UBS: market still does not account for risk of recession 2022
According to UBS director Michael Zinn, the stock market is not yet fully appreciating the risk of a recession 2022, and has not yet bottomed out, writes Business Insider.
“The market probably hasn’t fully considered the possibility of a harder landing and US risk of recession,” Zinn said.
He also pointed to recent corporate earnings reports, as some companies are reporting disappointing numbers and expect new headwinds to growth next year. So far, the current U.S. 100 is down on the news backdrop.
The lag from analysts’ forecasts will continue as long as Fed policy remains hawkish, he said, which depends on more positive data on inflation and employment. At the same time, many analysts point out that in 2023 the overall economic situation in the world will worsen.
Other commentators have also warned of a recession as the Fed continues to struggle with high inflation and continually raises its interest rate. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) predicted a 20% collapse in stocks next year as the recession engulfs the American economy.
Next year’s recession will be followed by a sharp interest rate hike to lower inflation.
Zinn also stated that the market is only “halfway to the bottom,” which means the Fed will not consider a rate cut until it sees at least 4 “good months” of inflation and employment data.
Earlier, we reported that Bloomberg predicted India to lead the stock markets in 2022.
Collapsed SVB Bank to be sold off piecemeal
In the U.S. could not find a buyer for the Silicon Valley Bank, which survived bankruptcy, and therefore regulators have decided to sell the credit institution in parts. It was reported by Bloomberg. Note the volatility throughout the stock market, including the S&P 500.
According to the agency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is going to split the bank into two parts. It is reported that by Friday, bids will be submitted for an artificially created by the regulator “transitional bank”.
The Economist previously reported that the rapid collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the series of problems that followed revealed undervalued risk throughout the banking system. Because of this it is time for a global overhaul of the entire banking system.
On March 17, Bloomberg agency based on analysis of securities quotations of 166 credit organizations all over the world, reported that the best stock exchange results on the global stock market after failure of American investment bank SVB and Swiss Credit Suisse were shown by shares of Chinese credit organizations. The Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank and other major banks of China are concerned.
Earlier we reported that UBS had acquired Credit Suisse for $3.2 billion.
UBS acquires Credit Suisse – merger agreement ready
UBS acquires Credit Suisse. The Swiss financial holding company will buy out its competitor Credit Suisse. The press-release says that under the terms of the deal UBS will pay with its shares at the scheme of one UBS share for 22.48 Credit Suisse shares. That ratio assumes that the entire bank was valued at 3 billion francs ($3.2 billion) in the transaction, the statement said.
That’s less than half of the bank’s market value at Friday’s close of 7.4 billion francs, or nearly $8 billion.
The merger, which is expected to be completed this year, will be done without shareholder approval procedures for both banks, the bank said. The deal assumes substantial government support. The government agreed to give UBS a government guarantee to cover potential losses of 9 billion francs ($ 9.7 billion) under a number of conditions. The National Bank, in turn, offered UBS 100 billion francs ($108 billion) to make up its liquidity.
UBS announced the takeover of Credit Suisse
Merger talks began this week amid a series of problems. Last month, the bank reported its biggest annual loss since the global financial crisis and said its customers withdrew more than 110 billion Swiss francs from their accounts in the fourth quarter.
The problems worsened in March, with the bank admitting “significant deficiencies” in its financial disclosure for the previous two years on March 14, and its largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank, saying it was not ready to inject new capital into the bank. The stock has since fallen to a record low. The bank announced plans to borrow $54 billion from the Central Bank “to proactively strengthen its liquidity,” but that didn’t remedy the situation. Deposit outflows at the end of last week exceeded 10 billion francs a day.
The takeover of rival UBS was pushed by the authorities. UBS offered to buy the troubled bank for $1 billion, but Credit Suisse rejected the offer, as it considered that the amount offered was too small, and such a deal would be harmful to shareholders and employees.
After that, the authorities are considering a full nationalization or transfer to the state ownership of a significant block of shares. UBS later agreed to pay more than $2 billion.
Note the volatility throughout the stock market, including the S&P 500.
Earlier we reported that Swiss regulators said the Central Bank is ready to intervene in the situation with Credit Suisse.
Swiss regulators said the Central Bank is ready to intervene in the situation with Credit Suisse
The financial authorities of Switzerland said that the Central Bank (Swiss National Bank, SNB) will provide additional liquidity to Credit Suisse in case of need, reports CNBC. Credit Suisse meets all capital and liquidity requirements for systemically important banks, the SNB and the Swiss Financial Markets Supervisory Authority said in a joint statement.
The country’s banking regulators say Credit Suisse “meets the capital and liquidity requirements for systemically important banks. If the situation changes, the SNB is ready to step in and provide additional liquidity to the bank. The country’s financial authorities said there was “no direct risk of contagion” for Swiss banks after the bankruptcy of two U.S. banks a week earlier. Credit Suisse said the same day it welcomed a “statement of support” from regulators.
Regulators stated after Credit Suisse’s Swiss-listed shares plunged more than 20 percent on Wednesday, March 15. Credit Suisse’s U.S. depositary receipts were down 14% in the session after the statement from regulators. while European exchanges and trading in the DAX Index, UK 100 and other indices had already closed by this time. The value of stocks of Swiss bank Credit Suisse plummeted during the trading day by almost a third, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The price fell to 1.56 francs ($1.7), 30.3 percent less than it was at the close of trading on March 14. The securities later recovered their losses slightly and cost 1.61 francs ($1.74), 28.3% (0.63 francs) less than the closing price the day before. Credit Suisse papers fell to a record low during trading, Bloomberg noted. Trading papers suspended for a time because of too rapid collapse.
Earlier we reported that Moody’s explained why the banking crisis in the U.S. will not affect Asia.
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