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Commodities

Current situation on the gas market: a gas war breaks out in the world

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natural gas market price

There is discord in Europe: some countries urgently want to reconcile with Russia; others want to buy gas from Nigeria. All this has a strong impact on the European gas market. 

Natural gas market news – market situation

The European gas market has been shaking for many months now, but as we approach autumn the panic is getting worse. While Russia is sorting out problems with the delivery of the turbine for Nord Stream, the EU countries are actively looking for an opportunity to fill their storage facilities and at the same time convince their citizens that they should heat their apartments less in winter. And while citizens will be left with no alternative, the industrial enterprises still need energy to operate. 

Against this background, European politicians are actively looking for a way out of the situation they have created. They realize that they will not be able to reduce gas consumption. This is the opinion of a lot of countries, which demand preferences and do not want to meet the requirements of the EU authorities to voluntarily reduce gas consumption by 15%. According to the Financial Times, it is necessary to cancel such a requirement for at least five countries of the bloc. 

Most countries of the European Union have already begun to save money on everything. In France, they are intensifying measures to save electricity – they will restrict light advertising and prohibit stores with air conditioners to keep their doors open, said Minister of Energy Transformation Agnès Pannier-Runache. 

All new proposals to diversify supplies, even the most exotic ones, are in circulation. For example, Matthew Baldwin, deputy director general of the European Commission’s energy department, said that the EU is looking to arrange additional gas supplies from Nigeria. Baldwin said that the EU imports 14% of its total LNG supplies from Nigeria, and there is the potential to more than double this figure. 

Oil and gas production in Nigeria is limited by theft and pipeline vandalism, leaving the terminal of gas producer Nigeria LNG Ltd. on Bonny Island operating at 60% capacity. But if supplies rise to at least 80 percent, it will make Europe feel more secure. 

Hot and cold weather will continue to weigh on the natural gas market

Gas market prices in Europe rose to $1,700 per 1,000 cubic meters last week. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline is up, and running, but it is pumping about 40 percent of its operating capacity, roughly the same as before the shutdown for maintenance. The Siemens turbine has not yet arrived in Russia, which leaves some risk of further low pumping. 

Europe’s UGS capacity was 66.24% as of July 23, increasing by 3.7% over the week. EU members oppose the EU’s demand for a 15% reduction in gas consumption. Germany raised its gas storage target to 95% for the Nov. 1 state. 

In the US, the Henry Hub (CME futures) gas price continued to rise to $8.299/mmbtu ($297 per 1,000 cubic meters) amid a supply shortfall due to accidents, seasonally higher consumption and high export demand. Natural gas inventories in U.S. natural gas storage facilities continued to grow, but the rate of growth slowed significantly due to rising consumption. On a year-over-year basis, storage inventories as of July 15 remained 10.1% below year-ago levels and 12.09% below the level of the past five years. 

The price of natural gas in Asia on a JKM basis fell slightly to $38.09/mmBTU, or $1,460 per 1,000 cubic meters. Japanese and Taiwanese buyers are once again entering the spot natural gas market with purchases for the coming winter. Japan’s LNG imports for the first six months of 2022 were 3.5% lower than in the same period in 2021. China has also reduced purchases due to coronavirus restrictions. 

The oil and gas markets will remain tight in the near term. Prices will directly depend on the supply situation, but they are not expected to ease any time soon. Demand will continue to rise with the coming hottest summer month (August), and gas pumping into storage facilities will increase pressure on the market. 

Pressure from both sides will stabilize the price 

The European gas market showed a slight increase on Monday, from $1,690 to 1715 per 1000 cubic meters. It continues the recent technical correction after a slight drop from $1,900 to $1,500 at the start of last week. 

The natural gas market price is under pressure from opposing strong factors. Its marked “descent” for energy carriers after the June panic is connected not only with the current conjuncture, but also with the growing fears of the impending recession in Europe and the USA. At the same time, high inflation (8.6% in the eurozone and 9.1% in the United States) and higher central bank interest rates are hindering economic growth. 

The eurozone is in a tricky situation, with prices rising from 8.6% to 8.7%. This could be perceived as an increase in inflationary expectations, which would also affect the growth of gas prices. Its price, by the way, is also supported by previous fears of a physical shortage of gas for autumn-winter in Europe due to insufficient supplies. 

Thus, the combination of multidirectional, strong and little predictable drivers of gas quotations will keep them in the same established range of $1,500-1,900 this week. 


Commodities

Gold prices sink below $2,300 as markets brace for hawkish Fed

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Investing.com– Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Wednesday, extending steep overnight losses that saw the yellow metal slide past a key support level as markets braced for potentially hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve later in the day.

The yellow metal fell further from record highs hit in April as diminished safe haven demand, amid some de-escalation in global geopolitical tensions, left it vulnerable to headwinds from interest rates.

fell 0.1% to $2,285.19 an ounce, while expiring in June fell 0.3% to $2,295.25 an ounce by 23:50 ET (03:50 GMT). Spot prices fell below the closely-watched $2,300 an ounce level on Tuesday, leaving the yellow metal open to more losses before more cues on U.S. interest rates.

Fed meeting awaited, Powell to wax hawkish 

Focus was now squarely on the conclusion of a two-day later on Wednesday, where the central bank is set to keep rates unchanged. 

But Fed Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to offer a hawkish outlook, especially after a string of hotter-than-expected inflation readings. A stronger-than-expected reading on the , for the first quarter, furthered this notion on Tuesday. 

Strong inflation readings saw traders steadily price out expectations of early rate cuts by the Fed. The central bank is now only expected to begin cutting rates by September, if at all.

Higher-for-longer interest rates bode poorly for gold, given that they increase the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal. Dwindling expectations of rate cuts dragged gold prices down from record highs over the past two weeks. 

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Other precious metals also fell on Wednesday, as the dollar shot up to near six-month highs.  fell 0.2% to $943.95 an ounce, while fell 0.2% to $26.598 an ounce.

Copper prices fall from two-year highs after stellar April

Among industrial metals, copper prices fell from two-year highs amid pressure from a stronger dollar, while stellar gains through April also made for some profit-taking. 

on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.8% to $9,910.0 a ton, while fell 0.3% to $4.5285 a pound.

Both contracts surged between 14% and 16% in April on expectations of tighter supplies, amid more sanction on Russia and production cuts by major Chinese refiners. 

But fears of slowing economic growth- especially as interest rates remain higher for longer- may chip away at copper in the near-term.

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Oil falls for a third day on Middle East ceasefire hopes

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By Alex Lawler and Deep Kaushik Vakil

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil fell more than 1% on Wednesday, losing ground for a third straight session on hopes of a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East and by rising crude inventories and production in top consumer the United States.

Expectations that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas could be in sight have grown following a renewed push led by Egypt, even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to go ahead with a long-promised assault on Rafah.

futures for July were down $1.24, or 1.4%, to $85.09 a barrel by 1145 GMT, having hit $84.78, their lowest since March 15.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for June were down $1.33, or 1.6%, to $80.60, after touching their lowest since March 21.

“The crude market is weighed down by continued hopes for a ceasefire,” said Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank.

“In addition, stubborn U.S. inflation has further reduced rate cut expectations.”

U.S. Federal Reserve officials are concluding their latest two-day policy meeting on Wednesday and are expected to hold interest rates steady. A rate cut would act as a boost to economic growth and fuel demand.

“Continued signs of inflation also raised concerns about demand for crude oil. This comes ahead of the U.S. driving season, where demand for gasoline rises strongly,” ANZ analysts said in a report on Wednesday.

Further weighing on prices were separate reports that inventories rose and production increased.

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U.S. crude inventories rose 4.906 million barrels in the week ended April 26, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures, which defied expectations for a decline of 1.1 million barrels.

Traders will be waiting to see if official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) at 1430 GMT confirms the trend.

On Tuesday, the EIA said U.S. production rose to 13.15 million barrels per day (bpd) in February from 12.58 million bpd in January, its biggest monthly increase in about 3-1/2 years.

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Oil prices sink on surprise US inventory build; Middle East peace talks eyed

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Investing.com– Oil prices fell sharply Wednesday, extending recent losses as an unexpected build in U.S. stockpiles and strong crude production sparked doubts over tight supply conditions ahead of the Fed meeting.

At 08:25 ET (12:25 GMT), fell 1.4% to $85.15 a barrel, while fell 1.6% to $80.61 a barrel, dropping to their lowest levels since mid-March.

U.S. inventory build, strong output weighs

Data from the American Petroleum Institute, released on Tuesday, indicated that U.S. grew by 4.9 million barrels in the week to April 26, a far greater build than the increase of 1.5 million barrels expected.

While gasoline and distillate stockpiles shrank, if this rise in overall inventories id confirmed by , due later in the session, it would suggest that oil supplies were not as tight as initially expected in the world’s biggest fuel consumer. 

This notion was reinforced by separate data showing U.S. domestic crude output rose to 13.15 million barrels per day in February from 12.58 million barrels in January, its biggest jump since October. The rise also saw U.S. production come back in sight of record highs. 

This spurred doubts over just how tight global crude markets would be in the coming months, given that U.S. output remains robust and the country’s oil markets remain well supplied. 

Fed fears in play, dollar strength weighs 

Markets were also on edge ahead of the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting of the Federal Reserve later in the day.

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While the central bank is widely expected to , Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to strike a hawkish note following a series of strong inflation readings.

Expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates saw the dollar rise sharply this week, which also weighed on oil prices, with prolonged exposure to elevated interest rates likely to weigh on economic activity by the world’s largest consumer.

Middle East peace talks

A potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could also further downplay expectations of tighter markets, as it would lower the risks of supply disruptions in the key oil-rich Middle East. 

Expectations that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas could be in sight have grown following a renewed push led by Egypt.

“The geopolitical risk premium continues to fade as tensions between Israel and Iran have eased. There are also some hopes for a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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