Stock Markets

Morgan Stanley: bear market rally to continue

Published

2 years ago

July 17, 2022

One of Wall Street’s best-known bears, Michael Wilson, thinks the S&P 500 will rise another 7% before turning down, so the bear market rally will continue for now, writes Market Watch.

After the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite joined their strongest weekly gains since at least May last Friday, Wilson, who is chief strategist and head of U.S. equity markets at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), told clients that there could be another 5% to 7% before the downward trajectory of U.S. stocks resumes during the latest bear market recovery.

Wilson has held a bearish view of the stock market for about 2 years and correctly predicted a sell-off this year.

Wilson explained in a research note sent out to clients on Monday that a pullback in the 38-50% drop in the stock market this year “would not seem like something unnatural, not consistent with the previous bear market rally.”

While growth concerns have triggered a sell-off in commodities and lowered inflation expectations, the fact that the U.S. economy is already slowing and heading toward recession means that any market rally is likely to be short-lived, and U.S. stocks are likely to eventually fall.

Wilson mentioned in the note that the bear market is not over yet, although it may appear otherwise in the next few weeks as the market takes the rate cut as a sign that the Fed can still manage a “soft landing” and prevent a meaningful revision to earnings forecasts.

U.S. stocks rose last week as investors now hope the slowing economy and falling commodity prices may inspire the Fed to raise interest rates less sharply. Federal funds futures, a derivative used by investors to bet on the pace of the Fed’s monetary policy changes, estimate with a high probability that the Fed will be forced to start cutting interest rates again as soon as next summer.

They also consider the lower peak in the federal funds rate: it will peak around 3.5% at the end of 2022 instead of 3.75% just a couple of weeks ago. Wilson also pointed out the drop in Treasury yields: the 10-year Treasury bond yield went from 3.230% to a low of 3.07% on Friday before rebonding again on Monday.

Wilson expects the S&P 500 index to fall to around 3,400 points if the U.S. Federal Reserve manages to get a “soft landing” for the economy — which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week would be “a very difficult thing to do.”

Wilson expects that if the U.S. economy plunges into recession, the S&P 500 index will fall to around 3,000 points. In any case, Wilson believes that U.S. stocks are still highly valued because the risk premium — that is, the measure of compensation that investors receive for the extra risk of owning stocks instead of bonds — remains about 300 basis points higher than the 10-year Treasury bond yield, which is considered a “risk-free rate.”

Stock Markets

US Labor Department corrects productivity data

Published

3 hours ago

April 27, 2024

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Stock Markets

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Published

3 hours ago

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Stock Markets

Oak Valley Community Bank Named One of Central Valley’s Best Places to Work

Published

3 hours ago

April 27, 2024

OAKDALE, Calif., April 26, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Oak Valley Community Bank, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Oak Valley Bancorp (NASDAQ: OVLY) is pleased to announce that it was named by Best Companies Group as one of 2024 Best Places to Work: Central Valley. At the same time, OVCB was recognized by Opportunity Stanislaus for Growing the Economy by increasing their workforce by 10% or more throughout 2023.

We are honored to be acknowledged for our growth and named one of the Best Places to Work in the Central Valley. This recognition is a testament to our commitment to fostering a positive and supportive workplace environment and excellence in all that we do. Our success is built on our service culture, which is embraced by all members of our team. Our exceptional service is what distinguishes us. It’s not just about meeting expectations; it’s about exceeding them in ways that build lasting trust and loyalty. By delivering on this promise consistently, we create our own brand ambassadors “ who speak highly of the bank and refer colleagues and friends. We would like to take this opportunity to recognize our team. We are grateful for their loyalty and commitment to our customers, our communities, and each other, stated Chris Courtney, CEO.

Best Places to Work: Central Valley is a survey and recognition program dedicated to celebrating those employers locally who excel at creating quality jobs and environments where employees are happy to work. As a research-driven program from Best Companies Group, Best Places to Work examines a company’s practices, programs, and benefits and surveys employees for their perspective. All companies that participated in the 2024 Best Places to Work: Central Valley program receive an in-depth evaluation identifying strengths and weaknesses according to their employees. In turn, this report can be used in developing or enhancing employee retention and recruitment programs.

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We are honored to be recognized with this year’s Best Places to Work recipients; Automation Group; O’Dell (NYSE:) Engineering, Inc., Grimbleby Coleman Advisors & Accountants, Haggerty Construction, Inc., ITSolutions-Currie, One Digital, The Wonderful Company, and Community Hospice & Health Services.

Best Places to Work: Central Valley is brought to you by Opportunity Stanislaus. For more information on Best Places to Work: Central Valley visit www.bestplacestoworkcentralvalley.com.

About Opportunity Stanislaus Opportunity Stanislaus is a local economic development organization focused on improving the economic vitality of Stanislaus County. To do so, they help local entrepreneurs start and grow businesses and work to attract innovative companies to the county. For more information visit www.opportunitystanislaus.com.

About Oak Valley Community Bank OVCB offers a variety of loan and deposit products to individuals and small businesses. They currently operate through 18 conveniently located branches: Oakdale, Turlock, Stockton, Patterson, Ripon, Escalon, Manteca, Tracy, Sacramento, Roseville, two branches in Sonora, three branches in Modesto, and three branches in their Eastern Sierra Division, which includes Bridgeport, Mammoth Lakes, and Bishop. For more information visit www.ovcb.com.