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Stock market: Here’s what usually happens after a 20% plunge

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If there is anything to hang your hat on during the current bear market in stocks, it’s that longer term markets tend to rebound very nicely.

The S&P 500 has been higher three years later in eight out of nine cases in which the index has fallen 20% or more from an all-time high going back to 1957, according to research from Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner. Stocks have returned on average 29% during those eight cases.

Interestingly, stocks have also sharply regained ground a year after falling 20% or more from a high. Lerner’s data shows the S&P 500 has increased 15% on average in the seven times stocks have tanked 20% or more from a high dating back to 1957.

“Given the wide range of outcomes,” Lerner wrote in the note to clients, “our view is that this is not the time to be aggressive, but we are also not advocating reducing equities for investors who are aligned with their longer-term equity allocations. At this point, a lot of the excesses have been wrung out.”

Stocks often rally back after big drops.

Stocks often rally back after big drops.

To Lerner’s point, investors have moved quickly this year to re-price stocks amid sky-high inflation and a Federal Reserve locked and loaded on interest rate hikes.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are all having their worst starts to a year in several decades. Lerner points out more precisely that this is the third worst return at the halfway point for markets since 1950 and the weakest since 1970.

Virtually no areas of the market have been spared from the bears’ teeth.

Growth stocks such as Amazon, Tesla, and Netflix are all down more than 30% so far in 2022. A relative safe-haven such as Apple is off by 18% on the year.

Overall, markets continue to be on recession watch for the U.S., the world’s largest economy.

The bull sculpture representing the rise of the market (R) and the bear sculpture representing its fall in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on December 28, 2020. (Photo by ARMANDO BABANI/AFP via Getty Images)

The bull sculpture representing the rise of the market (R) and the bear sculpture representing its fall in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on December 28, 2020. (Photo by ARMANDO BABANI/AFP via Getty Images)

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is now predicting a 2.1% decline in Q2 U.S. economic output, which would meet the unofficial threshold for a recession when matched with the 1.6% decline in Q1.

“This is actually a really difficult time to be thinking very long-term,” BlackRock global allocation head of thematic strategy Kate Moore said on Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “We know that there are a tremendous number of crosscurrents right now in the market. It is not just monetary policy and the durability of inflation, but also kind of what is going on geopolitically.”

Three years from today couldn’t get here quick enough for investors.

Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.

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BofA Securities maintains Amazon.com at ‘buy’ with a price target of $154.00

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Six people in critical condition, one still missing after Paris blast – prosecutor

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© Reuters. French firefighters and rescue forces work after several buildings on fire following a gas explosion in the fifth arrondissement of Paris, France, June 21, 2023. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes

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PARIS (Reuters) – Six people remained in a critical condition and one person was believed still missing on Thursday, one day after a blast ripped through a street near Paris’ historic Latin Quarter, the city’s public prosecution office said. “These figures may still change,” prosecutor Maylis De Roeck told Reuters in a text message, adding that around 50 people had been injured in the blast, which set buildings ablaze and caused the front of one to collapse onto the street. Of two people initially believed missing, one has been found in hospital and is being taken care of, the prosecutor said, adding: “Searches are ongoing to find the second person.” Authorities have not yet said what caused the explosion, which witnesses said had followed a strong smell of gas at the site. The explosion led to scenes of chaos and destruction in the historic Rue Saint Jacques, which runs from the Notre-Dame de Paris Cathedral to the Sorbonne University, just as people were heading home from work. It also destroyed the facade of a building housing the Paris American Academy design school popular with foreign students. Florence Berthout, mayor of the Paris district where the blast occurred, said 12 students who should have been in the academy’s classrooms at the time had fortunately gone to visit an exhibition with their teacher.
“Otherwise the (death toll) could have been absolutely horrific,” Berthout told BFM TV. She said three children who had been passing by at the time were among the injured, although their lives were not in danger.

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4 big analyst cuts: Alcoa & DigitalOcean shares drop on downgrades

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Here is your Pro Recap of the biggest analyst cuts you may have missed since yesterday: downgrades at Alcoa, DigitalOcean, Teleflex, and Xcel Energy.InvestingPro subscribers got this news in rapid fire. Never be left in the dust again.Alcoa stock drops on Morgan Stanley downgrade Alcoa (NYSE:) shares fell more than 3% pre-market today after Morgan Stanley downgraded the company to Underweight from Equalweight and cut its price target to $33.00 from $43.00, as reported in real time on InvestingPro.The firm sees a significant decline in consensus estimates, and as negative earnings revisions materialize, it believes the stock will face downward pressure and underperform.The analyst’s estimates for EBITDA in Q2, 2023, and 2024 are substantially lower than the consensus. The stock is currently trading above its historical average. The firm said its downward revisions in earnings estimates and price target are attributed to the company’s high operating leverage to aluminum prices.DigitalOcean stock plunges on downgradePiper Sandler downgraded DigitalOcean (NYSE:) to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $35.00. As a result, shares plunged more than 5% pre-market today.The company reported its last month, with revenue beating the consensus estimate, while EPS coming in worse than expected. Furthermore, the company provided a strong outlook, which was above the Street estimates.2 more downgradesTeleflex (NYSE:) shares fell more than 3% yesterday after Needham downgraded the company to Hold from Buy, noting that UroLift expectations may still be too high.According to Needham, their checks indicate that urologists are reducing their use of UroLift due to its retreatment rates, reimbursement cuts, and increasing use of competing procedures. This is also supported by their Google Trends data analysis, which indicates decreasing search interest in UroLift.BMO Capital downgraded Xcel Energy (NASDAQ:) to Market Perform from Outperform and cut its price target to $64.00 from $69.00 to reflect the lower-than-expected terms of the company’s regulatory settlement in Colorado.Amid whipsaw markets and a slew of critical headlines, seize on the right timing to protect your profits: Always be the first to know with InvestingPro.Start your free 7-day trial now.

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