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Why Zero Flows for Spot Bitcoin ETFs Don’t Really Matter

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Preliminary data from Farside Investors revealed that four of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs had another day of zero flows on April 16.

These were Bitwise (BITB), Invesco Galaxy (BTCO), WisdomTree (BTCW), and Hashdex (DEFI).

Additionally, Grayscale’s GBTC and ARK 21Shares’ ARKB had outflows of $79.4 million and $12.9 million respectively.

Nevertheless, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said this was perfectly normal.

Why Zeros Don’t Matter

On April 16, Seyffart said that on any given day, the vast majority of ETFs will have a flow number of zero, adding that “this is very normal.”

He said that there are around 3,500 ETFs in the US, and on April 15, 2,903 of them had a flow of exactly zero. Moreover, nine of the newly launched eleven spot Bitcoin ETFs, including Fidelity (FBTC), had a flow of zero that day.

He explained that shares are produced or destroyed in creation units, which only happens when there is a mismatch in supply and demand.

“That mismatch has to be large enough to justify tapping the underlying market,” and a bigger mismatch than a creation unit, he added.

Moreover, creation units are the lots that ETF shares are created and redeemed in. Every ETF can have different-sized creation units. In the case of the spot Bitcoin ETFs, they are blocks of shares ranging from 5,000 to 50,000 shares, he said.

“A creation or redemption will only happen if there is a large enough mismatch in supply and demand AND the cost to make a market by doing that creation or redemption is lower than simply hedging and making markets the old fashioned way.”

Third Day of Outflows

Minor mismatches will see the market makers handle trading of shares just like they would a stock, Seyffart explained. However, “it needs to be lopsided and more than a creation unit in either direction for market makers to tap the underlying market,” he added.

Therefore, when these mismatches are large enough, there will be significant inflows or outflows of the underlying asset, and when they are too small, there will be zeros.

Nevertheless, April 16 was the third trading day in a row with an outflow as a net aggregate of $58 million left spot Bitcoin ETFs. This was due to a tiny inflow of $25.8 million for BlackRock (IBIT) and outflows from GBTC and ARKB.

The underlying asset, BTC, recovered marginally, briefly reclaiming $64,000 during the Wednesday Asian trading session, but slipped in the following hours.

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US Entities’ Bitcoin Holdings Reach Massive Record: Details

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The US entities’ share of global Bitcoin reserves has reached an all-time high amidst increasing confidence in the asset class. The figure is now 65% higher than non-US entities, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.

This milestone is based on an analysis of Bitcoin holdings by identifiable US entities – including miners, MicroStrategy (MSTR), ETFs, exchanges, and government accounts – compared to known offshore counterparts.

Institutional Demand Pushes US Bitcoin Reserve Ratio to ATH

As per the infographic shared by the exec, the ratio of US to non-US Bitcoin reserves has seen a sharp increase as it rose from 1.24 in September 2024 to 1.66 by December 16 and maintained a level of 1.65 as of January 6, 2025. This shift follows a period in 2023 when offshore holdings predominated while Bitcoin traded under $30,000.

The recent surge in US-based Bitcoin reserves aligns with key events. This includes pro-crypto Donald Trump’s re-election and his proposal to establish a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, which coincided with the leading crypto asset’s surge to an all-time high above $108,000.

Institutional interest has also surged, as evidenced by spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing record inflows and trading volumes alongside MicroStrategy’s ongoing accumulation.

The latter currently holds 447,470 BTC after its latest purchase of 1,070 BTC. The company also announced plans to raise $42 billion over three years to expand its Bitcoin portfolio.

Several companies have followed MicroStrategy’s footsteps. Despite the minor slump in the market, small entities in the country remained committed to Bitcoin. For instance, this week, Thumzup Media Corporation, known for its expertise in social media branding and marketing, purchased 9.783 BTC for approximately $1 million.

The company entered the Bitcoin market for the first time in November 2024, shortly after Trump’s election win. During the same period, Solidion Technology, specializing in battery materials, revealed its intention to invest a portion of its cash reserves in Bitcoin. Genius Group quickly followed, rolling out a Bitcoin-focused initiative and committing $120 million to the digital asset.

Global Governments and Corporations Ramp Up Interest

These developments have sparked interest among non-US entities and governments in building their own strategic Bitcoin reserves. The most prominent example of this is the Japanese venture capital fund Metaplanet, which has set a target of 10,000 BTC as part of its 2025 vision.

Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich recently even predicted a global rush for BTC reserves if Trump establishes a US strategic Bitcoin reserve. The exec said that Japan and other Asian countries would likely follow the US lead, viewing Bitcoin as a strategic national asset.

He highlighted growing corporate and governmental interest in BTC and added that such trends with principles in “The Bitcoin Standard.” Gerovich also noted that Trump’s reserve strategy could also inspire third-world countries to adopt Bitcoin to stabilize their currencies.

Governments around the world are already considering Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl, for one, proposed acquiring Bitcoin for diversification in a bid to join the likes of Switzerland, Germany, and Hong Kong in exploring crypto reserves.

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These Altcoins Bleed Out as Bitcoin (BTC) Slips Below $93K (Market Watch)

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Bitcoin just doesn’t seem to be able to catch a break, as the asset slipped below $93,000 on a couple of occasions in the past 12 hours or so.

Many altcoins are also in dire situations, with notable price losses from the likes of DOGE, ADA, AVAX, LINK, and others.

BTC’s Troubles Keep Mounting

It was just about 48 hours ago when the primary cryptocurrency was charting new yearly peaks. Recall that the asset had climbed above $102,000 after a relatively quiet weekend amid growing ETF inflows, but then the landscape changed after the US announced the latest jobs report.

In a matter of minutes, the cryptocurrency plunged from six-digit territory to under $97,000 on Tuesday afternoon. The situation worsened on Wednesday as the bears kept pushing BTC south, which culminated in a price drop to $92,500 (on Bitstamp). After that weekly low, bitcoin bounced off and touched $95,000, but that was short-lived as the ETF flows turned negative, with nearly $600 million in the red.

As the Thursday Asian trading session progressed, BTC dropped once again to under $93,000. Although it sits just above that line now, the asset has lost nearly ten grand since Tuesday morning.

Its market cap has plummeted below $1.850 trillion but its dominance over the alts stands tall above 54% on CG.

Bitcoin/Price/Chart 9.1.2025. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin/Price/Chart 9.1.2025. Source: TradingView

ADA Down 8.5%

The altcoins are in no better shape, especially Cardano’s native token. ADA has plunged by more than 8% in the past 24 hours and has lost the $1 mark. DOGE, AVAX, LINK, and XLM are the other massive losers within the same time frame, with declines of up to 7%.

Nevertheless, the biggest and most painful decreases are evident from AI16Z and WIF. Both assets have tumbled by double digits (19% and $14%, respectively) to $1.47 and $1.62.

The cumulative market cap of all crypto assets has lost over $350 billion in two days and is down to $3.4 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Top Cardano (ADA) Price Forecasts: Further Decline or a Rise to a New ATH?

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TL;DR

  • Analysts highlight a potential breakout for ADA, supported by bullish chart patterns and upcoming developments for Cardano.
  • However, recent whale sales of millions of tokens could negatively affect the price.

The Bullish Scenario

Despite the solid start to the year, the past few days have not been kind to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has plummeted by around 9% on a 48-hour scale, while numerous altcoins have suffered even more substantial declines. 

Cardano’s ADA is one of those, with its valuation dumping by 20% since January 7. Currently, it trades at around $0.91 (per CoinGecko’s data), while its market capitalization fell well below $35 billion.

The popular X user Dan Gambardello, though, remains an optimist. Recently, he claimed that ADA has “one of the most bullish weekly pattern setups in crypto,” which represents an “inverse head and shoulders with upward sloping neckline.” Gambradello assumed that a breakout to the upside could result in a price rally to as high as $7.

Altcoin Daily chipped in, too. At the start of the year, they outlined bullish predictions about multiple cryptocurrencies, envisioning ADA’s valuation to hit $6.45 sometime in 2025. It is worth mentioning that the analyst said this target should not be taken for granted, suggesting that “any altcoin can theoretically go to zero at any time. They also warned people to invest only as much as they are ready to lose.

Meanwhile, Cardano is set to undergo some essential developments in the next 12 months that could trigger upward pressure on the price of the native token. Those willing to check what’s on the agenda can take a look at our dedicated video below:

How About a Further Pullback?

Contrary to the aforementioned bullish predictions, some factors signal that ADA could continue plunging in the near future. Earlier this week, the X user Ali Martinez revealed that whales have sold over 70 million tokens in the span of 48 hours.

Such actions from large investors increase the circulating supply of ADA and could be followed by a price decline (assuming demand doesn’t catch up with the pace). Additionally, the move may discourage smaller players and trigger a more substantial selling spree. 

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