Stock Markets
While pullback risks are growing, RBC is bullish on stocks going into 2024
© Reuters. While pullback risks are growing, RBC is bullish on stocks going into 2024
The faces an increased risk of a short-term pullback, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets.
Bullish sentiment and positioning, coupled with peak US valuations relative to Europe, contribute to this risk.
Analysts note that a net bullishness indicator using a four-week average is over one standard deviation above its long-term average, historically resulting in a flat S&P 500 over the next three months. Asset manager positioning in S&P 500 futures is also nearing recent peaks.
“While we remain constructive on the year ahead, several charts that we track regularly in Pulse are starting to suggest that the rally in the S&P 500 is due for a pause,” the analysts said in a note.
US valuations, reaching peaks relative to Europe, coincide with growing concerns among non-US investors about the 2024 presidential elections, potentially prompting profit-taking in US stocks early next year.
Inflows to US equities may be stalling, while outflows from growth funds contribute to weakness.
Despite potential short-term challenges, RBC sees the S&P 500 ending the year at a reasonable level.
“What this model is telling us about 2024 has been a big topic of conversation in our recent investor meetings. Currently, it’s calling for a trailing P/E at YE 2024 of 23x, or around 5,300 when used in tandem with our 2024 EPS forecast of $232,” the analysts added.
“For now, the key things to know are that it is telling us that the stock market is likely to end 2023 at a valuation level that is reasonable in the context of the moderation in inflation that we’ve seen, and that we should look additional gains in 2024 as inflation continues to ease and interest rates come down a bit.”
(Reuters) -Private equity firm Insight Partners is on the brink of closing a new $10 billion-plus fund, roughly half the amount originally targeted, the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing five people with knowledge of its plans.
Insight will not formally close its 13th fund until early next year, the report said, adding that the final figure may be closer to $12 billion.
Insight Partners declined to comment on the report.
The report said Insight is using a private equity-style structure to sell more than $1 billion worth of stakes in start-ups and to free up cash to return to investors.
One of the start-ups is Israeli cybersecurity firm Wiz, which had called off a $23 billion deal with Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:) in July, the report said.
New York-based Insight raised $20 billion for its 12th flagship fund in 2022, aiming to ramp up investments in software and technology companies.
JERUSALEM (Reuters) -Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would inflict a “heavy price” on the Iran-aligned Houthis who control northern Yemen, after they reached central Israel with a missile on Sunday for the first time.
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said the group struck with a new hypersonic ballistic missile that travelled 2,040 km (1270 miles) in just 11 1/2 minutes.
After initially saying the missile had fallen in an open area, Israel’s military later said it had probably fragmented in the air, and that pieces of interceptors had landed in fields and near a railway station. Nobody was reported hurt.
Air raid sirens had sounded in Tel Aviv and across central Israel moments before the impact at around 6:35 a.m. local time (0335 GMT), sending residents running for shelter. Loud booms were heard.
Reuters saw smoke billowing in an open field in central Israel.
At a weekly cabinet meeting, Netanyahu said the Houthis should have known that Israel would exact a “heavy price” for attacks on Israel.
“Whoever needs a reminder of that is invited to visit the Hodeida port,” Netanyahu said, referring to an Israeli retaliatory air strike against Yemen in July for a Houthi drone that hit Tel Aviv.
The Houthis have fired missiles and drones at Israel repeatedly in what they say is solidarity with the Palestinians, since the Gaza war began with a Hamas attack on Israel in October.
The drone that hit Tel Aviv for the first time in July killed a man and wounded four people. Israeli air strikes in response on Houthi military targets near the port of Hodeidah killed six and wounded 80.
Previously, Houthi missiles have not penetrated deep into Israeli air space, with the only one reported to have hit Israeli territory falling in an open area near the Red Sea port of Eilat in March.
Israel should expect more strikes in the future “as we approach the first anniversary of the Oct. 7 operation, including responding to its aggression on the city of Hodeidah,” Sarea said.
The deputy head of the Houthi’s media office, Nasruddin Amer, said in a post on X on Sunday that the missile had reached Israel after “20 missiles failed to intercept” it, describing it as the “beginning”.
The Israeli military also said that 40 projectiles were fired towards Israel from Lebanon on Sunday and were either intercepted or landed in open areas.
“No injuries were reported,” the military said.
PARIS (Reuters) – Eight people have died trying to cross the Channel from France to England, French authorities said on Sunday, confirming earlier media reports.
This latest incident follows the deaths of 12 people earlier this month when their boat capsized in the Channel on its way to Britain and highlights the pressure on the British and French governments to find ways to tackle the boat crossings.
Jacques Billant, the Prefect of the Pas-de-Calais region, said that rescue crews were alerted that a boat with 59 people onboard was in difficulty in waters off the coast of Ambleteuse in the Pas-de-Calais area.
“A new drama took place around one in the morning and we deplore the death of eight people,” he told a news conference, adding that the other 51 onboard were now in the care of rescue and medical crews.
The dead were men from Eritrea, Sudan, Syria, Egypt, Iran and Afghanistan, he added.
The Channel is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes and currents are strong, which makes crossing on small boats dangerous.
The latest incident brings to 46 the number of people who have died trying to cross the Channel from France since the start of the year, Billant said.
On September 14 alone there were eight attempts to cross the Channel from France and some 200 migrants were rescued, he said.
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