Commodities
Oil prices drift up with focus on Middle East
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
By Paul Carsten
LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices edged up on Tuesday as uncertainty over fighting in the Middle East kept markets on edge, but gains were capped by concerns that continued high interest rates may weigh on energy demand.
futures were up 54 cents to $82.54 a barrel at 1224 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 50 cents at $77.42 a barrel. Saudi state oil company Aramco (TADAWUL:) has started trading WTI, which underpins the global Brent benchmark.
Oil prices were near flat in Monday’s trade, after gaining 6% last week.
The conflict in the Middle East has kept prices elevated. U.S., Egyptian, Israeli and Qatari officials were expected to meet in Cairo on Tuesday to seek a truce in Gaza as more than a million civilians crammed into a southern corner of the Palestinian enclave, waiting in fear for an Israeli assault.
“Oil prices have been numbed into submission by what has transpired, or not, in the Middle East,” said John Evans of oil broker PVM in a note on Tuesday.
One “untoward act, missile or sudden peace agreement and crude prices will move $10/barrel”.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis have kept up their attacks in the Red Sea, claiming solidarity with Palestinians and striking vessels with commercial ties to the U.S., Britain and Israel since mid-November.
But changing expectations over the path of U.S. interest rates have limited price gains, with recent central banker comments dashing market speculation of rate cuts early this year.
The New York Fed’s January Survey of Consumer Expectations showed the outlook for inflation a year and five years from now remained above the Fed’s 2% target rate.
If inflation worries delay Fed interest rate cuts, that could dampen economic growth and hit oil demand.
U.S. inflation data is expected on Tuesday, while British inflation and euro zone gross domestic product data should land on Wednesday. Germany, the powerhouse of Europe’s economy, is not in recession and is expected to grow in 2024, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s chief of staff, Wolfgang Schmidt, said on Tuesday.
inventories figures are also due later on Tuesday, with analysts estimating they rose an average of about 2.6 million barrels in the week to Feb. 9.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is scheduled to release its monthly oil market report on Tuesday. Its secretary general said on Tuesday he believes the long-term oil demand outlook is robust.
The group’s next major decision will come in March, when it and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, will decide whether to extend voluntary oil production cuts.
“Our balance sheet suggests that the market will be in surplus in the second quarter of 2024 if the group fails to roll over part of these cuts,” ING analysts said in a Tuesday note.
(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for OPEC+ oil production saying it now expects three months of production increases starting from December instead of October, the bank said in a note on Friday.
OPEC+ has agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November, the producers group said on Thursday after crude prices hit their lowest in nine months, adding it could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed.
However Goldman Sachs maintained its range of $70-85 per barrel and a December 2025 Brent forecast at $74 per barrel.
The investment bank expects the effects of a modest reduction in OPEC+ supply in the upcoming months to be counterbalanced by easing effects from the current softness in China’s demand and faster-than-expected recovery of Libya’s supply.
“We still see the risks to our $70-85 range as skewed to the downside given high spare capacity, and downside risks to demand from weakness in China and potential trade tensions,” Goldman Sachs said.
Brent crude futures were down $1.63, or 2.24%, to $71.06 a barrel on Friday, their lowest level since December 2021. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.48 on Friday, or 2.14%, to $67.67, their lowest since June 2023. [O/R]
Investing.com — Oil prices settled lower Friday, ending the week with a loss as weaker U.S. nonfarm payrolls stoked concerns about an economic-led slowdown in crude demand.
At 2:30 p.m. ET (1430 GMT), the futures (WTI) traded fell 2.1% to settle at $67.67 a barrel, while contract fell 2.2% to $71.06 per barrel.
U.S. economic slowdown worries resurface after weak jobs report
The US economy added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, but rose from a sharply revised July figure, according to Labor Department data that could factor into the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 142,000 last month, up from a downwardly-revised mark of 89,000 in July. Economists had called for a reading of 164,000, up from the initial July mark of 114,000.
Following the release, bets that the Fed will introduce a deeper 50 basis-point rate cut — rather than a shallower 25 basis-point reduction — increased.
Concerns about the demand come just a day after OPEC+ said it had agreed to postpone a planned increase in oil production for October and November.
U.S., Europe working on Iran sanctions
Geopolitical tensions ratcheted up on Friday after the U.S. and Europe they were working on sanctions to impose on Iran after the Tehran sent missiles to Russia.
The U.S. had previously warned Iran about transferring missiles to Russia, saying it would represent a major escalation in Iran’s support of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Investing.com — Oil prices settled lower Friday, ending the week with a loss as weaker U.S. nonfarm payrolls stoked concerns about an economic-led slowdown in crude demand.
At 2:30 p.m. ET (1430 GMT), the futures (WTI) traded fell 2.1% to settle at $67.67 a barrel, while contract fell 2.2% to $71.06 per barrel.
U.S. economic slowdown worries resurface after weak jobs report
The US economy added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, but rose from a sharply revised July figure, according to Labor Department data that could factor into the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.
Nonfarm payrolls came in at 142,000 last month, up from a downwardly-revised mark of 89,000 in July. Economists had called for a reading of 164,000, up from the initial July mark of 114,000.
Following the release, bets that the Fed will introduce a deeper 50 basis-point rate cut — rather than a shallower 25 basis-point reduction — increased.
Concerns about the demand come just a day after OPEC+ said it had agreed to postpone a planned increase in oil production for October and November.
U.S., Europe working on Iran sanctions
Geopolitical tensions ratcheted up on Friday after the U.S. and Europe they were working on sanctions to impose on Iran after the Tehran sent missiles to Russia.
The U.S. had previously warned Iran about transferring missiles to Russia, saying it would represent a major escalation in Iran’s support of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
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