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Commodities

Oil prices settle up slightly on Iran worries, but prices down for week

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By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices edged up on Friday on reports Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraq in coming days, but record U.S. output weighed on prices.

futures were up 29 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $73.10 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 23 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $69.49. At their session highs, both benchmarks were up over $2 a barrel.

Brent posted a weekly decline of about 4% with WTI down about 3%.

On Thursday, U.S. news website Axios reported that Israeli intelligence suggests that Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraq within days, citing two unidentified Israeli sources.

“Any additional responses from Iran might remain restrained, similar to Israel’s limited strike last weekend, hence primarily intended as a demonstration of strength rather than an invitation to open warfare,” said SEB Research analyst Ole Hvalbye.

Iran and Israel have engaged in a series of tit-for-tat strikes within the broader Middle East warfare set off by fighting in Gaza. Previous Iranian air attacks on Israel on Oct. 1 and in April were mostly repelled, with only minor damage.

Iran is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and produced about 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in 2023, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed.

Iran was on track to export around 1.5 million bpd in 2024, up from an estimated 1.4 million bpd in 2023, according to analysts and U.S. government reports.

Iran backs several groups that are currently fighting Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.

A U.S. official asked Lebanon to declare a unilateral ceasefire with Israel to revive stalled talks to end Israeli-Hezbollah hostilities, a senior Lebanese political source and a senior diplomat said – a claim denied by both sides.

Oil prices were also supported by expectations OPEC+ could delay December’s planned increase to oil production by a month or more on concern over soft oil demand and rising supply. A decision could be made as early as next week.

OPEC+ includes OPEC and its allies like Russia and Kazakhstan.

As OPEC+ holds back on production, U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil (NYSE:) said its global output hit an all-time high, while Chevron (NYSE:) said its U.S. production hit a record high.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said this week that drillers pulled a record 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil out of the ground. EIA also said this week that output in August hit a record 13.4 million bpd, and has said that annual output was on track to hit a record 13.2 million bpd in 2024 and 13.5 million bpd in 2025.

U.S. JOB GROWTH STALLS

U.S. job growth almost stalled in October as labor strikes in the aerospace industry depressed manufacturing employment while hurricanes impacted the response rate for the payrolls survey, making it hard to get a clear picture of the labor market ahead of next week’s presidential election.

Polls show the U.S. presidential race is a toss-up between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican former President Donald Trump as the country’s next president.

Economists said they expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next Thursday.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS/File Photo

After hiking rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to tame a surge in inflation, the Fed started to lower rates in September.

Lower rates decrease borrowing costs, which can boost economic growth and demand for oil.

Commodities

Gold prices edge up, remains pressured by strong dollar after hawkish Fed

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Investing.com– Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, extending their tepid performance as investors still remained cautious with the rising dollar following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.

Traders also refrained from placing large bets ahead of a shortened trading week due to the Christmas holiday.

inched up 0.2% to $2,616.95 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,633.89 an ounce.

The yellow metal had inched up 0.3% on Monday, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook.

Bullion under pressure on Fed rate outlook

Gold prices had hit a one-month low on Wednesday, as the Fed meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period after Wednesday’s cut. 

Prices have failed to fully recover from it and have seen subdued moves as investors still assessed the implications of the Fed’s rate outlook. 

Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds.

Traders are now expecting only two quarter-point reductions in 2025 amid continued economic resilience and still-elevated inflation. This compares to expectations of four rate cuts before the Fed meeting.

Strong dollar creates downward pressure on gold, other metals

The Fed’s hawkish shift provided renewed strength to the U.S. dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.

The  rose 0.1% in Asia hours on Tuesday and hovered near a two-year high it reached last week.

A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Other precious metals were largely muted. inched up 1.2% to $960.15 an ounce, while gained 0.3% to $30.265 an ounce.

Copper subdued on strong dollar, seasonal factors

Among industrial metals, copper prices were subdued and moved within tight ranges on Tuesday as a strong greenback weighed on the red metal.

Analysts attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.

Benchmark on the London Metal Exchange were largely unchanged at $8,954.50 a ton, while one-month were 0.5% higher at $4.1045 a pound.

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Commodities

Oil prices extend gains on fresh China stimulus measures, declining US inventories

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Investing.com– Oil prices continued their uptrend in Asian Trade on Thursday after the Christmas holiday, bolstered by new stimulus measures in China and a drop in inventories.

At 06:01 ET (05:01 GMT), traded 0.5% higher to $73.97 a barrel, and also gained 0.5% to $70.01 a barrel.

Volumes were expected to be thin for the remainder of the holiday-shortened week.

Oil had risen more than 1% on Tuesday, and extended gains on Thursday after reports emerged around fresh stimulus measures from China. 

China’s fresh stimulus measures support oil prices

Chinese authorities have decided to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Moreover, China is allowing local officials to broaden investments with key government bonds and simplifying approvals, permitting projects unless restricted by a cabinet-published list, to better utilize public funding for economic growth, a government document showed on Wednesday.

China’s economic growth is a key factor influencing global oil prices due to its status as the largest oil importer. When China’s economy thrives, its demand for crude oil rises to fuel industries, transportation, and other energy-intensive activities, often driving up oil prices. 

China’s economic recovery post-COVID-19 has faced significant hurdles, including weakening consumer confidence, faltering export demand, and a beleaguered property sector.

To counter the slowdown, Beijing has implemented several stimulus measures aimed at reviving growth.

Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, noted that oil prices are also being supported by anticipation of higher fossil fuel production and demand once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump assumes office next month.

US crude inventories shrink- API

US oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, media reports showed on Wednesday, citing the (API) data.

Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—fell by about 2.5 million barrels.

The figures come ahead of data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, due on Friday.

A Reuters poll on Tuesday projected that crude oil inventories likely declined by approximately 1.9 million barrels in the week ending December 20, with gasoline stocks expected to drop by 1.1 million barrels and distillate inventories by 0.3 million barrels.

Ayushman Ojha contributed to this report.

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Commodities

Gold prices rise on slightly weaker dollar, geopolitical tensions

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Investing.com– Gold prices were higher in premarket trade on Thursday due to a slightly weaker dollar as markets returned to trading after the Christmas holiday, while gains were limited as investors remained cautious following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt.

Traders also refrained from placing large bets in a holiday-shortened week, resulting in thin trade volumes.

rose around 0.4% to $2,626.53 per ounce, while expiring in February ticked up 0.2% to $2,641.6 an ounce by 07:55 am ET (12:55 GMT).

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contributed to bullion’s gains. 

The Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel accused each other on Wednesday of hindering a ceasefire deal, with Hamas blaming Israel for imposing additional conditions and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alleging Hamas reneged on prior understandings.

Gold is seen as a safe haven asset amid uncertainties in the market.

US dollar weakens but remains nears 2-yr high

The has edged higher on Thursday but hovered near a two-year high it touched last week.

The Fed’s hawkish shift last week provided renewed strength to the dollar, as higher interest rates make the greenback more attractive due to increased returns on dollar-denominated assets.

A stronger dollar often weighs on gold prices as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Gold prices fell sharply last week after the Fed policy meeting indicated that rates will remain higher for a longer period.

Higher interest rates put downward pressure on gold as, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds

The yellow metal has seen marginal moves this week, after losing more than 1% in the previous week, reflecting uncertainty about the metal’s outlook

Other precious were mixed on Thursday. declined 0.3% to $957.70 an ounce, while rose by 0.1% to $30.31 an ounce.

Copper edges up on China stimulus, strong dollar caps gains

Among industrial metals, prices gained after a Reuters report showed that Chinese authorities plan to issue a record-breaking 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, in an intensified fiscal effort to stimulate a struggling economy.

The red metal failed to fully capitalize on this news, as a strong dollar weighed.

Analysts also attributed the weakness in copper to seasonal sluggishness as industrial production and construction projects often slow down as businesses and projects prepare for year-end closures and holidays.

The most-traded January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)  rose 0.2% to 74,220 yuan a ton.

Benchmark copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange were closed on Thursday for the holiday.

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