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3 reasons why Bitcoin’s price is primed to hold the $30,000 level as support

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Bitcoin’s price gave back some of its recent gains this week, but multiple data points suggest that $30,000 should hold as support going forward.

Bitcoin (BTC) remained within a narrow 4.3% range for the 15 days leading up to July 7. Despite the proximity of the $29,895 to $31,165 range, investors’ sentiment was significantly impacted by an unsuccessful attempt to break above $31,400 on July 6.

Traders’ tendency to overreact to short-term price movements rather than Bitcoin’s year-to-date gains of 82% could be part of the reason for the short-term correction. This same rationale applies to the events related to other cryptocurrencies.

At the forefront of investors’ minds are questions about whether the recent price gains were solely driven by multiple spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) requests.

Other pressing developments include Binance’s chief strategy officer, Patrick Hillmann, and other top compliance officers reportedly leaving the exchange on July 6 over CEO Changpeng Zhao’s response to the United States Justice Department’s investigation. On June 29, the crypto exchange also informed users that its euro banking payment gateway would cease services by September, potentially halting deposits and withdrawals via SEPA bank transfer.

Meanwhile, the yield curve on interest rates reached its deepest inversion since 1981 on July 3, reflecting the two-year note’s 4.94% yield compared to the 10-year note trading at 3.86%, the opposite of what is expected from longer-term bonds. The phenomenon is closely watched by investors, as it has preceded past recessions.

All of these events are likely having some impact on the Bitcoin price and investor sentiment. Both topics are explored in greater depth below.

Traders show strength in margin, options and futures markets

OKX stablecoin/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKX

The OKX margin lending indicator based on the stablecoin/BTC ratio has steadily increased from 20x favoring longs on July 1 to the current 29x ratio on July 7, indicating growing confidence among traders using margin lending. However, it remains within a neutral-to-bullish range, below the historical 30x threshold associated with excessive optimism.

Besides leaving room for further long leverage, the indicator shows no signs of potential stress on margin markets in case of a sudden Bitcoin price correction.

Traders aren’t buying protective puts or increasing their shorts

Traders can also gauge the market’s sentiment by measuring whether more activity is going through call (buy) options or put (sell) options. A 0.70 put-to-call ratio indicates that put option open interest lags the more bullish calls and is, therefore, bullish. In contrast, a 1.40 indicator favors put options, which can be deemed bearish.

BTC options volume put-to-call ratio. Source: Laevitas

The put-to-call ratio for Bitcoin options volume has remained below 1.0 for the past three days, suggesting a higher preference for neutral-to-bullish call options. The important thing here is, despite Bitcoin’s price briefly correcting to $29,750 on July 7, there was not a significant surge in demand for protective put options.

The top traders’ long-to-short net ratio excludes externalities that might have solely impacted the options markets. There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

Exchanges’ top traders’ long-to-short ratio. Source: CoinGlass

The long-to-short ratio for OKX’s top traders increased from 0.52 on July 3 to 1.68 on July 7, indicating strong demand for leveraged long positions despite Bitcoin’s failure to break above $31,000. At Binance, the indicator declined from 1.52 on July 3 to 1.39 on July 7, remaining above its 1.33 average for the previous 30 days, which suggests a neutral reading.

Related: Bitcoin mining stocks outperform BTC in 2023, but on-chain data points to a potential stall

Bears will have a tough time given the markets’ expectation of a potential ETF approval

Natalie Brunell, an award-winning TV journalist, podcast host and educator in the Bitcoin space, spoke to Cointelegraph on how crypto is now being taken more seriously as an asset class by institutional investors, as evidenced by the multiple Bitcoin ETF filings, including by some of the world’s largest asset fund managers.

Speaking on Fox Business on July 5, Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, also said that Bitcoin’s role was largely “digitizing gold,” suggesting U.S. regulators consider how a spot ETF could democratize finance. Fink suggested that investors could turn to Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation or the devaluation of certain currencies.

So, from a bird’s-eye view, for those questioning whether Bitcoin is poised for a correction after a rally fueled by ETF hype, the resilience of traders’ bullish conviction and lack of excessive optimism observed in the BTC margin show they need to relax.

Bitcoin options and futures markets indicate that challenging times are ahead for Bitcoin bears and those expecting a sharp price correction solely due to regulatory and recessionary concerns.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Cryptocurrency

Burgers and Bitcoin: Donald Trump Demonstrates Support for BTC at NYC Bar 

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The presidential candidate reiterated his support for digital assets on Sept. 18 by treating his supporters to burgers at a New York bar and paying with BTC.

Trump entered a crypto-themed venue called PubKey in Greenwich Village where he was met with applause from Bitcoiners and supporters.

“Who wants a burger?” he asked before spending almost a thousand dollars on burgers for those in the bar, reported Bloomberg.

Burgers and Bitcoin

Co-founder of PubKey, Drew Armstrong, said that Trump paid for the food using the Strike payments app which is built on the Lightning Network, and the venue received the BTC using the Zaprite app.

The Republican presidential candidate has been appealing to crypto holders and investors, which comprise a considerable vote-base in the United States. “Bitcoin is really happening,” he said at PubKey.

Another co-founder of PubKey, Thomas Pacchia, said Trump’s presence at the venue was “huge, iconic,” and influential for BTC, adding “A former president, a potential future president, this is a real coming of age for the Bitcoin community.”

He added that the transaction was the first time a former US president has used Bitcoin to purchase goods or services. Nevertheless, Democrat supporters outside the venue blasted Taylor Swift songs in protest.

Trump was on his way to a rally in Long Island, where he said he was serious about winning the state of his birth, which has voted Democrat in every presidential election since 1984.

As the election in early November nears, it is expected that Donald Trump will further emphasize his support for Bitcoin and the crypto industry to counter his Democrat rival, Kamala Harris, who has said very little on the subject.

Harris Edges Ahead

The Trump-themed memecoin MAGA (TRUMP) jumped 6.5% over the past 12 hours to reach $2.13 at the time of writing. However, the asset has been battered over the past seven days, dropping 25% since the same time last week.

Additionally, Trump officially launched his long-anticipated DeFi project, World Liberty Financial (WLF), through a live X Space event on Sept. 17.

National polls from FiveThirtyEight currently have Harris leading Trump by 48.5% to 45.2%. Moreover, Polymarket also has the Democrat candidate ahead.

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CertiK Ventures Announces $45 Million Investment Plan, Including Free Access to Community Security Tools

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[PRESS RELEASE – New York, US, September 19th, 2024]

On September 19, 2024, leading Web3 security firm CertiK, CertiK Ventures, OKX Ventures, and OKX Wallet hosted the “New Round, New Path” event during Token2049. During this event, CertiK announced a comprehensive upgrade of its products and services, which cover the entire life cycles of Web3 projects. Additionally, CertiK announced the launch of its free community security tools, including Token Scan and Wallet Scan, to support the evolving community. CertiK’s highly anticipated CertiK Ventures will invest $45 million in these endeavors to support high-potential, burgeoning Web3 projects.

CertiK is a first mover in Web3 security with a valuation of $2 billion, making it the highest-valued Web3 security company to date. Its investors include prominent institutions such as Insight Partners, Sequoia Capital, Tiger Global, and Goldman Sachs. CertiK’s core services include auditing, security scoring, compliance and anti-money laundering (AML), KYC, penetration testing, and incident response. To date, CertiK has provided security services to more than 4,700 projects across 150 countries, including renowned Web3 companies such as Ton, Ripple, Aptos, and Binance. The official launch of CertiK Ventures during Token2049 completes CertiK’s full-chain security solution, enabling its upgraded product suite to support projects from their early stages to becoming major industry players.

In addition, CertiK has introduced a range of free security tools, starting with Token Scan and Wallet Scan, to help users safeguard their assets. CertiK developed these tools based on extensive experience in conducting more than 70 white-hat operations, reporting more than 4,000 security incidents, discovering 115,000 code vulnerabilities, and protecting approximately $360 billion in assets. These free tools are designed to offer substantial support and empowerment to the community.

CertiK’s latest initiatives are not just product and service upgrades; they represent empowerment of and dedication toward Web3 security. With the announcement of its $45 million investment plan, CertiK Ventures will help drive the development of high-potential projects, accelerating the integration of innovation and security within the Web3 ecosystem.

Website | Company Twitter | Community Twitter | CertiK Alert | Telegram

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Net Outflows for Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs on Fed Rate-Cut Day

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In the days ahead of the highly anticipated US FOMC meeting, when the central bank was expected to lower the interest rates, local investors were on a shopping spree for spot Bitcoin ETFs.

However, that changed when the day arrived.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows

CryptoPotato reported yesterday the impressive streak for the four trading days leading to the FOMC meeting. As mentioned, just over $500 million in net inflows entered the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs from September 12 to September 17.

However, the landscape was different yesterday. Even though the Federal Reserve reduced the key interest rates by 50 basis points, while the general expectations were for a more modest 0.25% cut, the financial vehicles saw $52.7 million in net outflows on the day.

Ark Invest’s ARKB led the adverse trend with $43.4 million in net withdrawals. Grayscale’s initial and largest fund (GBTC) was next with $8.1 million, and BITB trailed behind with $3.9 million. The rest saw little to no actual flows, while Grayscale’s smaller and newer fund, BTC, notched $2.7 million in inflows.

BlackRock’s IBIT remains the largest of the bunch, with almost $21 billion in AUM. However, there has been only one day of positive flow for the past three weeks.

In contrast, Fidelity’s FBTC enjoyed a favorable streak of seven consecutive days of net inflows before yesterday’s lack of action.

Consistency for Ethereum ETFs

While the spot Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $500 million in net inflows in the days leading to the Fed’s policy pivot, the Ethereum counterparts didn’t have the same luxury. The withdrawals stood at $15.1 million on Tuesday and $9.4 million on Monday.

Their situation didn’t improve much yesterday when investors pulled out $9.8 million overall from the ETH-based products. Grayscale’s ETHE was at the forefront once again, seeing $14.7 million in net outflows.

The only silver lining came from BlackRock’s EHTA, which notched $4.9 million in net inflows. ETHA is the only new financial vehicle tracking the performance of Ethereum that has surpassed the coveted $1 billion milestone since its inception a couple of months back.

Despite the negative days for the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the underlying assets’ prices skyrocketed to multi-week peaks. BTC neared $63,000 earlier today, while ETH came close to $2,450.

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