Connect with us
  • tg

Commodities

UBS sees near 20% upside potential in silver prices over the next year

letizo News

Published

on

Investing.com — continues to shine as an attractive asset for investors, driven by a mix of favorable macroeconomic factors. 

As per analysts at UBS, silver prices could see a significant rally, with a potential upside of nearly 20% over the next 12 months. 

The report mentions a combination of monetary easing, industrial demand recovery, and growing investor interest through ETFs as key factors that could propel prices higher.

Currently, silver is hovering around USD 32/oz, supported by global monetary policy easing and a weaker US dollar. 

The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points has instilled confidence in the markets that real rates will decline further. 

This environment of lower real rates is expected to bolster economic growth and fuel industrial demand for silver, which plays a critical role in sectors such as electronics, renewable energy, and medical technology. 

At the same time, the weakening of the US dollar, a common consequence of falling rates, typically supports higher silver prices. 

UBS forecasts that these dynamics will push silver to new highs, potentially reaching $36-38/oz by next year.

In addition to the influence of central banks, the broader recovery in global manufacturing is set to boost the demand for silver. 

As production picks up across various industries, the need for silver in industrial applications will likely increase, adding further upward pressure on prices. 

UBS notes that this rebound in manufacturing activity, combined with a more favorable interest rate environment, could lead to greater inflows into silver-focused exchange-traded funds. 

China’s economic policies are another critical factor in the bullish outlook for silver. The Chinese government has implemented a range of stimulus measures aimed at reviving its economy, which has been under strain in recent years. 

Given that China is one of the world’s largest consumers of silver, particularly for industrial use, these policies could provide a strong tailwind for silver prices. 

UBS believes that if these measures are successfully implemented and followed up with additional initiatives, they could significantly bolster demand for commodities like silver.

While silver has traded within a $26-32/oz range since the second quarter of this year, UBS expects this sideways movement to give way to a broader uptrend. 

The strategists foresee silver breaking out of this range and embarking on a more sustained rally, with a target price of $36-38/oz. The combination of rate cuts, monetary easing, and rising industrial demand sets the stage for silver to achieve these higher levels.

However, the analysts also caution that several risks could challenge their bullish outlook. One key risk is that the market has already priced in many of the expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. 

Any unexpectedly strong economic data, such as a positive payroll report, could temporarily strengthen the US dollar, putting downward pressure on silver prices. 

Additionally, while China has introduced numerous stimulus measures, not all have been successful in sparking a meaningful economic recovery. 

If consumer demand in China does not pick up, the rally in silver and other commodities could lose momentum. 

Furthermore, speculative positions in silver futures remain elevated, and a lack of positive news could prompt a pullback in these positions, dampening silver’s short-term prospects.

“For investors who are less confident of a rally in silver prices, we believe selling the downside for a yield pickup offers an alternative avenue to take silver exposure,” the analysts said. 

Commodities

Oil steady but on track for weekly drop on firmer supply outlook

letizo News

Published

on

By Paul Carsten

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices held steady on Friday but remained on track for a weekly fall as investors weighed expectations for increased output from Libya and the broader OPEC+ group against fresh stimulus from top importer China.

futures were up 8 cents, or 0.1%, at $71.68 per barrel as of 1130 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.78.

On a weekly basis, Brent was down almost 4%, while WTI was on track to lose nearly 6%.

“The recent decision by OPEC+ to ramp up production has only added to the gloom,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, adding that the oil market has been struggling with weakening demand over the past few months.

“While it’s uncertain whether Chinese stimulus will translate into higher fuel demand, it may still offer some respite to the oil market.”

China’s central bank on Friday lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system, aiming to pull economic growth back towards this year’s target of roughly 5%.

More fiscal measures are expected to be announced before Chinese holidays starting on Oct. 1 after a meeting of the Communist Party’s top leaders showed an increased sense of urgency about mounting economic headwinds.

Meanwhile, rival factions staking claims for control of the Central Bank of Libya signed an agreement to end their dispute on Thursday. The dispute had seen crude exports fall to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) this month from more than 1 million last month.

Separately, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together known as OPEC+, will go ahead with plans to increase production by 180,000 bpd each month starting from December, two OPEC+ sources said.

A Financial Times report on Wednesday said the planned increase is due to Saudi Arabia’s decision to abandon a $100 oil price target and gain market share.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Crude oil storage tanks are seen at Azzawiya oil refinery, in Zawiyah, west of Tripoli, Libya July 23, 2020. REUTERS/Ismail Zitouny/File Photo

Saudi Arabia has repeatedly denied targeting a certain oil price, and sources at the wider group told Reuters that the plans to raise output from December do not represent any major change from existing policy.

“These extra barrels will not make an unexpected re-appearance, have been accounted for in forecasts, and the move will entail a reduction in the group’s spare production capacity,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM.

Continue Reading

Commodities

Analysis-US Gulf Coast oil prices to take center stage as exports dominate

letizo News

Published

on

By Arathy Somasekhar

HOUSTON (Reuters) – Rising oil exports are boosting the prominence of Gulf Coast price benchmarks and buoying trading volumes on Houston contracts, eroding the significance of the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub.

Since U.S. WTI Midland crude oil transactions joined the dated price assessment a year ago, U.S. oil exports have overshadowed the role of Cushing as a storage and pricing hub, traders and analysts said.

Cushing has been the delivery and pricing point for West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) since 1983. The benchmark is currently used to price major U.S. crude grades for physical delivery, trading at a differential to WTI.

However, not long after the U.S. lifted its ban on crude exports in 2015 amid a shale boom that turned the country into the world’s top producer, both the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:) and CME Group (NASDAQ:), which owns NYMEX, launched contracts to trade and deliver crude from Midland, Texas, to terminals around Houston.

Average daily volumes on CME’s WTI Houston contract more than doubled so far in September to a record high year on year, the exchange said.

An all-time high of over 18 million barrels were delivered against ICE’s competing HOU contract, compared with less than 10 million barrels in August last year, ICE said.

Increasing liquidity in these contracts will create opportunities for hedging and arbitrage trades, leading to more deliveries in storage terminals in the region, and fewer into Cushing, oil market experts said.

“The physical market for U.S. production has already moved to the U.S. Gulf Coast, and now the futures market is following suit,” said Jeff Barbuto, global head of oil markets at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

While shale oil output from the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico, the largest U.S. oilfield, has surged 3.6% to average 6.1 million barrels per day (bpd) so far this year, much of that oil is heading to storage closer to Gulf Coast export ports, or to refiners in the region.

“Where the big trade flow of crude oil is from the Permian and comes across to Houston, it kind of bypasses Cushing,” said Colin Parfitt, a vice president at Chevron (NYSE:).

CME said that WTI continues to be the most liquid and significant benchmark and that Gulf Coast is an important and growing market.

Inventories at the Gulf Coast stood at about 235 million barrels last week, about 7% higher than levels at the start of 2016 after the export ban was lifted.

Cushing storage bounced off 11 month lows to 22.8 million barrels last week, near operational minimums, and was about 64% lower than the levels at the start of 2016.

“If someone were to say a year ago, that Cushing (stocks) would be at rock bottom, you would think oil would be at $100,” said James Cordier, founder of think tank Cordier Commodity Report. The U.S. benchmark was trading below $70 a barrel on Thursday.

COASTAL PRICES DOMINATE

The flagship price benchmark along the Gulf Coast, particularly for exports, is WTI at East Houston, also known as MEH as it represents WTI arriving by pipeline and traded at the Magellan’s East Houston (MEH) terminal.

“U.S. exports are around 4 million (barrels) a day and Midland priced at East Houston is really the barometer on how to price U.S. exports,” said Jeremy Irwin, senior oil markets analyst at researcher Energy Aspects.

“I don’t see any incentive to why you would want to necessarily store barrels at Cushing,” said Irwin. “What Cushing becomes is more of a flow-through hub, rather than a storage pricing hub.”

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The Houston Ship Channel and adjacent refineries, part of the Port of Houston, are seen in Houston, Texas, U.S., May 5, 2019.  REUTERS/Loren Elliott/File Photo

Oil basins feeding Cushing have also lost some of their sparkle. U.S. crude output growth from secondary shale oil basins in North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia have slowed. They historically helped fill Cushing’s hundreds of storage tanks.

Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline expansion also has siphoned some of the crude oil that would have flowed to Cushing.

Continue Reading

Commodities

Agriculture groups urge White House action ahead of possible ports strike

letizo News

Published

on

CHICAGO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Nearly 200 agriculture organizations on Friday morning urged the White House to address key U.S. agricultural supply chain issues in the face of a potential East and Gulf Coast port strike that could begin on Tuesday.

The groups said the industry is facing “imminent and severe shipping disruptions” from a potential work stoppage, snarled rail lines and historically low river levels backing up grain barge shipments and impacting trade with Mexico, according to a letter reviewed by Reuters.

The groups asked the federal government to direct the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to dredge the lower Mississippi River to maintain 12-foot-deep channels, and step in to reopen the movement of grain by rail from the U.S. to Mexico.

Continue Reading

Trending

©2021-2024 Letizo All Rights Reserved