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Commodities

Oil prices surge ahead on tight supplies; OPEC+ maintains output levels

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Investing.com– Oil prices continued to power ahead Wednesday, as signs of shrinking U.S. inventories and more potential supply disruptions in Russia presented a tighter outlook for global crude markets, while OPEC+ kept the status quo. 

At 09:05 ET (13:05 GMT),  expiring in June rose 0.8% to $89.67 a barrel and rose 0.7% to $85.79 a barrel, both rising to their highest levels since October.

OPEC+ keeps output levels unchanged

OPEC+ ministers made no fresh policy recommendations in a meeting earlier Wednesday, as a ministerial committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, led by Russia, met to review the market and members’ implementation of output cuts.

OPEC+ members last month agreed to extend voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of June to support the market.

This tightening of global supply is occurring amid fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East. Iran vowed retaliation against Israel for strikes on the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus, presenting the possibility of more supply disruptions in this oil-rich region. 

Elsewhere, oil prices had risen earlier this week after Mexico said it will also cut its oil exports, and Ukraine attacked Russia’s third-largest oil refinery earlier this week, although Reuters reports said the attack did not cause critical damage.

But the strike comes in the wake of several such attacks against Russia’s energy infrastructure – a trend that could potentially further stymie oil exports from Moscow. 

Expectations of tighter supplies helped oil prices rise past a stronger dollar and growing uncertainty over the path of U.S. interest rates.  

US oil inventories seen shrinking – API 

Data from the , released Tuesday, showed that inventories shrank nearly 2.3 million barrels in the week to March 28, compared with expectations for a draw of 2 million barrels.

While the reading comes after an out-sized 9.3 million barrel build in the prior week, it is also the third weekly draw in inventories over the past four weeks. 

These draws pushed up expectations that U.S. oil markets were tightening, especially amid increased exports to fill the supply gap left by Russia and the OPEC. 

Demand in the world’s largest fuel consumer was also seen picking up with the summer driving season approaching.

The official data from the is due later on Wednesday.

BofA lifts its oil price forecasts

Bank of America Global Research has raised its 2024 and WTI oil price forecasts, citing escalating geopolitical tensions and the OPEC+ producer group maintaining supply curbs.

The bank now expects Brent and WTI crude prices this year to average $86 and $81 per barrel respectively, with prices of both peaking around $95 per barrel during the summer.

“We now estimate that improving economic growth expectations have helped push global oil markets into a deficit in 2Q24 and 3Q24 of ~450 thousand barrels per day” BofA said in a research note, which did not include its previous forecasts.

“Geopolitical turmoil has also boosted oil demand via longer trade routes and impacted supply by reducing refining capacity via attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.” the bank said.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

Commodities

Gold prices sink below $2,300 as markets brace for hawkish Fed

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Investing.com– Gold prices fell in Asian trade on Wednesday, extending steep overnight losses that saw the yellow metal slide past a key support level as markets braced for potentially hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve later in the day.

The yellow metal fell further from record highs hit in April as diminished safe haven demand, amid some de-escalation in global geopolitical tensions, left it vulnerable to headwinds from interest rates.

fell 0.1% to $2,285.19 an ounce, while expiring in June fell 0.3% to $2,295.25 an ounce by 23:50 ET (03:50 GMT). Spot prices fell below the closely-watched $2,300 an ounce level on Tuesday, leaving the yellow metal open to more losses before more cues on U.S. interest rates.

Fed meeting awaited, Powell to wax hawkish 

Focus was now squarely on the conclusion of a two-day later on Wednesday, where the central bank is set to keep rates unchanged. 

But Fed Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to offer a hawkish outlook, especially after a string of hotter-than-expected inflation readings. A stronger-than-expected reading on the , for the first quarter, furthered this notion on Tuesday. 

Strong inflation readings saw traders steadily price out expectations of early rate cuts by the Fed. The central bank is now only expected to begin cutting rates by September, if at all.

Higher-for-longer interest rates bode poorly for gold, given that they increase the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal. Dwindling expectations of rate cuts dragged gold prices down from record highs over the past two weeks. 

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Other precious metals also fell on Wednesday, as the dollar shot up to near six-month highs.  fell 0.2% to $943.95 an ounce, while fell 0.2% to $26.598 an ounce.

Copper prices fall from two-year highs after stellar April

Among industrial metals, copper prices fell from two-year highs amid pressure from a stronger dollar, while stellar gains through April also made for some profit-taking. 

on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.8% to $9,910.0 a ton, while fell 0.3% to $4.5285 a pound.

Both contracts surged between 14% and 16% in April on expectations of tighter supplies, amid more sanction on Russia and production cuts by major Chinese refiners. 

But fears of slowing economic growth- especially as interest rates remain higher for longer- may chip away at copper in the near-term.

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Commodities

Oil falls for a third day on Middle East ceasefire hopes

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By Alex Lawler and Deep Kaushik Vakil

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil fell more than 1% on Wednesday, losing ground for a third straight session on hopes of a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East and by rising crude inventories and production in top consumer the United States.

Expectations that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas could be in sight have grown following a renewed push led by Egypt, even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to go ahead with a long-promised assault on Rafah.

futures for July were down $1.24, or 1.4%, to $85.09 a barrel by 1145 GMT, having hit $84.78, their lowest since March 15.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for June were down $1.33, or 1.6%, to $80.60, after touching their lowest since March 21.

“The crude market is weighed down by continued hopes for a ceasefire,” said Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank.

“In addition, stubborn U.S. inflation has further reduced rate cut expectations.”

U.S. Federal Reserve officials are concluding their latest two-day policy meeting on Wednesday and are expected to hold interest rates steady. A rate cut would act as a boost to economic growth and fuel demand.

“Continued signs of inflation also raised concerns about demand for crude oil. This comes ahead of the U.S. driving season, where demand for gasoline rises strongly,” ANZ analysts said in a report on Wednesday.

Further weighing on prices were separate reports that inventories rose and production increased.

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U.S. crude inventories rose 4.906 million barrels in the week ended April 26, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures, which defied expectations for a decline of 1.1 million barrels.

Traders will be waiting to see if official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) at 1430 GMT confirms the trend.

On Tuesday, the EIA said U.S. production rose to 13.15 million barrels per day (bpd) in February from 12.58 million bpd in January, its biggest monthly increase in about 3-1/2 years.

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Oil prices sink on surprise US inventory build; Middle East peace talks eyed

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Investing.com– Oil prices fell sharply Wednesday, extending recent losses as an unexpected build in U.S. stockpiles and strong crude production sparked doubts over tight supply conditions ahead of the Fed meeting.

At 08:25 ET (12:25 GMT), fell 1.4% to $85.15 a barrel, while fell 1.6% to $80.61 a barrel, dropping to their lowest levels since mid-March.

U.S. inventory build, strong output weighs

Data from the American Petroleum Institute, released on Tuesday, indicated that U.S. grew by 4.9 million barrels in the week to April 26, a far greater build than the increase of 1.5 million barrels expected.

While gasoline and distillate stockpiles shrank, if this rise in overall inventories id confirmed by , due later in the session, it would suggest that oil supplies were not as tight as initially expected in the world’s biggest fuel consumer. 

This notion was reinforced by separate data showing U.S. domestic crude output rose to 13.15 million barrels per day in February from 12.58 million barrels in January, its biggest jump since October. The rise also saw U.S. production come back in sight of record highs. 

This spurred doubts over just how tight global crude markets would be in the coming months, given that U.S. output remains robust and the country’s oil markets remain well supplied. 

Fed fears in play, dollar strength weighs 

Markets were also on edge ahead of the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting of the Federal Reserve later in the day.

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While the central bank is widely expected to , Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to strike a hawkish note following a series of strong inflation readings.

Expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates saw the dollar rise sharply this week, which also weighed on oil prices, with prolonged exposure to elevated interest rates likely to weigh on economic activity by the world’s largest consumer.

Middle East peace talks

A potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could also further downplay expectations of tighter markets, as it would lower the risks of supply disruptions in the key oil-rich Middle East. 

Expectations that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas could be in sight have grown following a renewed push led by Egypt.

“The geopolitical risk premium continues to fade as tensions between Israel and Iran have eased. There are also some hopes for a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)

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