Commodities
Oil rises more than $1 a barrel on tighter supply outlook
By Laila Kearney
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices jumped more than $1 a barrel on Thursday, closing out the month higher on the prospect of OPEC+ staying the course on production cuts, ongoing attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure and a falling U.S. rig count tightening crude supplies.
Brent crude futures for May settled at $87.48 a barrel, its highest level since Oct. 27, after gaining $1.39, or 1.6%. The more actively traded June contract settled at $87 a barrel, rising $1.58, with the May contract expiring on Thursday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May delivery settled at $83.17 a barrel, rising $1.82, or 2.2%.
On the week, Brent rose 2.4% and WTI gained about 3.2%. Both benchmarks finished higher for a third consecutive month.
In the prior session, oil prices had come under pressure from last week’s unexpected rise in oil and gasoline inventories, driven by an increase in crude imports and sluggish gasoline demand, according to Energy Information Administration data.
However, the crude stock increase was smaller than the build projected by the American Petroleum Institute, and analysts noted the increase was lower than expected for the time of year.
“We … expect U.S. inventories to rise less than normal in reflection of a global oil market in a slight deficit,” SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said. “This will likely hand support to the price going forward.”
U.S. refinery utilisation rates, which rose 0.9 percentage point last week, also supported prices.
The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, also fell by three to 621 in the week to March 28, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes.
The U.S. economy, meanwhile, grew faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter. Gross domestic product increased at a 3.4% annualized rate from the previously reported 3.2% pace, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said.
“The strength in the stock market suggests strong forward earnings that are, in turn, hinting at a surprisingly strong US economy conducive toward better than expected energy product demand,” said Jim Ritterbusch of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates.
Inflation data also affirmed the case for the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold off on cutting its short-term interest rate target, a Fed governor said on Wednesday, but he did not rule out trimming rates later in the year.
“The market is converging on a June start to cuts for both the Fed and the European Central Bank,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note. Lower interest rates typically support oil demand.
Investors will watch for cues from a meeting next week of the Joint Monitoring Ministerial Committee of producer group the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Increased geopolitical risk has raised expectations of possible supply disruption, but OPEC+ is unlikely to make any oil output policy changes until a full ministerial gathering in June.
Attacks by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure have also boosted the sentiment around global crude supplies tightening and helped to support oil prices, said Again Capital LLC partner John Kilduff.
“It’s a prime target, and they appear to have not heeded the ask by the Biden administration to not attack Russian energy infrastructure,” Kilduff said.
By Shariq Khan
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices rose in Asian trading hours on Friday, with global benchmark Brent set for its first weekly increase in three weeks on signs of improving global demand and slowing inflation in top oil consumer the United States.
prices rose 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $83.48 a barrel by 0018 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $79.41 a barrel.
Brent futures are set to rise about 1% on a weekly basis, and WTI futures are set to gain 1.4%.
Recent declines in oil and refined products inventories at major global trading hubs have created optimism over oil demand growth, reversing a trend of rising stockpiles that had weighed heavily on prices in prior weeks. Through Thursday, Brent crude futures were down around 10% from this year’s peak of $92.18 a barrel on April 12.
U.S. oil and fuel inventories fell last week, while Singapore’s middle distillate fuel stocks dropped to a near three-month low this week. In Europe’s Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp trading hub, gasoline stocks were down 7.5% in the week to Thursday, data from consultancy Insights Global showed.
Recent economic indicators from the United States have fed into the optimism over global demand. U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in April, data showed on Wednesday, boosting expectations of lower interest rates in the country.
Those expectations were further bolstered by data on Thursday that showed a stabilizing U.S. job market.
remove ads
.
Lower interest rates could help soften the U.S. dollar, which would make oil cheaper for investors holding other currencies and drive demand.
“Financial markets now have placed the most bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which would continue to temper the dollar strength and shift that strength over to commodities and equities,” StoneX oil analyst Alex Hodes said on Thursday.
Over the past three weeks, US prices have surged 30% to above $2.50 per million British thermal units (mm/BTU), fueled by production declines and increased feedgas demand for liquified natural gas (LNG) exports.
Moreover, recent producer cuts, maintenance events, and Freeport LNG’s normalization of gas demand post-outage have contributed to this rise. Cheniere’s announcement of no heavy maintenance for its liquefaction trains this year also supports higher prices.
In a Thursday note, Goldman Sachs strategists said the return of gas prices above $2/mmBtu aligns with their expectations, as production curtailments “would ultimately lead to lower storage congestion risks for this summer.”
“That said, we see only limited further upside from current levels, with stronger gas prices risking a return of congestion concerns,” they added.
Goldman notes that prices above $2/mmBtu reduce gas competitiveness compared to coal, with a $0.50/mmBtu increase potentially cutting gas demand by 1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), especially in shoulder months.
Moreover, higher prices may prompt the restart of previously shut-in wells. EQT (ST:), the largest producer in the Appalachia region, indicated it would resume production if prices sustainably exceed $1.50/mmBtu. And while Appalachia prices haven’t risen as much as NYMEX, the local hub has averaged $1.44/mmBtu month-to-date, up 10¢ from last month, strategists highlighted.
Elsewhere, European gas prices have also risen this summer, though less sharply than in the US.
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices increased 18% over the past three months to around 30 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh), holding steady in May.
remove ads
.
However, unlike the US market, this rally lacks fundamental support, with Northwest (NW) European gas storage at record-high levels, Goldman strategists pointed out.
“To be sure, NW European LNG imports have remained weak relative to last year – and are likely to get weaker in the coming weeks owing to a seasonal decline in global LNG production, exacerbated by outages at Australia’s Gorgon export project,” they said.
“Going forward, we expect healthy non-European demand for LNG to continue to incentivize a decline in European LNG imports vs last year,” they continued.
Investing.com– Gold prices fell slightly on Friday, trimming some of their gains for the week as comments from a slew of Federal Reserve officials offered a more sobering outlook on interest rate cuts.
The yellow metal had risen to nearly $2,400 an ounce this week in the immediate aftermath of some soft U.S. economic readings. But it pulled back from these levels on Thursday and Friday.
steadied at $2,377.40 an ounce, while expiring in June fell slightly to $2,381.10 an ounce by 00:19 ET (04:19 GMT).
Gold retreats as Fed officials downplay rate cuts, but weekly gains due
The yellow metal fell on Thursday after a string of Fed officials cautioned against bets on immediate reductions in interest rates.
Several members of the central bank’s rate setting committee said the central bank will need much more convincing that inflation was coming down beyond a marginally soft inflation reading for April.
This saw traders begin pricing out some expectations for a rate cut in September. The and also rebounded from earlier losses this week.
Still, some softer-than-expected readings put gold on course for a 0.7% weekly gain.
The yellow metal was also in sight of a record high of above $2,430 an ounce, although it appeared unlikely the level would be met in the near-term.
Other precious metals retreated on Friday, but were set for bumper weekly gains. fell 0.2% but were trading up 6.2% for the week, while fell 0.4% but were up 4.5% this week.
remove ads
.
Copper mixed amid middling China cues
Among industrial metals, one-month copper futures tumbled from two-year highs tracking middling economic data. But three-month copper futures pushed higher and were set for a stellar week as markets bet on tighter supplies and an eventual demand recovery in the coming months.
on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.6% to $10,445.0 a ton, while rose 0.3% to $4.8935 a pound.
Data from China on Friday painted a mixed picture of the economy. While grew more than expected, growth slowed and shrank at an accelerated pace. Growth in Chinese also slowed.
The readings presented a muddled outlook for the world’s biggest copper importer, as it rolled out more stimulus measures to shore up growth.
Three-month copper futures gained on the prospect of a demand recovery, and were up nearly 4% this week. They were also at two-year highs.
Forex2 years agoForex Today: the dollar is gaining strength amid gloomy sentiment at the start of the Fed’s week
- Forex2 years ago
How is the Australian dollar doing today?
- Forex1 year ago
Unbiased review of Pocket Option broker
- Forex2 years ago
Dollar to pound sterling exchange rate today: Pound plummeted to its lowest since 1985
- Cryptocurrency2 years ago
What happened in the crypto market – current events today
- World2 years ago
Why are modern video games an art form?
- Stock Markets2 years ago
Morgan Stanley: bear market rally to continue
- Economy2 years ago
Crude oil tankers double in price due to EU anti-Russian sanctions
