WOLF) on behalf of those who purchased or otherwise acquired Wolfspeed securities between August 16, 2023, and November 6, 2024, inclusive (the Class Period). The lead plaintiff deadline is January 17, 2025.
CONTACT KESSLER TOPAZ MELTZER & CHECK, LLP:
If you suffered Wolfspeed losses, you may CLICK HERE or go to: https://www.ktmc.com/new-cases/wolfspeed-inc?utm_source=PR&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=wolf&mktm=r
You can also contact attorney Jonathan Naji, Esq. by calling (484) 270-1453 or by email at info@ktmc.com .
DEFENDANTS ALLEGED MISCONDUCT:
The complaint alleges that, throughout the Class Period, Defendants made false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose that: (1) Wolfspeeds optimistic claims of potential growth of its Mohawk Valley fabrication facility and general demand for Wolfspeeds 200mm wafers in the electronic vehicle market fell short of reality; and (2) Wolfspeed had overstated demand for its key product and placed undue reliance on purported design wins while the Mohawk Valley facilitys growth had begun to taper before recognizing the $100 million revenue per quarter allegedly achievable with only 20% utilization of the fabrication, let alone the promised $2 billion revenue purportedly achievable by the facility.
Please CLICK HERE to view our video or copy and paste this link into your browser: https://youtu.be/zMLfnSRjg2Y
THE LEAD PLAINTIFF PROCESS:
Wolfspeed investors may, no later than January 17, 2025, seek to be appointed as a lead plaintiff representative of the class through Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP or other counsel, or may choose to do nothing and remain an absent class member. A lead plaintiff is a representative party who acts on behalf of all class members in directing the litigation. The lead plaintiff is usually the investor or small group of investors who have the largest financial interest and who are also adequate and typical of the proposed class of investors. The lead plaintiff selects counsel to represent the lead plaintiff and the class and these attorneys, if approved by the court, are lead or class counsel. Your ability to share in any recovery is not affected by the decision of whether or not to serve as a lead plaintiff.
Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP encourages Wolfspeed investors who have suffered significant losses to contact the firm directly to acquire more information.
ABOUT KESSLER TOPAZ MELTZER & CHECK, LLP:
Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP prosecutes class actions in state and federal courts throughout the country and around the world. The firm has developed a global reputation for excellence and has recovered billions of dollars for victims of fraud and other corporate misconduct. All of our work is driven by a common goal: to protect investors, consumers, employees and others from fraud, abuse, misconduct and negligence by businesses and fiduciaries. The complaints in this action were not filed by Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP. For more information about Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP please visit www.ktmc.com .
CONTACT:
Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP
Jonathan Naji, Esq.
(484) 270-1453
280 King of Prussia Road
Radnor, PA 19087
info@ktmc.com
May be considered attorney advertising in certain jurisdictions. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
View the original release on www.newmediawire.com
Copyright 2024 JCN Newswire . All rights reserved.
By Savyata Mishra, Gursimran Mehar and Renee Hickman
(Reuters) -Some members of the Starbucks (NASDAQ:) workers’ union that represents more than 10,000 baristas walked off their jobs in multiple U.S. cities on Friday, citing unresolved issues over wages, staffing and schedules.
The five-day strike, which began on Friday and closed Starbucks cafes in Los Angeles, Chicago and Seattle, will expand to Columbus (WA:), Denver, and Pittsburgh through Saturday, the union said in a statement.
This is the latest in a series of labor actions that have picked up pace across service industries following a period when workers at manufacturers in the automotive, aerospace and rail industries won substantial concessions from employers.
At Starbucks, the Workers United union, which represents employees at 525 stores across the U.S., said late on Thursday that walkouts would escalate daily, and could reach “hundreds of stores” nationwide by Christmas Eve.
“It’s estimated that 10 stores out of 10,000 company-operated stores did not open today,” Starbucks said, adding that there was no significant impact to store operations on Friday.
Around 20 people joined a picket line at a Starbucks location on Chicago’s north side, buffeted by snow and wind, but cheering in response to the honking horns of passing cars.
A few confused customers tried to walk into the closed store before strikers began chanting, but union member Shep Searl said the reaction had been mostly positive.
Searl said 100% of the unionized workers at the Starbucks location in Chicago’s Edgewater neighborhood were participating in the strike, and according to the workers, they have been subject to numerous unfair labor practices including write-ups, “captive-audience” meetings and firings.
The union member said they made about $21 an hour and added, “that would have been a great wage in 2013”.
It is an inadequate wage, the baristas said, given inflation and the high cost of living in a large city, especially since they rarely get 40-hour work weeks.
WORKERS SNUB OFFER
Negotiations between the company and Workers United began in April, based on an established framework agreed upon in February, which could also help resolve numerous pending legal disputes.
The company said on Thursday it has held more than nine bargaining sessions with the union since April, and reached more than 30 agreements on “hundreds of topics”, including economic issues.
The Seattle-headquartered firm said it is ready to continue negotiations, claiming the union delegates prematurely ended the bargaining session this week.
The union, however, said in a Facebook (NASDAQ:) post on Friday that Starbucks had yet to present a serious economic proposal with less than two weeks remaining until the year-end contract deadline.
The workers’ group also snubbed an offer of no immediate wage hike and a guarantee of a 1.5% increase in future years.
“Workers United proposals call for an immediate increase in the minimum wage of hourly partners by 64%, and by 77% over the life of a three-year contract. This is not sustainable,” Starbucks said on Friday.
In response to Starbucks’ statement on the proposals, Michelle Eisen, a Starbucks barista and bargaining delegate, said, “Starbucks’ characterization of our proposals is misleading and they know it. We are ready to finalize a framework that includes new investments in baristas in the first year of contracts”.
Separately, the baristas’ union said on Friday that it filed a new labor practice charge against the coffee house, alleging Starbucks “refused to bargain and engaged in bad faith bargaining” over economic issues.
Hundreds of complaints have been filed with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), accusing Starbucks of unlawful labor practices such as firing union supporters and closing stores during labor campaigns. Starbucks has denied wrongdoing and said it respects the right of workers to choose whether to unionize.
WORKING ON A TURNAROUND
Last month, the NLRB said that Starbucks broke the law by telling workers at its flagship Seattle cafe that they would lose benefits if they joined a union.
“It’s (the strike) taking place during one of the busiest times of the year for Starbucks, which could magnify its impact while bringing unwanted public scrutiny into the company’s labor practices,” Emarketer analyst Rachel Wolff said.
The coffee chain is working on a turnaround under its newly appointed top boss, Brian Niccol, who aims to restore “coffee house culture” by overhauling cafes and simplifying its menu among other measures.
“Given how much Starbucks is already struggling to win over customers, it can ill afford any negative publicity – or impact to sales – that the strike could bring,” Wolff said.
The Starbucks workers’ strike comes in the same week as Amazon.com (NASDAQ:) workers at seven U.S. facilities walking off the job on Thursday, during the holiday shopping rush.
There were 33 work stoppages in 2023, the most since 2000, though far lower than in past decades, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed.
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