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Forex

Dollar rebounds against euro before Powell speech

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By Karen Brettell

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The dollar rebounded from a 13-month low against the euro on Thursday before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on Friday and as the greenback’s recent weakness was seen as being overdone.

The U.S. currency has fallen on concerns about a weakening economy and on expectations the Federal Reserve is close to cutting interest rates. But the extent of the weakness, and whether it will lead the U.S. central bank to cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points at its September meeting, remains in question.

The odds of a cut of 50 basis points or more rose after July’s employment report showed fewer than expected jobs gains and an unanticipated increase in the unemployment rate, though this pricing has faded as other data points to better growth.

“The dollar has been under a lot of pressure recently but I think it’s getting to a place where it’s quite a bit oversold,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York.

“We’ve backed away a little bit from that sort of emergency place we got to after the payroll print, but the dollar seems to be pricing as if we’re still in that emergency state,” Bechtel said.

A mass unwind of carry trades, in which traders borrowed yen to finance U.S. asset purchases, added to market moves after the payrolls report and made the rate cut pricing more extreme.

Traders are now pricing in a 25% probability of a 50 basis point cut next month, down from 38% on Wednesday, and a 75% chance of a 25 basis point reduction, according to the CME Group’s (NASDAQ:) FedWatch Tool.

Traders will focus on Powell’s comments on Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming, symposium for any new clues on the size of the expected September rate cut and whether subsequent cuts are likely at each meeting thereafter.

Powell may be reluctant to offer too much detail, however, with August’s jobs and inflation data due after his speech, but before the Sept. 17-18 meeting.

Minutes from the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting released on Wednesday showed that a “vast majority” of officials said a September cut was likely.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Thursday he was on board with a September rate cut as long as the data performs as he expects it to and Boston Fed President Susan Collins also signaled her likely support.

Data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose in the latest week, but the level still suggested a gradual cooling of the labor market remains intact.

It comes a day after revised data for the year through March showed that U.S. employers added far fewer jobs than originally reported.

With Europe and the United Kingdom also facing soft growth outlooks and central bank rate cuts, Bechtel said weakness in the dollar relative to their currencies may have run too far.

“There’s no real reason for any big outperformance on the euro side at this point. I would argue pretty similar in the UK,” he said. “At the end of the day, the Fed, the (European Central Bank) and the Bank of England are going to be in the same ballpark when it comes to their easing cycles.”

The was last up 0.38% at 101.50. It reached 100.92 on Wednesday, the lowest since Dec. 28. The euro fell 0.36% to $1.111. It hit $1.11735 on Wednesday, the highest since July 2023.

Data earlier on Thursday showed that euro zone business activity showed surprising strength in August despite firms raising prices, while euro zone negotiated wage growth slowed last quarter.

Sterling hit a 13-month high against the greenback following a report showing that British business activity accelerated this month and cost pressures eased to their weakest in over three years.

Sterling was last up 0.02% at $1.3093, after earlier reaching $1.3130. It is approaching the $1.3144 top reached in July 2023, which, if broken, would take it to the highest level since April 2022.

The dollar strengthened 0.65% to 146.2 Japanese yen.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to discuss the central bank’s decision last month to raise interest rates when he appears in parliament on Friday.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 1.43% to $60,370.

Forex

Dollar retains strength ahead of payrolls; sterling slips again

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Investing.com – The US dollar edged higher Friday, holding on to recent gains ahead of the release of the highly influential monthly jobs report, while sterling continued to retreat.

At 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 109.040, on course for a weekly gain of 0.3%.

This would be its sixth consecutive weekly gain, its longest run since an 11-week streak in 2023. 

Dollar retains strength ahead of payrolls 

The dollar traded near its strongest levels since November 2022, holding on to recent gains as the US returned from a holiday to honor former President Jimmy Carter.

The focus was squarely on data for December, due later in the session, as traders look for more cues on the US economy and the future path of interest rates. 

The of the Fed’s December meeting, released on Wednesday, showed policy makers remain concerned over the potential for inflation to flare up again, especially given the likely impact of the expansionary and protectionist policies under President-elect Donald Trump.

US nonfarm payrolls data is expected to show the economy added 154,000 jobs in December on top of the 227,000 in November, with holding at 4.2%.

Anything stronger would add to the case for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, boosting the dollar.

“We think the balance of risks is tilted to the upside for the dollar today, as robust jobs figures could prompt markets to price out a March cut and potentially push the first fully-priced move beyond June,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“We would still argue that with inflation concerns back on the rise – although the Fedspeak has been quite heterogeneous on that topic – next Wednesday’s CPI report could have deeper market ramifications.”

Sterling set for hefty weekly loss

In Europe, edged higher to 1.0303, helped by data showing that rose 0.2% on the month in November, an improvement from the prior month’s drop of 0.3% and above the fall of 0.1% expected.

That said, the euro remains weak, with the European Central Bank widely expected to ease interest rates by around 100 basis points in 2025, around double the cuts expected by the US central bank, with the regional economy still very weak.

“Markets are pricing a good deal of negatives into the euro at this stage, and perhaps the euro may be penalised less than other G10 currencies should US payrolls come in strong today,” ING added.

traded 0.2% lower to 1.2285, with sterling on course to lose 1% this week after earlier falling to a 14-month low following a selloff in UK government bonds amid concern about British finances.

“We expect higher yields to act as an additional headwind to growth via household remortgaging and weaker investment,” said analysts at Goldman Sachs, in a note.

“The rise in gilt yields reinforces our view that UK growth will disappoint in 2025, with our 0.9% real GDP growth forecast notably below consensus (1.4%), the BoE (1.5%) and the OBR (2%).”

Yuan lacks support

In Asia, rose 0.3% to 7.3513, with the Chinese currency seeing continued weakness after soft inflation data for December, released earlier in the week. 

The prospect of trade tariffs under Trump also soured sentiment towards China. 

dropped 0.1% to 157.85, with the Japanese currency helped by the release of stronger-than-expected data earlier Friday.

This followed on from a bigger-than-expected increase in wage growth on Thursday, and has sparked increased speculation over a January interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. 

 

 

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Asia FX weakens with dollar near 2-year peak ahead of payrolls data

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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies weakened on Friday, while the dollar sat near its strongest level in over two years as traders braced for a potentially strong nonfarm payrolls reading due later in the day. 

Regional sentiment was also undermined by weak inflation data from China, while traders speculated over a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, although this provided only fleeting support to the yen.

The dollar moved little in overnight trade on account of a U.S. market holiday. But the greenback remained upbeat following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve earlier this week. 

Dollar steady near 2-yr high as nonfarm payrolls loom

The index and both firmed slightly in Asian trade, and were just below their strongest levels since November 2022.

Focus was squarely on data for December, due later on Friday, for more cues on the U.S. economy and interest rates. 

The greenback was buoyed by the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting, released on Wednesday, which reiterated the central bank’s warning that rates will fall at a slower pace this year.

The minutes also showed policymakers concerned over expansionary and protectionist policies under President-elect Donald Trump, which could underpin inflation in the long term.

Japanese yen weakens despite strong spending data 

The Japanese yen reversed Thursday’s gains and softened on Friday, with the pair rising 0.2% and remaining above the 158 yen level.

Stronger-than-expected data released on Friday sparked increased speculation over a January interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, especially as data released on Thursday showed a bigger-than-expected increase in .

Analysts expect a virtuous cycle of high wages, steady inflation and improving private consumption to spur more rate hikes by the BOJ in the coming months, potentially as soon as the BOJ’s late-January meeting.

But the yen saw fleeting support on this notion, as it came under pressure from the prospect of higher for longer U.S. interest rates.

Broader Asian currencies weakened on Friday on a similar notion, with traders turning especially averse towards the region before the nonfarm payrolls reading. 

The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.3%, with the currency seeing continued weakness after soft inflation data for December. The prospect of trade tariffs under Trump also soured sentiment towards China. 

The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% and was close to a two-year low, as mixed inflation data released earlier in the week fueled bets on earlier interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank.

The South Korean won’s pair rose 0.4% amid continued political strife in the country, while the Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1%.

The Indian rupee’s pair steadied below the 86 rupee level.

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Time to short dollar as latest surge suggest ‘Trump trade’ now priced in

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Investing.com — The surged to multi-year highs on Friday, hitting a level that an expert said would mark the pricing in of the ‘Trump Trade,’ leaving little room for further upside and creating an opportunity to turn bearish on the greenback.

The jumped 0.5% to to 109.67, and had earlier hit 109.91 — its highest level since November 2022.

“Start selling the dollar if our DXY 110 target is breached. Slowing global growth and a relatively more hawkish Fed have been priced in. So is a Donald Trump presidency,” Chester Ntonifor, Foreign Exchange/Global Fixed Income Strategist at BCA Research, said in a note.

The firm argues that this level would have fully priced in the “Trump-trade” and would be initiated from significantly overvalued levels.

The call for a weaker dollar comes as the strategist believes that “the bout of strength in US inflation, especially relative to other markets, is in its last innings,” amid expectations for a U.S. slowdown. 

While the latest jobs report for December signaled little sign of a slowdown, Ntonifor sees the risk of the U.S. economy slowing due to “tightening financial conditions in the US.”

Looking ahead, Ntonifor suggested that a potential scenario could unfold later this year where “equity markets correct, the US dollar declines, and bond yields fall.”

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