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Oil Traders in Panic After Russia Order to Halt CPC Terminal

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(Bloomberg) — A Russian court order to halt oil loadings from a port in the Black Sea has unnerved European crude traders already reeling from the tightest regional market in years, sending prices for competing barrels spiraling.

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On Tuesday, a Russian court ordered a 30-day stoppage of the CPC Terminal, through which more than 30 million barrels of mostly Kazakh crude gets exported each month. It said the halt is because the facility violated its oil-spill prevention plan.

If it comes to pass, the stoppage would be another blow to a European oil market that’s lost large amounts of supply to unrest in Libya, and seen sharply reduced shipments from elsewhere. For now the terminal is running as normal.

Azeri Light oil, popular among European refiners because of its low sulfur levels, jumped to a premium of more than $10 a barrel to benchmark Dated Brent, the highest level several traders were able to remember. Further afield, Nigeria’s Forcados crude was offered at a premium of $14 a barrel.

Bailiff Requirement

The CPC stoppage is meant to begin after a bailiff arrives. That hasn’t happened yet, and the terminal operator, Caspian Pipeline Consortium, has asked the higher regional court to delay the order suspending operations, arguing a sudden stop could cause permanent damage.

European refiners are now mostly keeping away from Russia’s Urals crude following the invasion into Ukraine, putting a greater emphasis on other sources of supply.

But Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Libya, the North Sea and West Africa — all major suppliers to Europe — already saw their combined monthly exports decline by a combined 1.04 million barrels a day in June, tanker tracking compiled by Bloomberg show.

Russia Targets Europe With Weaponized Kazakh Crude: Oil Strategy

Exports from Libya have fallen to about a third of last year’s level amid the worsening political crisis. Should the court order go ahead, it would strip Europe of at least another 1 million barrels a day.

Several oil traders in the region expressed concerns over the possible shutdown, saying spot prices could go up even further because of an urgent need for alternative grades. Some refineries that already bought CPC cargoes for August loading said they were worried whether their shipments will now be delayed.

CPC loadings are planned at about 1.24 million barrels a day in July, slightly less than 1.4 million to 1.5 million barrels a day in the first quarter, mainly due to planned maintenance at Kazakhstan’s giant Kashagan field.

The US and its allies are trying to punish Moscow in the oil market for the country’s invasion of Ukraine, prompting speculation the court order is a politically motivated response that may have less of an impact on supply in practice.

In late March, CPC had to shut two of three moorings for repairs for more than a month due to significant damage caused by bad weather. Last month, the terminal operated from one of three moorings after World War II mines were found nearby.

Despite those setbacks, which also alarmed the market at the time, CPC managed to keep its exports largely in line with pre-planned loading levels.

Physical oil traders aren’t taking any chances though. Dated to Frontline Brent swaps, which reflect the premium of real-world North Sea crude supplies over ICE Brent futures, have surged to a premium of about $5 a barrel.

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BofA Securities maintains Amazon.com at ‘buy’ with a price target of $154.00

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Six people in critical condition, one still missing after Paris blast – prosecutor

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© Reuters. French firefighters and rescue forces work after several buildings on fire following a gas explosion in the fifth arrondissement of Paris, France, June 21, 2023. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes

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PARIS (Reuters) – Six people remained in a critical condition and one person was believed still missing on Thursday, one day after a blast ripped through a street near Paris’ historic Latin Quarter, the city’s public prosecution office said. “These figures may still change,” prosecutor Maylis De Roeck told Reuters in a text message, adding that around 50 people had been injured in the blast, which set buildings ablaze and caused the front of one to collapse onto the street. Of two people initially believed missing, one has been found in hospital and is being taken care of, the prosecutor said, adding: “Searches are ongoing to find the second person.” Authorities have not yet said what caused the explosion, which witnesses said had followed a strong smell of gas at the site. The explosion led to scenes of chaos and destruction in the historic Rue Saint Jacques, which runs from the Notre-Dame de Paris Cathedral to the Sorbonne University, just as people were heading home from work. It also destroyed the facade of a building housing the Paris American Academy design school popular with foreign students. Florence Berthout, mayor of the Paris district where the blast occurred, said 12 students who should have been in the academy’s classrooms at the time had fortunately gone to visit an exhibition with their teacher.
“Otherwise the (death toll) could have been absolutely horrific,” Berthout told BFM TV. She said three children who had been passing by at the time were among the injured, although their lives were not in danger.

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4 big analyst cuts: Alcoa & DigitalOcean shares drop on downgrades

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Here is your Pro Recap of the biggest analyst cuts you may have missed since yesterday: downgrades at Alcoa, DigitalOcean, Teleflex, and Xcel Energy.InvestingPro subscribers got this news in rapid fire. Never be left in the dust again.Alcoa stock drops on Morgan Stanley downgrade Alcoa (NYSE:) shares fell more than 3% pre-market today after Morgan Stanley downgraded the company to Underweight from Equalweight and cut its price target to $33.00 from $43.00, as reported in real time on InvestingPro.The firm sees a significant decline in consensus estimates, and as negative earnings revisions materialize, it believes the stock will face downward pressure and underperform.The analyst’s estimates for EBITDA in Q2, 2023, and 2024 are substantially lower than the consensus. The stock is currently trading above its historical average. The firm said its downward revisions in earnings estimates and price target are attributed to the company’s high operating leverage to aluminum prices.DigitalOcean stock plunges on downgradePiper Sandler downgraded DigitalOcean (NYSE:) to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $35.00. As a result, shares plunged more than 5% pre-market today.The company reported its last month, with revenue beating the consensus estimate, while EPS coming in worse than expected. Furthermore, the company provided a strong outlook, which was above the Street estimates.2 more downgradesTeleflex (NYSE:) shares fell more than 3% yesterday after Needham downgraded the company to Hold from Buy, noting that UroLift expectations may still be too high.According to Needham, their checks indicate that urologists are reducing their use of UroLift due to its retreatment rates, reimbursement cuts, and increasing use of competing procedures. This is also supported by their Google Trends data analysis, which indicates decreasing search interest in UroLift.BMO Capital downgraded Xcel Energy (NASDAQ:) to Market Perform from Outperform and cut its price target to $64.00 from $69.00 to reflect the lower-than-expected terms of the company’s regulatory settlement in Colorado.Amid whipsaw markets and a slew of critical headlines, seize on the right timing to protect your profits: Always be the first to know with InvestingPro.Start your free 7-day trial now.

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