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Metal lead price as of today: lead not heavy enough to rise in price

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london metal exchange lead price

Heavy metal prices rose by 4% only during the last trading session, but even that is not enough to offset the 14% decline since the beginning of 2022. At the end of the previous trading session, the London metal exchange lead price rose by 3.57% to $1,993 per ton. 

At the same time, according to TradeEconomics, lead has fallen by $322.75/ton, or 13.81% since the beginning of 2022. The outlook for the metal is heavily influenced by expectations of a recession in the global economy, which will reduce consumption of industrial metals in general. There was also a rise in lead metal prices in India. 

Metal lead price adjustment

80% of modern lead is used in the manufacture of batteries. Lead is also often used to clad tanks where corrosive liquids are stored, and as protection against X-rays and gamma rays. Australia, China and the United States are the largest producers of lead, followed by Peru, Canada, Mexico, Sweden, Morocco, South Africa and North Korea. 

Lead is also used in the construction industry and in the manufacture of munitions, fuel tanks, and pipelines. Because of its catalytic properties, lead is also used to convert chemical energy into electrical energy. However, in addition to all these advantages, lead has one significant disadvantage: It is very harmful to human health.

Lead will remain under pressure

After plummeting in June, the price dynamics on the market stabilized. Since early July, the price of LME lead futures has risen by 4.8% m/m to $1,998.5 per ton.

June saw an improvement in the Chinese auto market, which supported the lead market. Auto sales rose 23.8% YoY to 2.502 million units. Production was up 28.2% y/y to 2.499 million (CAAM data). This boosted demand for batteries and the secondary supply of lead.

In Europe and the U.S., the market for the metal remains tight – influenced by declining production due to expensive energy. Also, lower car production is limiting consumption. Auto sales in the EU fell 15.4% in June to a record low for the month (ACEA). Supply chain problems continue to limit car production.

At the same time, lead premiums in the European and American markets remained high and consumption in Europe showed a slight rebound –

Metal inventories at the LME are down 0.8% since the beginning of July, while lead prices at the Shanghai metal exchange are up 14.1%. 

In the coming months, the lead market will remain under selling pressure due to the mass exodus of investors from the commodity markets because of changes in regulatory policies and expectations of a slowdown of the global economy. We can expect a small recovery in prices by the end of the year due to seasonal factors. 

Metal lead price adjustment: Market is waiting for macroeconomic signals

Conditions were not too positive on Tuesday, July 19, before the opening of lead trading in London. Copper prices are down 0.5%, and European stock indices are also down 0.6-0.7%. All this suggests that the three-day bounce in lead prices of 8.5% from 1840 to 1998 dollars per ton we’ve seen since last Thursday will be interrupted today by a sensitive 0.5-0.7% drop in prices.

The main negative sentiment in the lead market continues to be fears of a global recession, exacerbated by persistent outbreaks of SOVID-19 in China. Given the zero tolerance policy of the Chinese authorities, this leads to expecting a double decrease in demand – both because of the global economic slowdown and, additionally, because of the epidemiological stoppages in the economy of the world’s largest consumer of lead (China accounts for 40% of global consumption of this metal).

Likely the reduction of lead prices will continue at least to the level of $1,600 per ton. This is another minus 20% from the current level of 1998 dollars per ton. This week, we can expect quotations to test last week’s lows of $1,850-1900 a ton again, and next week, in case this zone is broken down, the fall to the mid-term target will go on.



Commodities

Oil prices dip on US interest rate jitters, Middle East uncertainty

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Investing.com– Oil prices fell Tuesday on concerns high U.S. interest rates will eat into demand this year, amid continued uncertainty in the Middle East. 

At 08:15 ET (12:15 GMT),  fell 1.8% to $82.17 a barrel, while fell 1.9% to $77.77 a barrel. 

US rate fears cloud demand outlook 

Fears of high-for-longer U.S. rates were a key point of pressure for crude markets, after a string of Fed officials warned of such a scenario amid sticky inflation.

Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday that it was too early to tell if the slowdown is “long lasting,” and Vice Chair Michael Barr noted that restrictive policy needs more time, dulling hopes for early cuts.

There are more Fed speakers to digest Tuesday, including Barr once more, as well as FOMC members Thomas Barkin, John Williams and Raphael Bostic, ahead of the release of the  of the Fed’s late-April meeting on Wednesday.

High rates are expected to dull activity in the largest economy in the world, likely hitting crude demand, while also limiting money for investment and economic growth, which usually support oil demand. 

The International Energy Agency last week trimmed its outlook for crude demand this year, citing concerns over weaker economic conditions due to pressure from interest rates. 

On the flip side, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries maintained its demand forecast, citing strength in top exporter China. 

China has been a point of confidence for oil demand, especially as Beijing rolled out a string of stimulus measures in recent weeks to support growth. 

Political uncertainty in Middle East

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who was seen as a successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash over the weekend, while there are concerns over the health of Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz after Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman deferred a trip to Japan.

While these events have not had an impact on supplies yet, they have created a degree of political uncertainty in two major oil-producing countries.

OPEC meeting awaited for more cues

Oil markets were also awaiting an in June, where the cartel, along with its allies including Russia, will discuss output policy, including whether to extend the voluntary supply cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day from mainly Saudi Arabia.

The group, known as OPEC+, could well extend some voluntary cuts past their initial June-end deadline if demand fails to pick up.

“As the market waits for clarity from OPEC+ on its output policy for the second half of the year, there are some signs of weakness in the market,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“Refinery margins have been trending lower for some time, raising the prospect of cuts in refinery runs, particularly in Asia. In addition, the physical crude market is also weaker.” 

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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Commodities

Copper prices hit record highs, here’s what Morgan Stanely sees as a bull case

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Investing.com– Copper prices are set to see some near-term volatility after surging to record highs in recent sessions, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note, although the red metal is still expected to push higher this year. 

A mix of strong demand-supply fundamentals and outsized speculative trading drove stellar gains in over the past few sessions, putting prices at lifetime highs.

Bulls expect copper demand to increase in the coming months amid a greater global push into green energy and electrification, and that copper mines will be unable to meet this increased demand.

This notion was a key driver of copper gains, and also triggered a short squeeze on the Comex, which furthered copper’s rally. on the London Metal Exchange hit a record high of $11,101.50 a ton on Monday. 

But copper prices fell sharply from these records on Tuesday, with MS analysts stating that the red metal was set for some near-term volatility after the abrupt gains. 

Still, they expect the red metal to rally further in 2024, and presented a bull case of $13,125 a ton for LME copper, along with a base case of $10,500 a ton. 

MS analysts said the physical copper market was likely tighter than initially anticipated, especially amid low U.S. inventory and staggered China shipping. 

The growing popularity of artificial intelligence, and the industry’s large energy requirement is also expected to drive up copper demand. Copper plays a key role in electricity transmission infrastructure. 

“We remain bullish on copper as persistent supply challenges widen our deficit for 2024,which looks set to persist into 2025. Demand and narrative tailwinds from data centres/AI should also boost participation, with long positioning rising,” MS analysts wrote in a note.

China is the world’s biggest copper importer, and is expected to see an economic rebound in 2024 on sustained stimulus support from Beijing. Such a scenario is expected to push up the country’s appetite for copper, although weakness in the property market may limit its demand. 

 

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Gold prices fall from record highs as rate fears persist; copper retreats

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Investing.com– Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Tuesday, retreating from record highs as some easing uncertainty over Iran cooled safe haven demand for the yellow metal, while pressure from concerns over U.S. interest rates persisted. 

Among industrial metals, a rally in copper, to record highs, also reversed course on Tuesday amid some profit-taking, and as traders gauged just how much potential the red metal had this year. 

Gold surged to a record high on Monday, benefiting from increased safe haven demand as traders feared some geopolitical instability in the Middle East after Iran’s President was killed in a helicopter crash. But the immediate impact of his death remained unclear. 

fell 0.5% to $2,413.77 an ounce, while expiring in June fell 0.9% to $2,416.75 an ounce by 00:59 ET (04:59 GMT). Spot gold hit a record high of nearly $2,450 on Monday. 

Gold stalls as safe haven demand ebbs, rate fears persist

The lack of any major instability in the Middle East sapped safe haven demand for gold, leaving it more vulnerable to concerns over U.S. interest rates.

A string of Federal Reserve officials warned on Monday that the central bank needed much more convincing that inflation was easing before it could begin trimming interest rates. The central bank is likely to keep rates high for longer.

The firmed as markets now positioned for the of the Fed’s late-April meeting, due Wednesday, which in turn pressured broader metal prices and cut short a rally in prices.

High-for-long interest rates diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold by increasing the opportunity cost of investing in them.

Other precious metals also sank on Tuesday. fell 1.6% to $1,042.60 an ounce, while fell 2.5% to $31.628 an ounce. But both metals retained a bulk of their gains made through the past few sessions.

Copper comes off record highs

Copper prices retreated sharply from record highs made on Monday, as investors stepped back to see just how much potential the red metal had this year. 

Copper’s recent rally was sparked chiefly by a speculative frenzy over a potential supply deficit of the red metal, which in turn had caused a short squeeze on the Comex exchange and triggered even more gains. 

But these gains were seen cooling on Tuesday, with focus on whether copper shipments could be sourced in time to meet immediate demand. 

on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.3% to $10,825.0 a ton, after hitting a record high above $11,100 on Monday.

fell 1.1% to $5.0510 a pound, also retreating from record highs. 

 

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