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Commodities

Oil prices soar as Middle East tensions rise; US inventories due

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Oil prices soar as Middle East tensions rise; US inventories due
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Investing.com — Oil prices rose Wednesday as the killing of a senior Hamas leader raised concerns that the conflict between Israel and Hamas could widen, increasing the likelihood of supply disruptions through the crucial Red Sea region.

By 09:10 ET (14.10 GMT), the futures traded 1.1% higher at $71.12 a barrel and the contract climbed 1.2% to $76.82 a barrel.

Rising tensions in Red Sea

The Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri was killed in a drone strike in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, in a further sign that the nearly three-month war between Israel and Hamas was spreading across the region.

Israel has neither confirmed nor denied that it killed the highly ranked Hamas leader, but it has kept up its assault on the Gaza Strip on Wednesday while Houthi rebels have also continued to attack vessels in the Red Sea.

A wider conflict could close crucial waterways for oil transportation, adding a premium to the market.

“While the geopolitical situation is a concern for the oil market, a fairly comfortable oil balance over the first half of 2024 does help to ease some of these worries,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

U.S. inventories due 

The global oil balance has been impacted by U.S. production coming in at record highs in recent weeks, resulting in the market being less tight than initially expected in the first quarter of 2024. 

U.S. crude stockpiles from the industry group are due later Wednesday, a day later than usual due to Monday’s New Year’s holiday, ahead of the official data on Thursday.

A series of builds in U.S inventories over the past few weeks have rattled oil markets, especially as rising gasoline and distillate stockpiles pointed to cooling fuel demand in the largest consumer in the world.

OPEC+ to meet in February – Bloomberg

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, will hold a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting in early February, according to Bloomberg, with the members keen to discuss the state of the oil market.

“However, given the scale of cuts we are already seeing, it will be increasingly difficult for the group to cut more if needed over the course of 2024. Already, the last few rounds of cuts have been driven by voluntary reductions from individual members rather than group wide cuts – a sign that it is becoming more difficult to get all members on board to cut,” ING added.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

 

Commodities

Gold and silver to continue to appreciate – Julius Baer

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Investing.com – With another day of gains in and futures, the Swiss group Julius Baer has decided to change its outlook on commodities to constructive. The group now believes that both metals have the potential for further increases, as stated in a note sent to clients and the market on Friday morning.

The group mentioned that, in addition to U.S. monetary policy, the gold market is still dominated by Asia. “We have to recognize that the region’s willingness to pay for gold as a hedge against economic and geopolitical risks appears even greater than we expected,” said Carsten Menke, head of next-generation research at Julius Baer.

Weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data have revived hopes for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed, the U.S. central bank), boosting gold and silver prices. This could “be the missing incentive for safe-haven seekers in the Western world to return to the markets,” he added.

Central Bank Purchases in Focus

Central banks have been buying gold more for geopolitical reasons than economic ones, according to Julius Baer. In China, for example, there is a desire to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar – important for avoiding potential sanctions.

The People’s Bank of China is believed to be responsible for at least 30% to 50% of all central bank purchases over the past two years. Although it shows signs of being price-sensitive, “its willingness to pay has increased as gold prices rise,” notes Julius Baer. It is expected that other monetary authorities will follow the same steps, moving away from the U.S. dollar.

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Commodities

Goldman Sachs discusses what’s next for natural gas prices

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Over the past three weeks, US prices have surged 30% to above $2.50 per million British thermal units (mm/BTU), fueled by production declines and increased feedgas demand for liquified natural gas (LNG) exports.

Moreover, recent producer cuts, maintenance events, and Freeport LNG’s normalization of gas demand post-outage have contributed to this rise. Cheniere’s announcement of no heavy maintenance for its liquefaction trains this year also supports higher prices.

In a Thursday note, Goldman Sachs strategists said the return of gas prices above $2/mmBtu aligns with their expectations, as production curtailments “would ultimately lead to lower storage congestion risks for this summer.”

“That said, we see only limited further upside from current levels, with stronger gas prices risking a return of congestion concerns,” they added.

Goldman notes that prices above $2/mmBtu reduce gas competitiveness compared to coal, with a $0.50/mmBtu increase potentially cutting gas demand by 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), especially in shoulder months.

Moreover, higher prices may prompt the restart of previously shut-in wells. EQT (ST:), the largest producer in the Appalachia region, indicated it would resume production if prices sustainably exceed $1.50/mmBtu. And while Appalachia prices haven’t risen as much as NYMEX, the local hub has averaged $1.44/mmBtu month-to-date, up 10¢ from last month, strategists highlighted.

Elsewhere, European gas prices have also risen this summer, though less sharply than in the US.

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices increased 18% over the past three months to around 30 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh), holding steady in May.

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However, unlike the US market, this rally lacks fundamental support, with Northwest (NW) European gas storage at record-high levels, Goldman strategists pointed out.

“To be sure, NW European LNG imports have remained weak relative to last year – and are likely to get weaker in the coming weeks owing to a seasonal decline in global LNG production, exacerbated by outages at Australia’s Gorgon export project,” they said.

“Going forward, we expect healthy non-European demand for LNG to continue to incentivize a decline in European LNG imports vs last year,” they continued.

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Commodities

Gold prices trim some weekly gains on tempered rate cut hopes

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Investing.com– Gold prices fell slightly on Friday, trimming some of their gains for the week as comments from a slew of Federal Reserve officials offered a more sobering outlook on interest rate cuts. 

The yellow metal had risen to nearly $2,400 an ounce this week in the immediate aftermath of some soft U.S. economic readings. But it pulled back from these levels on Thursday and Friday.

steadied at $2,377.40 an ounce, while expiring in June fell slightly to $2,381.10 an ounce by 00:19 ET (04:19 GMT). 

Gold retreats as Fed officials downplay rate cuts, but weekly gains due

The yellow metal fell on Thursday after a string of Fed officials cautioned against bets on immediate reductions in interest rates. 

Several members of the central bank’s rate setting committee said the central bank will need much more convincing that inflation was coming down beyond a marginally soft inflation reading for April. 

This saw traders begin pricing out some expectations for a rate cut in September. The and also rebounded from earlier losses this week. 

Still, some softer-than-expected readings put gold on course for a 0.7% weekly gain. 

The yellow metal was also in sight of a record high of above $2,430 an ounce, although it appeared unlikely the level would be met in the near-term. 

Other precious metals retreated on Friday, but were set for bumper weekly gains. fell 0.2% but were trading up 6.2% for the week, while fell 0.4% but were up 4.5% this week. 

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Copper mixed amid middling China cues

Among industrial metals, one-month copper futures tumbled from two-year highs tracking middling economic data. But three-month copper futures pushed higher and were set for a stellar week as markets bet on tighter supplies and an eventual demand recovery in the coming months. 

on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.6% to $10,445.0 a ton, while rose 0.3% to $4.8935 a pound. 

Data from China on Friday painted a mixed picture of the economy. While grew more than expected, growth slowed and shrank at an accelerated pace. Growth in Chinese also slowed.

The readings presented a muddled outlook for the world’s biggest copper importer, as it rolled out more stimulus measures to shore up growth.

Three-month copper futures gained on the prospect of a demand recovery, and were up nearly 4% this week. They were also at two-year highs. 

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