Commodities
Metal lead price as of today: lead not heavy enough to rise in price
Heavy metal prices rose by 4% only during the last trading session, but even that is not enough to offset the 14% decline since the beginning of 2022. At the end of the previous trading session, the London metal exchange lead price rose by 3.57% to $1,993 per ton.
At the same time, according to TradeEconomics, lead has fallen by $322.75/ton, or 13.81% since the beginning of 2022. The outlook for the metal is heavily influenced by expectations of a recession in the global economy, which will reduce consumption of industrial metals in general. There was also a rise in lead metal prices in India.
Metal lead price adjustment
80% of modern lead is used in the manufacture of batteries. Lead is also often used to clad tanks where corrosive liquids are stored, and as protection against X-rays and gamma rays. Australia, China and the United States are the largest producers of lead, followed by Peru, Canada, Mexico, Sweden, Morocco, South Africa and North Korea.
Lead is also used in the construction industry and in the manufacture of munitions, fuel tanks, and pipelines. Because of its catalytic properties, lead is also used to convert chemical energy into electrical energy. However, in addition to all these advantages, lead has one significant disadvantage: It is very harmful to human health.
Lead will remain under pressure
After plummeting in June, the price dynamics on the market stabilized. Since early July, the price of LME lead futures has risen by 4.8% m/m to $1,998.5 per ton.
June saw an improvement in the Chinese auto market, which supported the lead market. Auto sales rose 23.8% YoY to 2.502 million units. Production was up 28.2% y/y to 2.499 million (CAAM data). This boosted demand for batteries and the secondary supply of lead.
In Europe and the U.S., the market for the metal remains tight – influenced by declining production due to expensive energy. Also, lower car production is limiting consumption. Auto sales in the EU fell 15.4% in June to a record low for the month (ACEA). Supply chain problems continue to limit car production.
At the same time, lead premiums in the European and American markets remained high and consumption in Europe showed a slight rebound –
Metal inventories at the LME are down 0.8% since the beginning of July, while lead prices at the Shanghai metal exchange are up 14.1%.
In the coming months, the lead market will remain under selling pressure due to the mass exodus of investors from the commodity markets because of changes in regulatory policies and expectations of a slowdown of the global economy. We can expect a small recovery in prices by the end of the year due to seasonal factors.
Metal lead price adjustment: Market is waiting for macroeconomic signals
Conditions were not too positive on Tuesday, July 19, before the opening of lead trading in London. Copper prices are down 0.5%, and European stock indices are also down 0.6-0.7%. All this suggests that the three-day bounce in lead prices of 8.5% from 1840 to 1998 dollars per ton we’ve seen since last Thursday will be interrupted today by a sensitive 0.5-0.7% drop in prices.
The main negative sentiment in the lead market continues to be fears of a global recession, exacerbated by persistent outbreaks of SOVID-19 in China. Given the zero tolerance policy of the Chinese authorities, this leads to expecting a double decrease in demand – both because of the global economic slowdown and, additionally, because of the epidemiological stoppages in the economy of the world’s largest consumer of lead (China accounts for 40% of global consumption of this metal).
Likely the reduction of lead prices will continue at least to the level of $1,600 per ton. This is another minus 20% from the current level of 1998 dollars per ton. This week, we can expect quotations to test last week’s lows of $1,850-1900 a ton again, and next week, in case this zone is broken down, the fall to the mid-term target will go on.
Commodities
Gold prices edge up, remains pressured by strong dollar after hawkish Fed
Investing.com– Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, extending their tepid performance as investors still remained cautious with the rising dollar following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.
Traders also refrained from placing large bets ahead of a shortened trading week due to the Christmas holiday.
inched up 0.2% to $2,616.95 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,633.89 an ounce.
The yellow metal had inched up 0.3% on Monday, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook.
Bullion under pressure on Fed rate outlook
Gold prices had hit a one-month low on Wednesday, as the Fed meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut.
Prices have failed to fully recover from it and have seen subdued moves as investors still assessed the implications of the Fed’s rate outlook.
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.
Traders are now expecting only two quarter-point reductions in 2025 amid continued economic resilience and still-elevated inflation. This compares to expectations of four rate cuts before the Fed meeting.
Strong dollar creates downward pressure on gold, other metals
The Fed’s hawkish shift provided renewed strength to the U.S. dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.
The rose 0.1% in Asia hours on Tuesday and hovered near a two-year high it reached last week.
A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Other precious metals were largely muted. inched up 1.2% to $960.15 an ounce, while gained 0.3% to $30.265 an ounce.
Copper subdued on strong dollar, seasonal factors
Among industrial metals, copper prices were subdued and moved within tight ranges on Tuesday as a strong greenback weighed on the red metal.
Analysts attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.
Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange were largely unchanged at $8,954.50 a ton, while one-month were 0.5% higher at $4.1045 a pound.
Commodities
Oil prices extend gains on fresh China stimulus measures, declining US inventories
Investing.com– Oil prices continued their uptrend in Asian Trade on Thursday after the Christmas holiday, bolstered by new stimulus measures in China and a drop in inventories.
At 06:01 ET (05:01 GMT), traded 0.5% higher to $73.97 a barrel, and also gained 0.5% to $70.01 a barrel.
Volumes were expected to be thin for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week.
Oil had risen more than 1% on Tuesday, and extended gains on Thursday after reports emerged around fresh stimulus measures from China.
China’s fresh stimulus measures support oil prices
Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals, permitting projects unless restricted by a cabinet-published list, to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.
China’s economic growth is a key factor influencing global oil prices due to its status as the largest oil importer. When China’s economy thrives, its demand for crude oil rises to fuel industries, transportation, and other energy-intensive activities, often driving up oil prices.
China’s economic recovery post-COVID-19 has faced significant hurdles, including weakening consumer confidence, faltering export demand, and a beleaguered property sector.
To counter the slowdown, Beijing has implemented several stimulus measures aimed at reviving growth.
Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, noted that oil prices are also being supported by anticipation of higher fossil fuel production and demand once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump assumes office next month.
US crude inventories shrink- API
US oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, media reports showed on Wednesday, citing the (API) data.
Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.
The figures come ahead of data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, due on Friday.
A Reuters poll on Tuesday projected that crude oil inventories likely declined by approximately 1.9 million barrels in the week ending December 20, with gasoline stocks expected to drop by 1.1 million barrels and distillate inventories by 0.3 million barrels.
Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.
Commodities
Gold prices rise on slightly weaker dollar, geopolitical tensions
Investing.com– Gold prices were higher in premarket trade on Thursday due to a slightly weaker dollar as markets returned to trading after the Christmas holiday, while gains were limited as investors remained cautious following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.
Traders also refrained from placing large bets in a holiday-shortened week, resulting in thin trade volumes.
rose around 0.4% to $2,626.53 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,641.6 an ounce by 07:55 am ET (12:55 GMT).
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contributed to bullion’s gains.
The Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel accused each other on Wednesday of hindering a ceasefire deal, with Hamas blaming Israel for imposing additional conditions and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alleging Hamas reneged on prior understandings.
Gold is seen as a safe haven asset amid uncertainties in the market.
US dollar weakens but remains nears 2-yr high
The has edged higher on Thursday but hovered near a two-year high it touched last week.
The Fed’s hawkish shift last week provided renewed strength to the dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.
A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Gold prices fell sharply last week after the Fed policy meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period.
Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds
The yellow metal has seen marginal moves this week, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook
Other precious were mixed on Thursday. declined 0.3% to $957.70 an ounce, while rose by 0.1% to $30.31 an ounce.
Copper edges up on China stimulus, strong dollar caps gains
Among industrial metals, prices gained after a Reuters report showed that Chinese authorities plan to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy.
The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.
Analysts also attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.
The most-traded January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rose 0.2% to 74,220 yuan a ton.
Benchmark copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange were closed on Thursday for the holiday.
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