‘The biggest Ponzi scheme in history’: This CEO warns that the Fed’s strategy has created a giant bubble in housing. Here’s what he likes for protection
The Fed is tasked with a dual mandate: to ensure price stability and aim for maximum employment.
But according to Dan Morehead, CEO of crypto hedge fund giant Pantera Capital, there’s a third thing that the Fed has been doing — running a Ponzi scheme.
In his latest Blockchain Letter, Morehead says that the Fed’s “manipulation of the government and mortgage bond markets” is “the biggest Ponzi scheme in history.”
The expert investor even issued a warning on CNBC last week, saying that it’s likely that a “recession is coming.”
Let’s take a closer look at what he means.
Federal funds rate
Morehead argues that the Fed made a big policy mistake by keeping the federal funds rate far too low.
“The difference between inflation (their mandate) and their policy tool (fed funds) is much larger than at any point in history — including the disastrous 1970s,” he writes.
“They left rates at zero. Fed funds were 1.55% before the pandemic. They’ve just gotten overnight rates to back where they were before the pandemic policy eruption when inflation was only 2.30%.”
As we know very well by now, inflation is no longer at 2.30%. The latest Labor Department report showed that consumer prices rose 8.6% in May from a year ago, marking the biggest increase since December 1981.
And even that official reading was not accurate because it does not measure housing inflation in real time, argues Morehead.
Instead, the official CPI measures housing inflation using something called owner’s equivalent rent — how much it would cost a homeowner to live in their home if they were renting — and that metric only went up 5.1% year over year.
If you’ve been in the market to buy or rent a property, you’d know prices have gone up way more than that. The government says it uses owner’s equivalent rent because it’s only trying to measure the change in the cost of shelter while removing the investment aspect of homebuying.
Morehead instead looks at the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, a leading measure of U.S. residential real estate prices that can be viewed as a barometer of the housing market. It jumped 20.6% year over year, and Morehead says that if we use that instead of owner’s equivalent rent to calculate inflation, CPI would have gone up 12.5%.
To tame spiking inflation, Morehead says that the Fed still needs to raise interest rates “by three or four hundred basis points.”
Manipulation of the bond market
While the low interest rate policy was a mistake, Morehead says, it is “dwarfed” by the Fed’s manipulation of the government and mortgage bond markets.
He suggests that previously, the Fed let free market actors like pension plans, mutual funds and insurance companies do the lending — but things changed in 2020.
“[W]hen the Fed got into the mortgage lending business, they really went for it. They completely crowded out all other lenders.”
And that led to a huge increase in housing prices.
“They forced 30-year mortgage rates to hit 2.68%, basically daring people not to buy a house (or two or three), which would obviously create a bubble in housing, which itself contributed to a labor shortage as two million Americans retired early or otherwise left the workforce.”
Officials argue that the Fed’s purchases of securities were essential to “keep markets working” during the pandemic and “convey to the public that the Fed stands ready to backstop important parts of the financial system.”
But when you can borrow money at 2.68% to buy properties that are going up 20% in value per year on average, both homeowners and investors are going to go for it, explains Morehead.
“Over the past two years the Fed bought government and mortgage bonds equivalent to over 200% of all mortgage lending in the U.S.”
While that doesn’t match the exact definition of a Ponzi scheme, Morehead argues that the Fed’s easy money policies has created a huge housing bubble.
Crypto to the rescue?
All of that does not bode well for the U.S. economy.
Plenty of experts — including Morehead — are calling for a recession. But investors are already feeling the pain. With the S&P 500 down 20% year to date, many stocks are already in a bear market.
The Fed, on the other hand, is more optimistic. Last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy is in “strong shape” and “overall the U.S. economy is well positioned to withstand tighter monetary policy.”
Morehead expects interest rate hikes to impact bonds, stocks and real estate. But there are asset classes that are less correlated with the interest rate markets.
“I can easily see a world in, say, a year when stocks are down, bonds are down, you know, real estate’s down, but crypto is rallying and trading on its own — very much like gold does, or soft commodities like corn, soybeans all doing very well.”
Morehead’s Pantera Capital specializes in blockchain technology. It launched the first cryptocurrency fund in the U.S. in 2013.
That said, Morehead did note that crypto is “very correlated with risk assets.”
Bitcoin — the world’s largest cryptocurrency — is down 57% year to date but has still returned over 900% over the past five years.
What to read next
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
American Weed Stocks Are Cheap. They’re About to Get a Sales Bump.
However bad the year has been for most stocks, it has been especially harsh for state-licensed cannabis sellers.
In just the past month, the
AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis
exchange-traded fund (ticker: MSOS), which tracks America’s multistate operators—or MSOs—fell 25%, while the
How Do Mega Backdoor Roths Work?
A mega backdoor Roth is a unique 401(k) rollover strategy that’s designed for people whose incomes would ordinarily keep them from saving in a Roth Individual Retirement Account. The advantage of using a Roth IRA to save for retirement is being able to make tax-free qualified withdrawals. But not everyone can contribute to these accounts; higher-income earners are excluded. That’s where the mega backdoor Roth comes into play. If you have a 401(k) you’d like to roll over, you could use this strategy to enjoy the tax benefits of a Roth IRA without having income be an obstacle.
Make sure you’re taking advantage of every opportunity to maximize your retirement assets by working with a financial advisor.
Roth Account Basics
Before diving into the specifics of a mega backdoor Roth, there are a few things to know about Roth accounts, including Roth IRAs and Roth 401(k)s.
First, these accounts are both funded with after-tax dollars. That means when you make qualified withdrawals later, you won’t pay income tax on the money since you already paid it upfront. This is the key characteristic of Roth accounts and what makes them so appealing to investors who anticipate being in a higher tax bracket at retirement.
Next, your ability to contribute to a Roth 401(k) is not restricted by your income. But it is for a Roth IRA. For the 2021 tax year, you must be within these modified adjusted gross income limits to make a full Roth IRA contribution:
Single filers: MAGI of $125,000 or less
Married filing jointly: MAGI of $198,000 or less
Head of household: MAGI of $125,000 or less
You can make partial contributions above those income limits. But your ability to contribute phases out completely once your MAGI hits $140,000 (if you file single or head of household) or $208,000 if you’re married and file a joint return. For 2021, the full contribution allowed is $6,000 with a $1,000 catch-up contribution for savers aged 50 and older.
Finally, Roth 401(k) accounts are subject to required minimum distribution rules just like traditional 401(k) accounts. This rule requires you to begin taking money from your 401(k) starting at age 72. A Roth IRA, on the other hand, is not subject to RMD rules.
What Is a Backdoor Roth?
A backdoor Roth offers a work-around for people whose incomes are above the limits set by the IRS. When you execute a backdoor Roth, you roll money over from a traditional IRA to a Roth account. This way, you won’t have to pay taxes on your retirement savings in the Roth IRA when it’s time to make withdrawals. And you’re not subject to required minimum distribution rules either.
But there is a catch. You have to pay income tax on the money you roll over to a Roth account. So while you could save money on taxes in retirement, you’re not escaping the tax liability of a traditional IRA altogether.
How a Mega Backdoor Roth Works
A mega backdoor Roth is a backdoor Roth that’s designed specifically for people who have a 401(k) plan at work. This type of backdoor Roth allows you to contribute up to $38,500 to a Roth IRA or a Roth 401(k) in 2021. This is in addition to the regular annual contribution limits the IRS allows for these types of accounts. To execute a mega backdoor Roth, two conditions have to be met. Your 401(k) plan needs to allow the following:
You can ask your plan administrator whether your 401(k) meets these criteria. And if your plan doesn’t allow for in-service withdrawals or distributions, you could still attempt a mega backdoor Roth if you plan to leave your job in the near future.
If your plan meets the criteria, then you can take the next steps to execute a mega backdoor Roth. This is typically a two-step process that involves maxing out after-tax 401(k) contributions, then withdrawing the after-tax portion of your account to a Roth IRA.
Again, whether you can follow through on the second step depends on whether your plan allows in-service withdrawals. If it doesn’t, you’ll have to wait until you separate from your employer to roll over any after-tax money in your 401(k) into a Roth IRA.
You also need to watch out for the pro rata rule. This IRS rule says you can’t only withdraw pre- or post-tax contributions from a traditional 401(k). So if you’re completing a mega backdoor Roth, you couldn’t just withdraw post-tax contributions if your account holds both pre- and post-tax funds. In that case, you may have to roll over the entire balance to a Roth IRA.
Benefits of a Mega Backdoor Roth
There are three key benefits associated with executing a mega backdoor Roth. First, you can contribute significantly more to a Roth IRA upfront this way. For 2021, the contribution limit is $38,500 on top of the regular annual contribution limit and any catch-up contribution limits that may apply.
You’ll need to know the maximum amount you’re allowed to contribute to the after-tax portion of your 401(k). So for 2021, the IRS allows a maximum contribution of $58,000 or $64,500 if you’re 50 or older. You’d subtract your 401(k) contributions and anything your employer adds in matching contributions to figure out how much you could add to the after-tax portion.
Next, you can enjoy tax-free withdrawals in retirement. This is a benefit you may otherwise not being able to get if your income is too high to contribute to a Roth IRA. By reducing your tax liability in retirement, you can help your investment dollars go further. And you may have a larger legacy of wealth to pass on to future generations.
Finally, a mega backdoor Roth IRA would allow you to sidestep required minimum distribution rules. This means that you could retain control over when you choose to take distributions from a Roth IRA.
So who is a mega backdoor Roth right for? You may consider this move if you:
Have an eligible 401(k) plan at work
Have maxed out traditional 401(k) contributions
Are not eligible to contribute to a Roth IRA because of your income
Have additional money that you want to invest for retirement
Want to leverage the higher Roth IRA contribution limits allowed by a mega backdoor rollover
Talking to your financial advisor can help you decide if a mega backdoor Roth makes sense. And your 401(k) plan administrator should be able to tell you if it’s possible, based on your plan’s guidelines.
Mega Backdoor Roth Alternatives
If you can’t execute a mega backdoor Roth because your plan doesn’t allow it, there are other ways to increase your retirement savings. For example, you could try a regular backdoor Roth instead. This might be something to consider if you still want to enjoy the tax benefits of a Roth IRA but your plan doesn’t fit the criteria for a mega rollover. You could also elect to make Roth 401(k) contributions to your retirement plan at work. This way, you still get the benefit of contributing after-tax dollars and making tax-free withdrawals. You’d be subject to the regular contribution limits and you’d still have to take the required minimum distribution. But that may outweigh the value of tax savings in retirement.
Investing in a Health Savings Account (HSA) is another option. While these accounts are not specifically designed for retirement, they can yield multiple tax benefits. Contributions are tax-deductible and grow tax-deferred. Withdrawals are tax-free when used for eligible healthcare expenses. And at 65, you can take money out of an HSA for any reason without a tax penalty. You’ll just owe ordinary income tax on any withdrawals that are not used for healthcare expenses.
Finally, you could open a taxable brokerage account to invest. This doesn’t necessarily save you money on taxes since you’ll owe capital gains tax when you sell investments at a profit. But it could help you to diversify your investments and there are no limits on how much you can invest in a brokerage account annually.
A mega backdoor Roth strategy could work well for higher-income earners who want to take advantage of Roth account benefits. There are certain rules that need to be followed to make it work, however, so you may want to talk to your plan administrator or a tax professional before going ahead. Keep in mind also that even if you can’t complete a mega backdoor Roth rollover, you still have other options for growing retirement savings.
Tips for Retirement Planning
If you’re saving for retirement in a 401(k) or IRA, pay attention to the fees you’re paying. For instance, check the expense ratios for each fund you’re invested in to understand how much you pay to own that fund on an annual basis. You can then compare that to the fund’s performance to determine whether the fees are justified. Also, consider any administrative fees you might be paying and how those affect your net returns.
Consider talking to your financial advisor about a mega backdoor Roth and whether it could be right for you. If you don’t have a financial advisor yet, finding one doesn’t have to be complicated. SmartAsset’s financial advisor matching tool makes it easy to connect with professional advisors in your local area. You can get your personalized recommendations in minutes just by answering a few simple questions. If you’re ready, get started now.
Photo credit: ©iStock.com/designer491
Alibaba Is Tumbling. Chinese Tech Stocks Have a New Headache.
Chinese tech stocks were tumbling on Monday as two of the embattled sector’s leading players faced fresh fines from market regulators over disclosure rules.
China’s State Administration for Market Regulation announced Sunday a wave of penalties for improperly reporting past deals, in breach of competition law.
(ticker: BABA) and
(0700.H.K.) were among the companies fined as a result.
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