Commodities
US broadly eases Venezuela oil sanctions after election deal
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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro speaks during a meeting with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi at the Miraflores Palace, in Caracas, Venezuela June 12, 2023. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
By Matt Spetalnick and Marianna Parraga
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Biden administration on Wednesday broadly eased sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in response to a deal reached between the government and opposition parties for the 2024 election – the most extensive rollback of Trump-era restrictions on Caracas.
A new general license issued by the U.S. Treasury Department authorized OPEC member Venezuela, which had been under crushing sanctions since 2019, to produce and export oil to its chosen markets for the next six months without limitation.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken welcomed President Nicolas Maduro’s electoral concessions but said Washington has given him until the end of November to begin lifting bans on opposition presidential candidates and start releasing political prisoners and “wrongfully detained” Americans.
A senior State Department official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, threatened to reverse sanctions relief measures unless Maduro takes such action.
The U.S. moves follow months of negotiations in which Washington had pressed Caracas for concrete actions toward democratic elections in return for lifting some – but not all – of the tough sanctions imposed under former U.S. President Donald Trump.
It also represents a significant step in the increased engagement of President Joe Biden’s administration with Maduro on issues ranging from energy to migration, a shift from Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against the socialist government.
Venezuela ruling party official Jorge Rodriguez, who leads the government’s negotiating team at talks with the opposition, said on state television later on Wednesday that the sanctions relief affected all oil activities.
“The possibility of any person or company coming to Venezuela to invest is totally open,” he said.
Maduro’s government and the opposition reached an agreement in Barbados on Tuesday on electoral guarantees for an internationally monitored vote to be held in the second half of 2024. But the deal stopped short of Maduro agreeing to reinstate opposition candidates who had been barred from public office.
Blinken said in a statement that the U.S. was acting “consistent with our longstanding commitment to provide U.S. sanctions relief in response to concrete steps toward competitive elections and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms.”
Wednesday’s announcements alleviated some of the toughest sanctions that Venezuela has faced but it left in place a number of other restrictions.
Even so, the U.S. measures could reopen Venezuela’s doors to dozens of oil companies with frozen or reduced operations in Venezuela.
The U.S. imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela to punish Maduro’s government following his 2018 re-election, which the U.S. and other Western governments rejected as a sham. Since 2019, U.S. sanctions have banned state-run oil company PDVSA from exporting to its chosen markets.
TROUBLED VENEZUELAN OIL SECTOR
The changes announced on Wednesday include the issuance of a six-month general license allowing the production, sale and export of Venezuela’s crude and gas, without limitations on customers or destinations, and another general license authorizing dealings with Minerven – the Venezuelan state-owned gold mining company.
The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement, however, that it was prepared to revoke those authorizations at any time if representatives of Maduro fail to follow through on their commitments in the deal with the opposition.
Treasury also removed the secondary trading ban on certain Venezuelan sovereign bonds and state-run oil company PDVSA debt and equity, though a ban on trading in the primary Venezuelan bond market remains in place, it said.
The U.S. has been seeking ways to boost global flows of oil to alleviate high prices caused by sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ decisions to reduce output.
But the chances Venezuela’s exports could offset those cuts are slim absent a big increase in investment in the country’s crippled oil sector, oil industry experts said.
Two decades of mismanagement and insufficient investment, coupled with U.S. oil sanctions since 2019, are expected to stymie state-run PDVSA’s ability to make a quick comeback to cash-paying oil markets and offer its crude at fair prices.
Talks between the government and the opposition, meant to provide a way out of Venezuela’s long-running political and economic crisis, were held on Tuesday for the first time in nearly a year. They agreed to further meetings at an unspecified date.
The deal they announced said each side can choose its 2024 candidate according to its internal rules but did not reverse bans on some opposition figures – including Oct. 22 primary frontrunner Maria Corina Machado – that prevent them from holding office.
Opposition sources said they have not given up on trying to get those bans lifted.
Commodities
Oil prices settle lower after weak August jobs report adds to demand concerns
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Investing.com — Oil prices settled lower Friday, ending the week with a loss as weaker U.S. nonfarm payrolls stoked concerns about an economic-led slowdown in crude demand.
At 2:30 p.m. ET (1430 GMT), the futures (WTI) traded fell 2.1% to settle at $67.67 a barrel, while contract fell 2.2% to $71.06 per barrel.
U.S. economic slowdown worries resurface after weak jobs report
The US economy added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, but rose from a sharply revised July figure, according to Labor Department data that could factor into the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 142,000 last month, up from a downwardly-revised mark of 89,000 in July. Economists had called for a reading of 164,000, up from the initial July mark of 114,000.
Following the release, bets that the Fed will introduce a deeper 50 basis-point rate cut — rather than a shallower 25 basis-point reduction — increased.
Concerns about the demand come just a day after OPEC+ said it had agreed to postpone a planned increase in oil production for October and November.
U.S., Europe working on Iran sanctions
Geopolitical tensions ratcheted up on Friday after the U.S. and Europe they were working on sanctions to impose on Iran after the Tehran sent missiles to Russia.
The U.S. had previously warned Iran about transferring missiles to Russia, saying it would represent a major escalation in Iran’s support of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Commodities
Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ production increases to start in December
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(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for OPEC+ oil production saying it now expects three months of production increases starting from December instead of October, the bank said in a note on Friday.
OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November, the producers group said on Thursday after crude prices hit their lowest in nine months, adding it could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed.
However Goldman Sachs maintained its range of $70-85 per barrel and a December 2025 Brent forecast at $74 per barrel.
The investment bank expects the effects of a modest reduction in OPEC+ supply in the upcoming months to be counterbalanced by easing effects from the current softness in China’s demand and faster-than-expected recovery of Libya’s supply.
“We still see the risks to our $70-85 range as skewed to the downside given high spare capacity, and downside risks to demand from weakness in China and potential trade tensions,” Goldman Sachs said.
Brent crude futures were down $1.63, or 2.24%, to $71.06 a barrel on Friday, their lowest level since December 2021. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.48 on Friday, or 2.14%, to $67.67, their lowest since June 2023. [O/R]
Commodities
Citi, Bank of America see oil prices potentially going to $60
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Investing.com — Strategists at Citi Research said oil prices could decline to around $60 per barrel by 2025, citing a significant market surplus as the primary driver.
While recent supply disruptions in Libya and a delayed production cut unwinding by OPEC+ have offered short-term support for Brent prices in the $70-72 range, Citi views this as temporary.
“At the time of writing, markets have not reacted to the OPEC+ decision, with Brent around flat to the 4 September close. Still, the Libyan situation could take months rather than a week to resolve, strategists wrote.
They highlight the likelihood of a strong market surplus emerging next year, pushing prices lower.
“We recommend selling on a bounce toward ~$80 Brent, as we look ahead to moves down to the $60 range in 2025 as a sizeable market surplus emerges,” the note states.
OPEC+ has delayed the start of its planned production cut unwind from October 2024 to December 2024, with the process now set to conclude by the end of 2025. This decision comes in response to recent market weakness and price declines, despite ongoing disruptions to Libyan oil supplies and broader economic concerns in the U.S. and China.
Separately, Bank of America’s Commodities Research team has revised down its price forecast to $75 per barrel for the second half of 2024, down from nearly $90, and for 2025, reduced from $80.
The team cites concerns about growing global oil inventories despite assuming OPEC+ will delay planned production increases. They note that weaker demand growth, combined with record OPEC+ spare capacity exceeding 5 million barrels per day, has dimmed the outlook for oil prices.
“In effect, we now see Brent oil prices moving from the top toward the middle of our unchanged $60-80/bbl medium-term range faster than previously warned,” BofA strategists said. This surplus in capacity, along with slower demand, also reduces the risk of price spikes from potential geopolitical disruptions.
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