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Stocks peak, Treasuries flail as US rate cut hopes wither

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By Naomi Rovnick and Koh Gui Qing

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -Global stocks flirted with an all-time high on Friday even after surprisingly strong U.S. monthly jobs data dimmed hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon follow euro zone and Canadian interest rate cuts, causing Treasury yields to shoot higher.

The world’s largest economy added 272,000 jobs last month, beating the 185,000 hires predicted by economists and derailing an investor consensus that the jobs market had slackened just enough to push consumer prices lower.

“This is a strong report, and it suggests that there are no signs of any cracks in the labor market,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

“It’s a plus for the economy and a plus for corporate earnings, but it’s a negative in terms of the prospects of a rate cut perhaps as early as September.”

Diminished hopes for a near-term Fed move initially weighed on stocks, but equity markets made a modest comeback by early afternoon. The MSCI’s world share index was flat, after touching a record high of 797.48 points.

Wall Street also recouped earlier losses. By 1732 GMT, the rose 0.3% after hitting an all-time high of 5,375.08 points. The edged up 0.2%, and the also gained 0.2%.

The benchmark , a benchmark for borrowing rates globally, leapt over 14 basis points after the jobs report, to 4.4256%, its biggest one-day jump in about two months.

The two-year yield, which tracks interest rate expectations, climbed 15 basis points to 4.8700%, following six straight days of declines until Thursday. Bond yields rise as prices fall.

Money market pricing just after the payrolls data implied traders saw the Fed only starting to cut rates from their 23-year high of 5.25-5.5% by November. U.S. interest rate futures also lowered the chances of the Fed’s cutting rates by 25 basis points in September to 56%, down from around 70% on Thursday, according to LSEG’s Fedwatch.

A September move had been strongly expected earlier in the day, particularly after the European Central Bank made a widely expected decision to cut its deposit rate from a record 4% to 3.75% on Thursday.

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday became the first G7 nation to trim its key policy rate, following cuts by Sweden’s Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank.

Following the jobs report, euro zone rate pricing also went into reverse, with traders now pricing 55 bps of cuts in the region this year, down from 58 bps before the data.

Europe’s share index, which has gained almost 10% year-to-date, lost 0.2%.

Euro zone bonds were also lackluster on Friday, with Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rising 8 bps to 2.618%.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Bull and bear symbols for successful and bad trading are seen in front of the German stock exchange (Deutsche Boerse) in Frankfurt, Germany, February 12, 2019.  REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo

Elsewhere, the dollar rose 0.8% against a basket of currencies, having been set for a weekly loss before the jobs data. The euro dropped 0.8% to $1.0801 a day after a slight gain.

futures lost 0.3% to $79.65 per barrel. The stronger dollar weighed on , which dropped 2.9% to $2,307.43 an ounce.

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